Notice the significance of 1.2625 (13 January 2012 low) in order to understand the movements / reactions when EUR/USD reaches that level. I believe that upward breakout and prevalence can lead us to 1.2830-1.2900.
So far we have seen 4 consecutive approaches and upward "breakout", which I consider false breakout because every time EUR/USD "breakout" this level upwards could not prevail over it but instead reacted violently and downwards. Personally, I would consider a clean victory when I see 2 daily candles gains over 1.2625. In this single case I will make long entry at the first opportunity with the targets mentioned above.
Conclusion: I remain bearish as long as EUR/USD is below 1.2625 with target at1.2180. Prevalence over 1.2625 would make me bullish with targets at 1.2830-1.2900.
Spyros you'd better work in a hedge fund. Your level is very high for all of us here! Thank you for posting at this topic, we learn enough from you. Bye!
I know this is the EURUSD tech thread and I defo do not want to encourage other assets on this page at all but.......
This ED on FTSE looks pretty ominious to me - those are 8hr & 1 day bolly's up to 2.5SD - comes with a 1-2 EW count too, so a wave 3 down perhaps. Maybe our descender on the EURUSD is leading?
I am staying covered on the EURUSD hoping for a spike up in a stubby 5th (?) and shorted the FTSE from here. No place to take any risks me thinks.
Starting to look like a good call this - USDCHF & USDCAD breaking out to the upside and FTSE pushing the boundary.
The 240min SMI has been treating me well of late. It's oversold or overbought areas provide a time to reflect, accepting at all times, that it can stay in this position for sometime rolling over and over.
However, although we have been anticipating a triangle in wave 4 since Monday, I am posting an alternative here based on the expectation of that 1.2850 ish retrace and the shape of the waves given the SMI placement.
I am going for an overall zigzag here, ABC, with this C wave making up an 'abc' too. 'c' of C just about to start? Alternative red channel drawn in on 240min chart for reference.
A move above the daily pivot would be a good start! Good luck today.
Last edited by Clivewaverider; 07-05-2012 at 02:49 AM.
We are on a ledge here at 1.2495 - see first left hand chart. My 1hr & 4hr SMI's are down low but the 8hr is coming down too, following the daily and 8hr bolly bounce (white and blue channels respectively). Next target is 1.2426, if not bounce from here - alternatively, 1.2565 would still keep price in that descending channel and if the 60min SMI is overbought there, I'll go net short.
The first right hand daily chart shows the 1.2594 line being the centre of attention, looking like the triangle at the moment, and the daily SMI is in sell mode for now. Combined with the 2 day Hull turning pink for 'down' in the first left chart and given the FTSE (second chart) is still looking ripe for a sell off to at least 5576, I think the next ledge down for the EURUSD is more likely than up first, but I'll take either!
The target lines on the charts are the gann/pyrapoint time squaring calcs from key pivots.
Thank you for a brilliant start of this year – making this forum the best spot on the web for traders that are genuinely interested in trading. With your different approaches and heated discussions, you give rise to a unique place on the web.
To make it an even better place to share ideas we will be updating some of the threads which will cause some broken links it’s therefore important that you bookmark the link to the forum main page which is the following link http://forexforums.dailyfx.com
For the EUR/USD and GBP/USD sections we are also forced to create new threads as the old ones are just too big. For EUR/USD we have these new threads
So please use the new threads starting from Monday July 9 2012 as the old ones will be closed.
Feel free to reach out to me or Gregory McLeod if you have any questions regarding these changes or have ideas on how to improve the interaction on the forum.
I am looking for and hoping to play this last move down as the last part of a 'b' wave down in an expanded flat - now the 'c' wave up to close all the gaps and complete the 'wave 4'!
With all the changes to the threads and where to post, I am just a little confused, so I am going to take a break from the forums here at Daily FX and wish you all well.
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Originally Posted by captester 
