The Purely Technical EUR/USD Trading Thread

[RISKMAN]

I have been trained to use Fibs with my commodity trades and have applied the same to stocks and currencies. It is not unusual for a retrace to 50% to be passed over for a further out future date but I have always stuck to the plan that a fib must continue adjusting its high until the 50% retrace is hit before moving on to a new short term fibonacci set-up. Now this is not my only trading tool, but it has been the most reliable for identifying entries and exits. On the HR chart, the low of 1.2294 on 8/20/12 with the fib top moving further and further up without a 50% retrace displays an 876 pip bull move. That is quite substantial, but it sets the carried Fib 50% retrace to 1.2732. WILL THIS BE THE COMPLETION OF THIS FIB?

[HellboyFX]

i think it's time to buy with T/p on 1,3130.
pair couldn't go down until 1,3000, so it means that bulls come back

Like your play - seems we got some traction going here....

[HellboyFX]

EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3170/75 Strong offers/$1.31729 NY high Monday/$1.3175 Barrier
$1.3150 Option expiry
$1.3130-35 Option expiries/$1.3120-30 medium offers
$1.3122 Recovery high off NY low at $1.3083 (at NY close)
$1.3120 Int.Day high Asia
$1.3100 Option expiry
$1.3065 ***Current mkt rate 1044GMT Tuesday
$1.3047 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.3090
$1.3020/00 Strong demand/$1.3000 Option expiry/Stops
$1.2980 Friday Sep14 low (Asia)/Strong demand
$1.2950 Medium demand/Option expiry
$1.2935/30 Strong demand
$1.2900 Medium demand on approach
$1.2855/50 Strong demand/Pullback low seen into FOMC
$1.2829 Tech 200-dma

Hi Cody

MANY THANKS for these!

Where do you get them from - I will most definitely appreciate these - is there some updated site or something?

[CodyB]

Hand drawn possibilities here on ES..we all know where the EU goes if the ES follows this

[CodyB]

Hi Cody

MANY THANKS for these!

Where do you get them from - I will most definitely appreciate these - is there some updated site or something?

They are all part of the paid services I get daily. I'm glad you like them, they do come in handy I find

[CodyB]

Since December 2009 there have been 12 times when - as over Wednesday and Thursday - EUR/USD has rallied by less than 25 pips one day, then fallen by at least 1.00 cent the following day: Of the 12, only one ended 'day 3' with a net gain of more than 30 pips

EUR/USD finished Thursday 1.20 cents lower at 1.2950

It was the biggest daily fall since the 1.50 cent drop of Thursday 2nd August 2012, exactly 7 weeks earlier
A close on Friday below 1.3140 would end a run of 5 successive weeks of gains (over which EUR/USD had rallied 8.40 cents)

Resistance is expected on Friday first at 1.3000/20, and then at 1.3080 and up at 1.3120: Look for support at 1.2870/75 and 1.2845

[Spyros]

Hand drawn possibilities here on ES..we all know where the EU goes if the ES follows this

CodyB we use the same software! I am very pleased with this soft.

[CodyB]

[QUOTE=CodyB;1336505]$index says we are headed higher after this correction....you do not stand in front of Central Bankers when their desires have been voiced Charts to follow tomorrow

Fund bias is improving but not bullish at this time. Strong support now falls at the 128 level. Look for support to build[/QUOTE

nothing more to add to this, I am still looking for higher prices in the EU. The $index is the key and it shows more $ weakness to come.

[Clivewaverider]

I have posted this in my Daily Journal too. I have found viewing at 125% or 150% better for the charts.

Have a great week everyone.

[CodyB]

$index view suggests that decline from 84.10 is unfolding as an impulse, shorter cyles suggest move is incomplete and am expecting downtrend to resume either from current levels or a marginal new high above last week's high to about 79.77. As rallies remain capped below 80.00, expect downtrend to resume as $index continues to unwind at start of the move. Look to sell strength and look to buy dips in EURUSD which can resume the uptrend from current levels or after making a new low below 1.2918. Even in case of a new low below 1.2918, weakness should be limited and uptrend should resume. I'm expecting at least 2 if not 3 more highs above 1.3170 to complete the cycle from 1.2040.
3199/3232/3269/3286 are all fib numbers from fri high. I am building longs all stops at 2750. This is my last week of trading until next year. It has been a good year and there is no need to risk profits. I have a new Granddaughter that I fully intend to spoil.
my next target is 3315 the 88.2 on the weekly chart of the 3485/2042. Make note that the yrly PP is at 3579. Will we make it there?

$index sustained break of the 80 level and I'll rethink my outlook

The Asian markets were mixed on the week losing 0.3%. China remains in a downtrend since May, and Singapore is trying to confirm a new uptrend.

The European markets were also mixed losing 0.7% on the week. All indices remain in uptrends.

The Commodity equity group were all lower on the week for a 2.0% loss. All indices remain in uptrends as well.

The uptrending DJ World index lost 0.7% on the week.

Bonds have been in a downtrend since early June, but gained 0.7% on the week.

Crude had quite a selloff this week losing 6.0%. That negative divergence certainly took its toll.

Gold continues to uptrend and gained 0.1% on the week.

The USD remains in a downtrend, was quite oversold recently when it reached support at 78+, but gained 0.6% on the week.



Trade Smart

[CodyB]

Despite ending the week lower, last week was the 8th week in a row that EUR/USD had held the low from the previous week: This sequence last extended to 9 weeks (and on to 13 weeks) on 5th May 2006

EUR/USD finished Friday at 1.2990, up 40 pips on the day, but still showing a net loss for the week of 1.50 cents

It was the biggest weekly fall seen for 11 weeks, and ended a run of 5 weeks of gains, over which EUR/USD had added 8.40 cents (6.8%)

EUR/USD ended last week lower only after posting a new 20 week high at 1.3175 in last Monday's session

Above 1.3025/30, look for resistance on Monday at 1.3055/65 and 1.3090/1.3105: Below 1.2940, support is expected at 1.2910/20 and 1.2870/85

[CodyB]

EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3048 Friday Sep21 high/$1.3047 50% $1.3173-1.2920
$1.3020 Minor offers
$1.3000 Medium offers
$1.2990 Int.Day high Asia
$1.2980 Medium offers
$1.2972 Recovery high off $1.2928
$1.2917 Recovery high off $1.2897
$1.2902 ***Current mkt rate 1014GMT Monday
$1.2897 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.2928
$1.2890/85 Medium demand
$1.2885/80 Stops
$1.2855/50 Strong demand/Pullback low seen into FOMC
$1.2829 Tech 200-dma
$1.2816 Wednesday Sep12 low
$1.2810/00 Medium demand

[CodyB]

EU posted its first weekly loss for 6 weeks last week, ending 1.50 cents (1.1%) lower at 1.2990. EU had rallied a total of 8.40 cents (6.8%) over the previous 5 weeks. Despite posting a weekly fall, EU ended last week still 25 pips above the midpoint of the previous week’s trading range, and it was also the 8th week in a row that EU had held the previous week’s low. On a less positive note, of the 14 times in the last 12 months that EU has posted a net weekly loss of 0.75% or more, none recovered to close the following week more than 70 pips above Monday’s open.

[CodyB]

EURUSD Support 1.2920 1.2880 1.2820/30 Resistance 1.3040/50 1.3080 1.3120 1.3180

[CodyB]

Option expiries for today's 1000EDT cut,
Euro-dollar; $1.2925, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3125