The Purely Technical EUR/USD Trading Thread

[Luxuriant]

Preforms better when left lip is higher, and with short handles. Short term bullish continuation. Low failure rate. But a short term rise. Handle should take at least a week to form. Pull backs to the handle are common after a break out. But normally breaks out again farther. Cups should be formed at the minimum in 7 weeks. We shall see

Peace

[Luxuriant]

Would have been better to go non-technical.

Not sure what your trying to say binufrancis.

[mrsforex]

week is over ))) it's time to relax

[Robert Eckert]

Resistance now at: 1.2990. Intermediate target: 1.2663. Somewhere around 1.273, there should be significant reactions to the move.



Until such time that 1.30 be revisited, there's no reason to be long. Good luck!

I re-entered short at 1.2960, hoping for a little gap-down over the weekend and maybe a bearish continuation next week. You think it is ready to fall some, and not have a big pull-back until it has seen a 1.27(low) handle?

[Paul Chin]

I re-entered short at 1.2960, hoping for a little gap-down over the weekend and maybe a bearish continuation next week. You think it is ready to fall some, and not have a big pull-back until it has seen a 1.27(low) handle?

Dear Mr Robert Eckert,

Thank you for asking, I'm honored!

First of all, I must clarify this before I continue: If I can answer your question directly, I would probably have thrown in all my fortune, and borrow millions of loan from bank to make that bet. I'm not doing that, so what I'll do is try to answer you as far as probability is concerned.

My view hasn't changed a bit from previous week - as long as 1.3 is not broken and hold above, we are in a downtrend. Your short entry at 1.2960 has a very good chance to be profitable, so is the probability of a gap-down. However, price action dictates the cloud, and support and resistance changed accordingly.




First support will be around 1.2905, and there should be some struggling in the initial stage to push down, probably may even take the whole of monday to do it. The next level of support will be the previous low of 1.2822 - This is the support that I weren't expecting last week - 66.7% of my target of 1.2662. I were expecting strong retracement to occur only around 1.273. Once this is cleared as well, then yes, 100% target of 1.2662 shall be met.

If it is any reassurance to you, I still have one short at 1.29317 not closed yet.



Good luck to both of us!

[CodyB]

Have done marked it as strong support
Thank you

after looking over Fridays moves this was indeed pivotal and a sustained break will carry us higher again. I have not completed my outlook but still expect a marginally higher high at a min.

[CodyB]

The Asian markets were mixed on the week for a net loss of 1.1%. Japan confirmed a downtrend after a diagonal triangle uptrend.
The European markets were all lower for a net loss of 1.9%. No downtrend confirmations yet.
The Commodity equity group were all lower on the week for a net loss of 1.0%. No downtrend confirms here as well.
The DJ World index lost 2.0% on the week and has not confirmed a downtrend.
Bonds remain in a choppy downtrend but gained 0.3% on the week.
Crude is still in a downtrend, but did find support with the positive divergence and gained 1.8% on the week.
Gold continues to look like it has started a downtrend, losing 1.6% on the week.
The USD may have bottomed at its first attempt at DXY 79 support. It gained 0.4% on the week.

[Andie]

I do not post much but I do read the forum daily. I was so optimistic about my trade plan for next week but reading your analysis of the charts I'm back to the drawing board to see if there is something I missed. I like using the longer time frame such as the daily's to see direction of breakout. No doubt there is going be breakout and I suspect next week. There is a flag formation on dailys which suggest to me there will be a continuation of current trend which is bullish. I suspect one more touch down to 127.98-128.30 and then breakout will happen north. I also see a chart posted by luxuriant of a cup and handle formation where the handle is now been formed. This also supports my views of a northern breakout. What am i missing here, I will take the breakout in any direction but I cant find enough evidence of it going south. I trade on my own instincts but like hear someone elses views. Thank you.

Dear Mr Robert Eckert,

Thank you for asking, I'm honored!

First of all, I must clarify this before I continue: If I can answer your question directly, I would probably have thrown in all my fortune, and borrow millions of loan from bank to make that bet. I'm not doing that, so what I'll do is try to answer you as far as probability is concerned.

My view hasn't changed a bit from previous week - as long as 1.3 is not broken and hold above, we are in a downtrend. Your short entry at 1.2960 has a very good chance to be profitable, so is the probability of a gap-down. However, price action dictates the cloud, and support and resistance changed accordingly.




First support will be around 1.2905, and there should be some struggling in the initial stage to push down, probably may even take the whole of monday to do it. The next level of support will be the previous low of 1.2822 - This is the support that I weren't expecting last week - 66.7% of my target of 1.2662. I were expecting strong retracement to occur only around 1.273. Once this is cleared as well, then yes, 100% target of 1.2662 shall be met.

If it is any reassurance to you, I still have one short at 1.29317 not closed yet.



Good luck to both of us!

[Robert Eckert]

If I can answer your question directly, I would probably have thrown in all my fortune, and borrow millions of loan from bank to make that bet. I'm not doing that, so what I'll do is try to answer you as far as probability is concerned.

Nothing is certain but death, taxes, and the market doing something unexpected.

My view hasn't changed a bit from previous week - as long as 1.3 is not broken and hold above, we are in a downtrend. Your short entry at 1.2960 has a very good chance to be profitable, so is the probability of a gap-down. However, price action dictates the cloud, and support and resistance changed accordingly.

First support will be around 1.2905, and there should be some struggling in the initial stage to push down, probably may even take the whole of monday to do it.

If it gives me 50 or so pips my way before stalling for a while, I will be happy.

The next level of support will be the previous low of 1.2822 - This is the support that I weren't expecting last week - 66.7% of my target of 1.2662. I were expecting strong retracement to occur only around 1.273. Once this is cleared as well, then yes, 100% target of 1.2662 shall be met.

As a rabbi of my acquaintance always used to say, "From your lips to God's ears!"

[Luxuriant]

I re-entered short at 1.2960, hoping for a little gap-down over the weekend and maybe a bearish continuation next week. You think it is ready to fall some, and not have a big pull-back until it has seen a 1.27(low) handle?

I have been long. But closed out on Friday because it did not break 1.30. I think it needs to break 1.30 for me to turn bullish again. So you may be on the right path Robert. I posted that bullish cup and handle. But it must break above the lip to be valid.
Peace

[Paul Chin]

I do not post much but I do read the forum daily. I was so optimistic about my trade plan for next week but reading your analysis of the charts I'm back to the drawing board to see if there is something I missed. I like using the longer time frame such as the daily's to see direction of breakout. No doubt there is going be breakout and I suspect next week. There is a flag formation on dailys which suggest to me there will be a continuation of current trend which is bullish. I suspect one more touch down to 127.98-128.30 and then breakout will happen north. I also see a chart posted by luxuriant of a cup and handle formation where the handle is now been formed. This also supports my views of a northern breakout. What am i missing here, I will take the breakout in any direction but I cant find enough evidence of it going south. I trade on my own instincts but like hear someone elses views. Thank you.

If your "instinct" is telling you to go long, you may wish to wait for 1.3 to be taken out first before committing, because the upside will be quite wide. My humble opinion. Good luck!

[sebas]

I Guess the daily chart is showing probability of touching 1.3028 level.but rest of all time frame from 4 hour till 30 M all showing weakness. the H chart showing chance of 1.2934 and weekly chart too start to show weakness.
If a fall comes 1.2835 look like a decent support.
any move above 1.2965 means i feel we are going towards 1.3028.
gold decent support exist at 1747 levels i guess, and a move towards 1762.
for gold , Monday opening is very important.A move above 1758 means it can once again move towards 1769 levels.

[CodyB]

I Guess the daily chart is showing probability of touching 1.3028 level.but rest of all time frame from 4 hour till 30 M all showing weakness. the H chart showing chance of 1.2934 and weekly chart too start to show weakness.
If a fall comes 1.2835 look like a decent support.
any move above 1.2965 means i feel we are going towards 1.3028.
gold decent support exist at 1747 levels i guess, and a move towards 1762.
for gold , Monday opening is very important.A move above 1758 means it can once again move towards 1769 levels.

I would be careful looking for longs in gold..GOLD expecting at least 1734. Below 1725 and 1700 will happen

[sebas]

Quote Originally Posted by sebas View Post
I Guess the daily chart is showing probability of touching 1.3028 level.but rest of all time frame from 4 hour till 30 M all showing weakness. the H chart showing chance of 1.2934 and weekly chart too start to show weakness.
If a fall comes 1.2835 look like a decent support.
any move above 1.2965 means i feel we are going towards 1.3028.
gold decent support exist at 1747 levels i guess, and a move towards 1762.
for gold , Monday opening is very important.A move above 1758 means it can once again move towards 1769 levels.
I would be careful looking for longs in gold..GOLD expecting at least 1734. Below 1725 and 1700 will happen

A gap down opening in gold created lot of stop loss triggering..It seems going to that level you mentioned dear, if 1741 broken.
Euro/USD forming a triangle pattern in 30M chart, a break below 12898 might bring more weakness, and a move above 1.2913 can bring a 15 pips up move.

[sebas]

I would be careful looking for longs in gold..GOLD expecting at least 1734. Below 1725 and 1700 will happen

After a long time i am back in this forum.i apologies as my reply given before was not in the right format.
i guess now it seems ok.
A gap down opening in gold created lot of stop loss triggering..It seems going to that level you mentioned dear, if 1741 broken.
Euro/USD forming a triangle pattern in 30M chart, a break below 12898 might bring more weakness, and a move above 1.2913 can bring a 15 pips up move.