The Purely Technical EUR/USD Trading Thread

[CodyB]

we have 2934 is the 618 of the 3486 to 2042 and weekly PP is right at 2933 sp we are at strong confluence right here for momentum into the rest of the day above or below wait for a break

a sustained break below 2958 is still needed for me to short..

the close above does not bode well for shorts

[CodyB]

Originally Posted by CodyB View Post
Euro continues to consolidate under 1.30 after bouncing hard below it last week. Long-term the EU has been in a downtrend since the May high of 1.4939 – Its dropped a long way since then! However, after the low of 1.2042 in July the pair has begun moving back upward to the tune of 500+ pips.
From here there are two main scenarios that can be viewed as most likely:
1) There has been a recent bullish flag pattern that started in mid-September of 3171 and since dropped to current price. This flag pattern has a intraday falling resistance that is currently intersecting with 1.30 at some point tomorrow. On a break above this falling resistance I will look get long in anticipation of another stab upward toward 1.32 and 1.35, target is still 3315 on a break
2) If resistance at 1.30 holds then expect the downtrend since May to hold for another challenge of 1.20. A sustained Break of 2858 and I'll look to short for 2763 and 2593
Attachment 155066

we will see a new high before we see a new low

look at the currencies, not the FX pairs and also the $index. I am still a buyer on dips until proven otherwise....otherwise is a sustained break of 2858, a close above 2970 tomorrow would add to this for me

the gbp also..look at it

everything still running as expected, nothing new to add $index, gbp as well as EJ all moved according to charts and analysis posted

again watch the crosses for better pips

[CodyB]

Vanilla USD/JPY 79.40, EUR/USD 1.2900, 1.2925, 1.2950 strikes go off today.

[CodyB]

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,
Euro-dollar; $1.2900, $1.2925, $1.2950, $1.3040, $1.3045, $1.3050

[CodyB]

EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3150 Strong offers, stops
$1.3120 Strong offers (18 Sep high)
$1.3100 Strong offers
$1.3085 19 Sep high
$1.3075/80 Strong offers
$1.3072 5 Oct high
$1.3056/59 European high, Upper Bollinger band
$1.3051 ***Current mkt rate 1216GMT Tuesday
$1.3010/00 Medium demand
$1.2985/80 Medium demand
$1.2969 European low
$1.2950/40 Medium demand ($1.2943 - Asian low)
$1.2933/30 5 dma, Stops
$1.2920 Medium demand
$1.2906 23.6% of $1.2043-1.3172

[CodyB]

example of where the "big boys" are positioned...NOT TO BE USED FOR your own trades

CSFX trades/positions:

- EUR/GBP: Long from .8030, targeting .8250, stop at .7922.
- EUR/JPY: Long at 101.80, added at 100.30, stop now at 100.60 for 103.60.
- EUR/SEK: Long from 8.6400, added at 8.6200, target/reverse now at 8.6400, stop/reverse through 8.6200 (for 8.5100).
- EUR/NOK: Long again at 7.3660, targeting 7.4600, stop/reverse through 7.3850 (for 7.3500).
- NOK/SEK: Short from 1.1720, targeting 1.1610, stop at 1.1755.
- AUD/NZD: Long through 1.2525, targeting 1.2640, stop now at 1.2517

[Luxuriant]

Has you can see from trend lines on the SPX. It tested the bottom. Top now 1463--1465. Euro looking higher with a break of 1.30

[CodyB]

Tuesday's gain marked the 5th consecutive daily rally in EUR/USD: This sequence has extended to 6 days only twice since September 2009, the exceptions coming on Wednesday 6th April 2011 and Monday 2nd May 2011

> EUR/USD finished Tuesday 85 pips higher at 1.3035

> It was the 5th consecutive day of gains, over which EUR/USD has added a total of 1.60 cents (1.2%)

> Only once in the last 14 weeks has EUR/USD ended the week more than 65 pips below Tuesday's closing level

> Resistance is expected on Wednesday at 1.3105/20 and 1.3165: Look for support first at 1.2975/80, and then at 1.2945 and 1.2905/10

[CodyB]

Has you can see from trend lines on the SPX. It tested the bottom. Top now 1463--1465. Euro looking higher with a break of 1.30

I have had 1499 to the mid 1500's for months now, its taking its sweet time to get there

[nopainnogain]

while: first i got to check things out today,personal things had me busy. time & price seem to be working very well.Cody B really enjoy your input.you must have your mind working even when your asleep.thanks again.

[CodyB]

here is the weekly I've been working with updated
Attachment 155026

yearly PP is not out of the question here either...not gonna bring up past posts, levels are all there for those that read them, 3315 if broken will force me to redo my charts. If we use the 4590 high from 10/2011 then the 618 is right at yrly PP, hows that for confluence? Time will tell and will still look for shorts under the 2858 sustained break

[Luxuriant]

I have had 1499 to the mid 1500's for months now, its taking its sweet time to get there

I am looking at 1575, and 1.3450 Euro top in the end. Just so long as 1420 on the SPX holds.

[Cipresko]

Nice day earned +98 pips, close all long positions on eur/usd, nzd/usd an aus/usd. Pending orders for retrece and going short eur/usd at: 1.3125 and aussie at 1.032 if we get there.

[CodyB]

Nice day earned +98 pips, close all long positions on eur/usd, nzd/usd an aus/usd. Pending orders for retrece and going short eur/usd at: 1.3125 and aussie at 1.032 if we get there.

we got 1.31235 so far

[CodyB]

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.00%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.30%. Bonds lost 15 ticks, Crude added 25 cents, Gold rose $11, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises back to the 1440 and 1389 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots

Short term support is at the 1440 pivot and SP500 1422/27, with resistance at SP500 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day quite overbought. The short term charts turned positive with the swing level now SP500 1443