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05-25-2012, 01:26 PM #121
Have you seen that JoeyLee's new count on weekly/monthly? The trouble is he/she didn't really post a level for any expected low and all a bit of guess really. It's easy to say to wait for confirmation before entering. Yes, I know that from Dow theory market structure alone, and then why would I need EW. EW is so subjective and deceptive most of the time and one counts what one wants to see. And then, 'there is always an alternative count' like what Marketwavez used to say in every post: There is always a bullish count and a bearish count. Take your pick. Oh, please, then why would one need EW anyway.
Originally Posted by Clivewaverider
Enough of my rants. Got too bored. Yeah, I hate weekends too.
05-25-2012, 01:32 PM #122
I feel the same about EW too but what it does help is accept that the market can do anything as it squirms around. The bit that I am having to get used to is the wait for the turn and pick up the retracement on the way back for entry. This can be done on relatively small degree, my 10 min chart with 240min and daily 5MA's, so the 'I must catch the early bird' is perhaps marginal compared to the possible losses. I think it was Paul who said he makes more money in correctives and that is for me too as the fading the retracements and impulses works whereas not in a strong trend.
Originally Posted by Franosh
Good to chat - you in UK too?
PS Just read JoeyLee's - along with Stan and mine from last week, perhaps this is the 'almost guaranteed to happen but doesn't' option. I am in agreement with the wait for the pull back - almost same as what I said above.
Last edited by Clivewaverider; 05-25-2012 at 01:48 PM.
05-25-2012, 01:52 PM #123
Yes........... (just filling in enough number of letters to get it past the machine)
Originally Posted by Clivewaverider
05-25-2012, 04:06 PM #124
Last update for night. short term chart shows price using up bullish energy climbing that support line. 240/daily MA (5 attenuation) band clearly crossed to downside and bustling price down.
Longer term chart shows next two rungs down on ladder using Gann/Don Hall time-squaring calcs from the 1.3283 high using 5.63 degrees.
Descending triangles (240min chart) often end with a severe spike out of the bottom with sharp reversal. Catching both these right would cure a few ailments from last week!
Last edited by Clivewaverider; 05-26-2012 at 04:29 AM.
05-26-2012, 06:01 AM #125
Originally Posted by Clivewaverider
Clive did a little EW research tonight. Assuming the last chart I posted is a wave 3. That we seemed to agree on. When 5 of 3 ends in the 1.2460 - 30 area, or wherever. EW states a wave 4 correction from wave 3 should be about a 1.0 FIB relation to 4 of 3. Which means it should correct to around 1.2825 the top of 4 of 3. Before wave 5 starts the last leg down. Something to go on anyway. If that is the case I may go long myself. LOL Good luck my friend. (The correction in the middle)
Have courage to look beyond the short term.
05-26-2012, 11:26 AM #126
Yep, some point after it turns, it will go up - about as accurate as we can get sometimes, me thinks. There are plenty of targets to go at in terms of ratios, so I wouldn't limit yourself if the intraweek trend turns up, although I think the rise will be chop city. Should be able to channel trade the 2 day Hull, back and forth, back and forth which should refill my tub. I have been looking at the 2hour and 4hour bolly bands on 20/2 overlaid on my 10 min chart and I think they will act as good bounce points - so once the lower 2-4hr bolly's are about where the 2 day Hull is lying (all stacked together) price hopefully will be nearer the high of the 2-4hr bolly bands with overbought stochs and MACD's. We should be able to sell down to the Hull over and over. This should be a wave 4 in due course and likely to go sidewards.
Originally Posted by Luxuriant
I been looking at whether this turn down in the EURUSD is something more than the churn we had for a few months and I think the big money is taking this down. I have posted 4 Charts of multi MA band's - time periods on the chart legend but representing a 1 month to 2 year wave. The key here is the way in which the 1-2 year gold wave has crossed down and everyone is stacked below it real pretty. Basically, all the chop chop until now looks like everyone was getting their house in order behind the scenes - maybe Robert might like to see if he can put a fundamental bent on this, cause I can make easy work of it - EUR is going to get a tad cheaper!
The waves use 5 period attenuated moving averages that suffer very little lag - in fact a Line chart of the closing price matches a 5 attenuated MA exactly on all time frames. So these waves are like line charts of monthly price/time slices from 1 month to 2 years on a daily chart.
I have done some back issues of the 'MyWave Golden Cross' to show how far these puppies can run. Alejandro is going to have a field day with these, I hope.
Last edited by Clivewaverider; 05-26-2012 at 12:24 PM.
05-26-2012, 12:03 PM #127
This is the 2nd installment looking at the 5 year wave.
I do not think these charts needs a lot of explanation. The first shows the start of trading of the EURUSD ( on my charts anyway) and the the key pivot points from all the way back then - they might look familiar!!!!!!!!
The 2nd chart, show that this is the 3rd time of trying to break that zone and this time as we saw in the last charts, the 1-2 year golden cross/wave is ready for action. Me thinks the 1.2363 will be a temporary stopping point with a sidewards ledge being built under that area - maybe a blimming big 4th wave (not of 3, which we is in now, me thinks) triangle with a stunning 5th wave down through it. Moving along in time, bigger wave 2 may only be able to get back up to that 1.3502/1.3463 zone, in due course.
Do you know, these charts seem to be telling me that if some bazooka is not forth coming pretty darn quick, things are going to be getting out of control. Parity does not look far fetched at all.
Last edited by Clivewaverider; 05-26-2012 at 12:13 PM.
05-26-2012, 08:28 PM #128
Been countertrend trading as well and increasing leverage since the 2nd gap down to 1.29, and surviving - 3 reasons why - Money Management, Hedging, Luck!
Originally Posted by Clivewaverider
It has effectively halved my profits for the month. Countertrend trading is not so damaging in itself, it's the leverage part that is the problem - still holding a hedge short at 1.26, with breakeven now stands at around 1.27, thanks to a few successful hedging.
Simple move huh? It's a killer move!
A beautiful mind is much more important than a fat pocket.
05-27-2012, 05:34 AM #129
I got caught during the EURUSD retrace and i am still having long position open. Just wondering if there will be retrace of the pair soon? just curious to know the target price for the retrace.
And what would be the fundamental that will trigger EURUSD retrace before continuing the downtrend..
Any input would be greatly appreciated.
05-28-2012, 03:00 AM #130
Good morning everyone: could not help but notice the visitor numbers on this very new thread. Do say hello from time to time!!
5 year 'wave' is trying to 'dissolve' for the third time of asking since 2008, through its key support lines all the way back from the period 1993-1998, when they were broken to the downside and retested. The green lines mark out those key support lines.
The 2 year 'wave' has already turned and cut its trend line from July 2010 - all my price averages to two years in term are stacked neatly to the downside and therefore staring out those support levels in the 5 year weekly chart with some intent. This is very very bearish, at this juncture, as if all EURO investors have been getting their ducks in a row.
The third chart is the weekly wave and the pink line is the 2 day Hull 10 period MA. It is pink for downhill still. My guess is that in EW terms we are in the 4th wave of the 3rd down here but sidewards anyways at best. The pyrapoint ladder in gold gives 2 targets below Friday's low: 1.2432 and 1.2363. I still think somewhere between these would be a good target for a 5th of the 3rd especially as the all time high of 1.6037 provided a support line at 1.2463 - see charts from last week.
The last chart is the short term trading chart. Price is trying to move up but has to be considered counter trend given the above charts. Until the thick pink line (2 day Hull) turns gold and is tested, I am looking for higher places to sell. The 240min/daily MA band is crossed up but again, the assumption for now is that this is a retracement and their crossing down again will provide another shorting opportunity. As I stated last week, I believe we are in a complex 4th wave correction in the 3rd and this sidewards action is usual in 4th waves. It is the degree we are concerned about as a high degree 4th could go back up nearer 1.3080 and still not invalidate the impulsive count (bottom of wave 2 assumed to be at 1.3094). Prices are currently pushing the 2 hr bollingers (thin pink envelope) with the 4hr (thin blue) sitting higher at 1.2670 - a bit too rich me thinks up there near daily R3.
So shorting for me but as this is likely to be a 5th in the 3rd downhill when it comes, I would be concerned about sudden reversals so tight stops past the 'whoosh' if it happens.
Last edited by Clivewaverider; 05-28-2012 at 03:04 AM.
05-28-2012, 04:37 AM #131
Timing the shorts: went short at 1.2603 as price had poked out of the ascending triangle and then come down and exited - a more conservative entry will be to wait until the 240/daily MA band crosses over to the downside again, but with the MACD and stochmoms in the bottom chart screaming at me 'neg divergence' and given we had already been pushing the 2hr bollinger envelope, it was worth a punt higher. I am now at breakeven with the stop. My target is just above S2 at 1.2435 or anywhere in between if price action no looky good, especially as the 2hr & 4hr bolly's are sat together above S1!
It appears that wave 4 (of the 5th of the 3rd) is/was an expanding flat where the B wave was lower than the A wave bottom and the C wave was higher than the A wave top - see letters on chart. This corrective has taken some time - I do not think this is weak bears - this has been flat - weak bulls, me thinks. If the Friday low is not taken out this time, we might end up with a larger ascending triangle with the next leg up from the green trend line being the E or 5th wave up before a breakdown.
See previous posting for where we sit as far as all time support levels and weekend summary.
Last edited by Clivewaverider; 05-28-2012 at 05:33 AM.
05-28-2012, 08:39 AM #132
It feels like we have two options in play here - both of which are rolling slow......
Option 1 is the ascending triangle from Friday's posts and probably my favourite for keeping the EW wave 4 (of 5 of 3) alive and giving time for the 5th wave to be a slam dunka in due course.
Option 2 is driven by that cluster of bollinger bands (pink/2hr, blue/4hr, green/day) deviation bands sat in the 1.2500-1.2450 area which might be just enough to limp out a wave (5 of 3) but that would be tired price action at this stage.
So I prefer Option 1 on purely monetary basis and I am locked in with a again if some uptick kicks in and I need to relook.
05-28-2012, 08:57 AM #133
Clive, I must admit ignorance as I have no idea what your 5-yr wave or 2-yr wave means. I don't use Ensign and haven't got a clue what you meant by 'attenuated MA' either. These seem not to be the terms that can be seen elsewhere in other charting packages(?) Regarding your N-yr waves, what's the difference between them and a normal multipl-MA chart or something like the Guppy profile (a sample chart is attached)? If so, I don't know how one can judge turning point based on that. Most MA based strategies are about trend following and I would love to know how you think those MA crosses or not would show your if price would turn or not.
05-28-2012, 09:11 AM #134
A Guppy Wave or multiple MA is similar in intent to what my waves are, but based on the 'Attenuated' version of the Moving Average. This is an ensign quirk built around the Swiss Army Knife indicator as described by Ehler: https://docs.google.com/open?id=0By1...DA5Z0FJZjJOb2s .It was difficult enough to get any background on it out of the ensign designers, so no surprise you not heard of it - I been digging!
Originally Posted by Franosh
The Attenuated MA on a 5 period setting mimics the line chart of any time frame - so a 5MA atten on a 10 min chart is the same as having the line chart up for a 10 min chart instead of a bar chart or candlesticks, albeit on a closing price only. In essence, there is no lag, compared to the guppy version or any other exponential, weighted, v weighted, Hull etc etc. By using these MA's what I am suggesting is that it is a good proxy for multiple price charts overlaid on each other rather than lagging MAs.
So on my daily chart I have created price waves, not MA waves, of all price line charts up to 2 years and on the weekly, up to 5 years. they are telling me a story about the underlying trend, not the reversal points as you correctly suggest. I am not using these to find turning points, only that in framing my 'trading strategy' I ought to be aware that the underlying weight of the market has had enough thus far and is taking the EURO lower. If the wave starts collapsing up hill, then we can look to see if the retracement is sticking into something else or not.
I am absolutely not trading off these - it is just another something I am doing in the background. You do not have to do anything with them or get frustrated with them.
Last edited by Clivewaverider; 05-28-2012 at 09:16 AM.
05-28-2012, 09:16 AM #135
But, why using 5 attenuated to mimi a line chart? 1SMA is the perfect equivalent of line chart. Anyway, let me check that Ehlers' Swiss Knife first. I use Ehlers' stuff a lot, but not t his.