Fibonacci Trading - Page 10

tradermoe · #**136** (**permalink**) 02-27-2008, 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

This chart could be worth watching, price is so close to 2.618 at this time..

As the future for USD is looking grim we may get a surprise and see a nice move upwards....

Will be interesting to see what kind of accent Greg can put on this....

lets hope the dollar gets stronger soon..i have the 10 period rsi and it has been showing divergence on the daily chart starting in nov. also the hourly chart is showing divergence since the 26th.

looks like bernanke will lower interest rate again. if you go to pfxglobal.com they show the dollar is stronger than the frank fundamentally...that is a great site if you havent been there. have some great fundamental information.

tradermoe · #**137** (**permalink**) 02-27-2008, 01:21 PM

here is basic info concerning butterfly pattern. butterfly pattern identifies significant reversal point against main trend. the example im showing is from eur/usd 1/31/08. 4 points to a butterfly. 1. retraces against main trend., 2. tries to reach point 1 but fails to do so, 3. tries to reach point 2 but again fails to do so, 4. moves up again breaking through resistance, in this case. point 3 should be around 61.8%-78.6% and the break out from point 4 should reach 127.2% - 161.8%

im not an expert in these patterns but this is what i know.
moe

Gregory McLeod · #**138** (**permalink**) 02-27-2008, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

I added .707 to the Fib tool so we could see how prominent .707 is, probably the Gartley is clutter on the illustration. I left it there as the discussion started with that formation.

A great percentage of the bars in this chart end near the .707..

Perhaps you have another pair that we can 'operate ' on. lol

Suggestion.........?

I am adding another chart showing how price is bouncing from.707

You never cease to amaze me with your variety of charts and depth of knowledge. Thanks for these great charts as well.

Periodically, you will see price stop part way between the .618 and the .786. It is good that you have brought this to our attention with some real-time examples. We appreciate it!

I'll look back through my charts to see if I can locate more instances of this level. I have added it to my default settings.

Would the .841 level be included in these retracements? How does that number fit into the scheme of things?

Thanks,

Greg

Blaiserboy · #**139** (**permalink**) 02-27-2008, 03:13 PM

I was going to post this chart to show the three consecutive measurements of 1.128,

And I have also highlighted .841.... also consecutive....

.841 is not all that common from what I have observed..... yet on this chart we can see it three times.... ( coincidence that I had this chart as you were posting).

.707 is on many, many charts, I think that .786 may be selected as the popular measure as it allows a little more distance for the target zone.

There is an equal low on this chart.

I think my interest in Fibs was sparked by your thread... or rekindled by your thread... I had not previously seen a thread devoted to Fibs specifically and guided by someone who uses them all the time...

NB Dollar index has fallen significantly since this chart drawn

Gregory McLeod · #**140** (**permalink**) 02-27-2008, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tradermoe

here is basic info concerning butterfly pattern. butterfly pattern identifies significant reversal point against main trend. the example im showing is from eur/usd 1/31/08. 4 points to a butterfly. 1. retraces against main trend., 2. tries to reach point 1 but fails to do so, 3. tries to reach point 2 but again fails to do so, 4. moves up again breaking through resistance, in this case. point 3 should be around 61.8%-78.6% and the break out from point 4 should reach 127.2% - 161.8%

im not an expert in these patterns but this is what i know.
moe

Thanks for your post. That is a good example that you constructed with the Marketscope charts. I am sure people feel that they have to have an expensive charting program to create these sophisticated Fibonacci patterns.

The bearish Gartley butterfly is sort of deceptive in that the sell point is the high point of the pattern and in the bullish Gartley pattern, the Buy point is at the low point of the pattern.

Gregory McLeod · #**141** (**permalink**) 02-27-2008, 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

I was going to post this chart to show the three consecutive measurements of 1.128,

And I have also highlighted .841.... also consecutive....

.841 is not all that common from what I have observed..... yet on this chart we can see it three times.... ( coincidence that I had this chart as you were posting).

.707 is on many, many charts, I think that .786 may be selected as the popular measure as it allows a little more distance for the target zone.

There is an equal low on this chart.

I think my interest in Fibs was sparked by your thread... or rekindled by your thread... I had not previously seen a thread devoted to Fibs specifically and guided by someone who uses them all the time...

NB Dollar index has fallen significantly since this chart drawn

If we close here, it looks like a double bottom. Prices should retrace for a few days. Since it's composed of a basket of currencies, mostly the EURO, we might see the EURUSD take a break from its record setting pace.

Blaiserboy · #**142** (**permalink**) 02-27-2008, 04:04 PM

I took a daily chart of GBPJPY and listed each of the retracement ratios appearing on it.... to get an idea as to which ratios were prominent.

I did not combine these, just listed them as they appeared.....

Of course a few of them can be combined, I wanted to just give an idea as to the count. and point out that the ratio percentages on one instrument would not apply to another instrument. each has its own unique patterns.

Interesting that .707 is more popular than .786 as is .841

.5 1

.618 5

.66 1

.707 6

.786 2

.841 5

.90 6

.92 2

1.00 9

1.06 1

1.07 1

1.128 1

1.272 1

1.414 1

1.5 2

1.618 3

1.81 1

1.89 1

1.93 1

2.00 1

2.17 1

2.69 1

2.55 1

2.77 1

3.74 1

3.82 4

3.83 1

3.84 1

4.48 1

4.5 4

5.0 1

Gregory McLeod · #**143** (**permalink**) 02-27-2008, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

I took a daily chart of GBPJPY and listed each of the retracement ratios appearing on it.... to get an idea as to which ratios were prominent.

I did not combine these, just listed them as they appeared.....

Of course a few of them can be combined, I wanted to just give an idea as to the count. and point out that the ratio percentages on one instrument would not apply to another instrument. each has its own unique patterns.

Interesting that .707 is more popular than .786 as is .841

.5 1

.618 5

.66 1

.707 6

.786 2

.841 5

.90 6

.92 2

1.00 9

1.06 1

1.07 1

1.128 1

1.272 1

1.414 1

1.5 2

1.618 3

1.81 1

1.89 1

1.93 1

2.00 1

2.17 1

2.69 1

2.55 1

2.77 1

3.74 1

3.82 4

3.83 1

3.84 1

4.48 1

4.5 4

5.0 1

The numbers between the Fibs happen with frequency- 4.5 (between .382 an d .50), 1.00- (between 1.27 and .618)

Blaiserboy · #**144** (**permalink**) 02-27-2008, 07:13 PM

I am going to attempt to locate turns with Fibonacci ratios... This is the first one I have worked with.... of course this example is an extreme, most of the turns should be at less than 161.8, I would think.

Probably I should be working with longer charts as that is what people seem to base their decisions on....

Blaiserboy · #**145** (**permalink**) 02-27-2008, 09:51 PM

some examples of fib resistance.

I think this tells why we should all have proficiency using the fib tool.....

there are many uses..... hopefully we can touch on each and learn a lot.

Blaiserboy · #**146** (**permalink**) 02-28-2008, 01:10 PM

This AB= CD is just about perfect......

Blaiserboy · #**147** (**permalink**) 02-28-2008, 04:20 PM

on this chart 1.618 seems to have a lot of presence as far as providing resistance to the decline and also the retracements from this level are attractive.

I am adding a second chart. different time frame..... showing more of the same

Blaiserboy · #**148** (**permalink**) 02-28-2008, 11:04 PM

Again... 1.618 leads to a major move

Blaiserboy · #**149** (**permalink**) 02-29-2008, 09:04 AM

Significant level achieved 1.618....

Perhaps this is a signal for reversal

tradermoe · #**150** (**permalink**) 02-29-2008, 09:42 AM

here is a chart of the usd/jpy 1hr. you can see we are at the end of an AB=CD pattern. the daily chart has been showing divergence, on rsi period 10, that started in mid october. i think this is going to be a great time to get in and catch this reversal. also there is divergence on usd/chf on daily and hourly. just have to wait for the right time to buy. there is divergence on eur/usd 1 hr chart.
moe