Hello Ilya Spivak,
I have read a couple of your articles about candles and Fibo
analysis. They make a deep impression on me.
Today, when reading the article "Dollar Strength to Continue
Against Major Currencies", I feel a bit confused about one point, I don't
know why you choose the Fibo level of the pair EUR/USD at the 1.5903
instead of the 1.6020, the highest point the pair reached for calculation
in the Fibonacci Analysis?
I hope you would reply me as soon as you can. I appreciate it
much.
Thank you in advance, Ilya.

My analysis basically breaks the EURUSD rally into two parts, from 1.4434-1.5900 and then from 1.5345-1.6019.

EURUSD price action from 02/08 – 03/17 marks the start of the first leg of the rally. This move established 1.59 as resistance, a level that would become a triple top before the feeble run at the 1.60 level. Following this rally EURUSD sold off from 1.59 to 1.53 before resuming its rise at a different slope.

The 23.6% Fib of the first leg was also the site of the most recent pause in the EURUSD's decline after a major trend reversal. The level was validated yet again as support today.

Keep in mind, there is nothing technically wrong with including the entire rally in drawing a Fib. Technical analysis is subjective, so different people can see these charts differently but both come up with profitable trades.

Hope that answers your question.

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All that glitters is not gold in the Australian Economy. Now on its 16th year of economic expansion on the back of higher prices for commodities like copper and gold, the Australian economy is showing a few cracks.

The Economist Intelligence Unit has revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2008 to 2.9% (from 3.1% previously). The recent slew of interest rate increases are hurting business and consumer confidence.

Australia’s GDP growth slowed to 3.9% year on year in the final quarter of 2007 from 4.3% in the third quarter.

The Australian current-account deficit equalled 7% of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2007. This is a ratio that hadn't been reached since 1960.

With any break-neck run to historic lows, a pullback can be expected and capitalized on.

The 61.8% retracement of the 2.0826 low to the 2.1310 high has provided good support as seen on a 2 hour chart. A Morning Star Doji pattern sits atop this area of support and the GBP/AUD could use this to rechallenge its old highs in the 2.1300 neighborhood. Once the 2.1300 is attained, look for a rocky ride back to the 2.1500 area which was the high on 4/18.

See the attached chart:

~Greg

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Our weekly Fibonacci review suggested an entry into long AUDUSD above 0.9287 for rally to test 0.9500 again. Price action has validated this view, with AUDUSD reaching as low as 0.9291 before rallying higher (see chart).

The latest Fibonacci weekly can be found here:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...450136273.html


Ilya

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Our weekly Fibonacci review saw USDCHF aim higher to target 1.0547. Today's FOMC rate cut failed to stir the pair as it clings close to the 50% Fib resistance level at 1.0374. This suggests dollar bulls are determined to break higher, a lot of potential catalysts on the calendar in the coming days.

The latest Fibonacci weekly can be found here:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...450136273.html

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Our weekly Fibonacci review suggested USDCAD would move to trade higher from the dominant trend line to approach 1.0250. The pair is well on its way having rallied 177 pips just today.

The Fibonacci weekly is published Monday mornings on Dailyfx.com. The latest release can be found here:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...450136273.html


Ilya

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As we suggested in this week's Fibonacci review, USDJPY has continued trading along an upward-sloping trend line on approach to 105.19. Should this level be broken, the pair is clear to extend as high as the 61.8% Fib retracement at 107.42.

The Fibonacci weekly is published Monday mornings on Dailyfx.com. The latest release can be found here:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...450136273.html


Ilya

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100 0z Gold Bars daily

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GBPJPY one minute

often these patterns end and a new one starts or is already started..

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GBPJPY one minute and five minute

often a very similar pattern will appear on more than one time frame simultaneously

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EURUSD monthly

This pattern spans several years, there seems to be no end to it.....!

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GBPJPY 240 minute

Bearish AB = CD

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GBPCHF

Gregory

You will have to look back in your records and see if you called this one.

I think it is really impressive that the move bounced from the 1.618 precisely.!

That pattern took a long time to form, this is a monthly chart.... and there was a slight decline before the move south started....

Definitely these patterns need a confirming indicator... as when the pattern first appears, there is no rule that price must change direction.... but they do point out what may be about to arrive....

dave

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GBPJPY update


I posted this one yesterday and because I am quite interested in GBPJPY I am posting a follow up.

As you can see, the bearish move has commenced and price is moving south... I do not think this is the final down move, there will be, I think a retrace up and then the decline will resume.....

Perhaps someone else will calculate the target for this move.

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GBPJPY one minute

This one retraced to .382 where it met some continued selling and then went lower

and as I type this I see that it is again attempting to cross the .382.

Quite significant how the ratios point out support and resistance areas...

It did pass up thru the .382 and tested the .500, and back down.

I will attach another chart.......

and the third chart shows price bouncing back and forth between these two while the bulls and bears have a meeting and lunch.... hehehe

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