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  #316 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2008, 05:42 PM
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This is a similar example on the EUR/USD
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blaiserboy View Post
Fibonacci retraces

Often a retrace will test the zone between .618 and .786
Well said Dave. The EUR/USD is looking to move toward that .618 and .786 Fibonacci resistance zone. Extending the Fibonacci drawing tool from the bottom of the swing back towards the top reveals these "hidden" levels of resistance.

We can trade Long with a stop below the long wicks in the 1.5500 area with a target between 1.5576 (61.8% Fibo Resistance) or 1.5601 (78.6% Fibo Resistance).

Reversal candlestick patterns at either of these levels provide a shorting opportunity as the EUR/USD may fail to make a higher swing high. We could see 1.5446.

See the attached chart:
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  #317 (permalink)  
Old 05-20-2008, 02:44 PM
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EURUSD 240 minute

I have an idea that the pair may want to go a bit higher before resuming trend down..

I was looking at your chart and wondered why so high on today's price.... then added the indicator.

This may seem 'weird' , the extent of the distance of the AO from the zero line approx April 28 seems to indicate a bit of energy to the up move......LOL
(my new secret theory.........)
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  #318 (permalink)  
Old 05-20-2008, 02:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blaiserboy View Post
EURUSD 240 minute

I have an idea that the pair may want to go a bit higher before resuming trend down..

I was looking at your chart and wondered why so high on today's price.... then added the indicator.

This may seem 'weird' , the extent of the distance of the AO from the zero line approx April 28 seems to indicate a bit of energy to the up move......LOL
(my new secret theory.........)
Yes zooming out to a larger time frame shows this could go to the .786 of the larger move down before correcting around the 15850-15700 area. I took profits too soon but since price did not form any type of reversal pattern at the price target, I did not get in. The fundamental news is in favor of the Euro.
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  #319 (permalink)  
Old 05-20-2008, 03:06 PM
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EURUSD

This chart interests me...

http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...postcount=4872

He has done some work on it.... I will like to see if his theory works out to be accurate.
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Old 05-20-2008, 06:15 PM
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A different look at EURUSD
I have been experimenting a bit with Fib extensions and found an interesting setup on the EURUSD. The pair trended downward in 2005, so I setup a Fib to capture that move and drew extensions (see weekly chart 1 below) to see what can be ascertained. Two things of interest:

1 - The 161.8% and the 138.2% extensions offered good guidance for consolidation in EURUSD ahead of the break above 1.50.

2 - The 200% extension has acted as support/resistance for recent price action. We are now trading right below this level (see weekly chart 2).

Could this be the end of a EURUSD relief rally before further down momentum? We will just have to wait and find out.


Ilya
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  #321 (permalink)  
Old 05-20-2008, 06:26 PM
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Ilya

Many, many people are asking what is happening with EurUsd.... I am glad you posted your ideas in here.....

As you say, we are going to have to wait to see what the signal will be....
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  #322 (permalink)  
Old 05-27-2008, 08:15 PM
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GBPJPY weekly

I think the up move may have resumed...
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Old 05-28-2008, 03:31 PM
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EUR/USD may correct lower
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blaiserboy View Post
GBPJPY weekly

I think the up move may have resumed...
Though the German Import Price Index and German CPI printed higher at .9% and .6% respectively, the better than expected US durable good orders gave the greenback legs against the Euro.

The 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level has proven to be a formidable barrier to the 1.6000 area. EUR/USD looks to test the 1.5300 and the 1.4890 area in the coming days.

See the attached chart
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Old 05-29-2008, 05:59 PM
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Hi Greg

I am not too sure what you used to establish your target....

Would you be good enough to repost with a little more description......

Thanks
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Old 05-30-2008, 04:59 AM
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GBPJPY 240 minute

This bounce from the 2.618 could be the start of a downtrend.
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  #326 (permalink)  
Old 05-30-2008, 05:43 AM
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EURUSD 60 minute
Interesting how price met this old fib line and reversed.....

I had to make the chart a bit scrunched to keep the fib line. lol
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Old 05-30-2008, 06:29 AM
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AUDUSD weekly

Some resistance at 1.618 and also some divergence showing.....

Perhaps the bull is going to take some time off. he has had a long run.
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Old 05-30-2008, 06:43 AM
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GBPJPY 60 minute

AB = CD 50 % pattern
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Old 05-31-2008, 06:59 PM
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EURUSD daily

There seems to be support at the .618 level, divergence between price and indicator, and the long wick on the last candle lead me to think this is going to go higher
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Old 05-31-2008, 07:08 PM
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USDCHF daily

This pair tested the support at .382 and went higher..... there is divergence on this pair and now a reversal pair has formed, probably indicating another attempt to go lower
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