Fibonacci Trading - Page 23

SKS · #**331** (**permalink**) 06-09-2008, 08:55 AM

Hi Brad, What's next for this pair as today it has rocketed over 200pips? Can you pls throw some light with current activities in Euro & USD with JPY? Cheers

DailyFX Analyst · #**332** (**permalink**) 06-11-2008, 11:05 AM

Here are Jamie's latest takes on the Yen:

USDJPY

The USDJPY rally has gone through 107.20 so we need to look at other counts. One decline treats the drop from 124.13-95.72 as a W-X-Y decline (7 waves, which is corrective). However, it is not clear where this fits in the larger pattern (take a look at the monthly, and it is quite clear that the USDJPY has broken from a 4th wave bearish triangle). The other count is that the decline from 124.13 is a leading diagonal. In Elliott Wave Principle, it is stated that second waves following a leading diagonal often retrace 78.6% of the diagonal. Therefore, both counts suggest strength until 113/118 (roughly the 61.8% to 78.6%). The next short term move could be down in a b wave though (assuming that the advance from 95.72 is wave a). This sets up a near term bearish stance, then probably a flip to bullish in a few months for wave c.

EURJPY

If a triangle is unfolding, then the EURJPY must remain below 167.73 (top of wave B). A wave E decline needs to begin before 167.73. Watch the intraday charts closely for signs of a reversal. E waves are usually sharp. A rally through 167.73 would require us to reassess the count.

Ilya Spivak · #**333** (**permalink**) 06-11-2008, 05:17 PM

Our candlestick weekly has advocated a short NZDUSD for a couple of weeks now, holding from a re-test of the broken trend line below 0.7940. Yesterday the target on the trade hit at 0.75, booking 440 pips in profit.

The Fibonacci weekly is published every Tuesday on the Dailyfx.com homepage. The latest version can be found here:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...077490020.html

David Song · #**334** (**permalink**) 06-12-2008, 10:54 AM

Hi All. I am new to the forums, but I have been looking at the USD/JPY, and it looks like there may be some upside potential.

Looking at the chart, the USD/JPY has broken the 0.382 level, and seems to be making a move towards the 0.500 level. If the pair is able to climb above the 108 resistance level, I feel that 110 could be a potential target.

Dailyfxanalyst · #**335** (**permalink**) 06-12-2008, 11:32 AM

Looking at the nzdusd chart, shorting that pair was definetly a wise choice. SMA 10 days, provides a fair idea of the volatility present in the market, coupled with sma 200, confirms suspicions about the pair continuing on its bearish trend.

A retracement is possible, if so then the is expected to test the 0.382 level.

air

David Song · #**336** (**permalink**) 06-13-2008, 05:53 PM

Looking at the daily chart, the EURGBP looks like it may be turning around, and may test for support at the 0.618 level.

dody95 · #**337** (**permalink**) 06-14-2008, 09:22 AM

any opinion about Euro/USD?

David Song · #**338** (**permalink**) 06-17-2008, 03:07 PM

Hi all, I continue to hold my bullish position for the USDJPY and found some more confirmation from the weekly charts.

Looking at the chart, I have found two consecutive bullish engulfings, and I will continue to hold out on my long position to 110.

David Song · #**339** (**permalink**) 06-19-2008, 01:55 PM

Looking at the EURJPY, it seems like the pair is finding resistance at 168. I have yet to take any positions on this pair, but will be keeping a close eye for future direction. As rising oil and food costs continue to add upside inflation risks to the economy, the shift in the BoJ's rhetoric makes me doubtful that the pair will break above 168, and may see the pair find support at 162.

pip proff · #**340** (**permalink**) 06-19-2008, 02:53 PM

So I'm new to Fibonaccis, and I could use some advice from everyone here.

Below is a chart of the USDJPY, and I drew the line as best fit as I could... Look at two weeks ago, a doji took place and was just barely under the 38.2 line... I was sure after seeing that "double signal" that the price was going to go back down... let's just say good thing I placed a stop loss.

So, what did I do wrong? How should I play it from now? Thanks everyone.

Abhi · #**341** (**permalink**) 06-19-2008, 03:07 PM

Hi,
After Mervyn King's announcement yesterday, GBPUSD pair has been on a tremendous rally. I was fortunate enough to get in on the action. I pulled together a simple chart, using FIB.

As can be seen from the graph, the pair tested with the 38.2% mark, and if it clearly manages to break that level, then there is potential for more gains from a long position. I decided to use the 10 day SMA and 50 day SMA, and they support my suspicion that the pair should break the 38.2% mark.

In today's crazy trading session, i wish you all luck

David Song · #**342** (**permalink**) 06-20-2008, 03:54 PM

With the British pound making moves this week, I found some profitable opportunities with the GBPJPY.

From the chart, the pair may test for resistance at 215, but with the recent hawkish commentary from Mervyn King, I do agree that the GBP may have some upside potential.

David Song · #**343** (**permalink**) 06-23-2008, 02:59 PM

Keeping up with the GBP postings, I looked at the GBPUSD and it seems like a descending triangle formation is taking place.

It seems like the pair is finding support at the 0.382 level, and may fall through 1.93 if the current trend does hold.

David Song · #**344** (**permalink**) 06-24-2008, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_1199

I thought I would post this in the fibonnaci forum for discussion

From looking at the Monthly chart of GBPCHF we can see a huge diagonal triangle formed, (Elliott Wave Principle tells us that is a major reversal in price)... Since we know that the trend is now upward since 1995, it is our job to take long trades.. Well I have some very good news for all.. We are sitting right on a very nice entry price right now that could probably be carried for quite some time

From measuring the 5 wave advance since the diagonal triangle ended in 1995 we get our fibonacci support levels.. And if we take a good look close up, We can see that Price appears to have completed a Large Elliott Wave Pattern since 1995.. (A 5 Wave Advance Followed By A Three Wave Decline) And is sitting right on the 78.6 Fib Support level where price has formed a bullish engulfing candle on the monthly chart. I think the argument is overwhelmingly BULLISH for this pair... And sooner or later.. (For long Term Traders) We should see price back above 2.7229 as the next wave in the Elliott Wave sequence completes a Wave 3 or a Wave "C"...

I would love to hear some ideas on this... It seems air tight to me... And It's 100% Carry Trade

Brad, I see what you mean, and I feel that your long-term outlook may not be too far out in the future.

By looking at the chart, the triangle would definitely reflect a breakout in the near future, and it seems like there was also a hammer on the daily chart as well. It definitely looks like there is an upside potential for the pair by looking at the triangle formation, but I would wait for additional confirmation (such as a break out above 2.09).

Gregory McLeod · #**345** (**permalink**) 06-24-2008, 06:35 PM

With the FOMC scheduled to deliver a much anticipated interest rate announcement for the U.S. Most currency pairs are range bound until we can get past this important data point.

Looking at a 60 minute EUR/USD chart we can see that the .618 level at 1.5525 is coming into play. If this important level holds, we can see a retest of the weekly high of 1.5619 and ultimately a push north to the 1.5870 area.

See the attached chart: