Fibonacci Trading - Page 24

alfa10 · #**346** (**permalink**) 06-25-2008, 06:01 AM

Looking at the actual chart as we speak (instead I am looking at the monthly chart) the support you mention looks like a long way to be reached. I can more see the trading range to be 1.5500-1.5600 in the next 24 hours (it’s a small percentage chance that Feds will raise the rates), if that happens and I guess you know what to do. The range that you mention for my opinion its to much to be predicted by looking at 60min chart.

Chris Vecchio · #**347** (**permalink**) 06-25-2008, 11:32 AM

The GBPUSD has been sticking to its FIB boundaries today, as you can see on the 60min/Daily Chart (from 6/18 to present). We saw the pair bounce at the 61.8% level on 6/23 at 1.9593, retrace, bounce at the 50.0% level on 6/24 1.9634, retrace, then finally bounce at the 38.2% level on 6/25 at 1.9665. This is well defined uptrend. However, it you look at Jamie's Tech analysis (chart below), it looks like we're going to see the Pound fall through this current FIB resistance.

Gregory McLeod · #**348** (**permalink**) 06-25-2008, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alfa10

Looking at the actual chart as we speak (instead I am looking at the monthly chart) the support you mention looks like a long way to be reached. I can more see the trading range to be 1.5500-1.5600 in the next 24 hours (it’s a small percentage chance that Feds will raise the rates), if that happens and I guess you know what to do. The range that you mention for my opinion its to much to be predicted by looking at 60min chart.

Although, price did not get to .618 level, the EUR/USD did respect the 50% Fibonacci level and tested the level twice before taking out the weekly high of 1.5619. Spurred on by a Fed unwilling to move rates higher to fight inflation and reluctant to cut rates to stimulate a sluggish economy.
The EUR/USD hit a intraday high of 1.5679 surpassing last weeks high of 1.5650.

Though the 60 minute time frame is smaller than what most swing and position traders look at, Fibonacci levels and their price extensions are no less relevant.

alfa10 · #**349** (**permalink**) 06-26-2008, 05:03 AM

I been reading your postings and you really make good comments. I will follow up any suggestions you have. I am new in forum and I would like to learn more about Fibonacci method.

Gregory McLeod · #**350** (**permalink**) 06-26-2008, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alfa10

I been reading your postings and you really make good comments. I will follow up any suggestions you have. I am new in forum and I would like to learn more about Fibonacci method.

Thank you very much. Glad to have you with us. We have a good group of posters with a lot of knowledge to share.

Gregory McLeod · #**351** (**permalink**) 06-26-2008, 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fxaprendiz

Just an idea. I thought it would be good to post it in here, since it's about Fibonacci patterns.

The EUR may be heading south for the next couple weeks. Although price may stall and reverse before reaching 1.5285, I'm counting on EUR to follow through to the 1.5200-1.5050 area.

Today and tomorrow will decide if this is a valid reversal. Price shouldn't go beyond the Potential Reversal Zone (1.5698-1.5779). If so, most probably the bearish patterns are invalid.

Blaiserboy posts charts like these. These are great! Keep um coming our way!

Gregory McLeod · #**352** (**permalink**) 07-01-2008, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HeikinStoch

It often looks as though people search for key fibs levels to confirm what they are already looking for. It also seems to me that you can find some sort of interesting price action at any fib level just by luck. What is the actual theoretical underpinning that relates Fib levels to certain price action? I have yet to run into any theory that helps justify the Fib freaks.

I see your point. However, whether one person believes in them or not, the reality is that if enough buy and sell orders accumulate at these levels, price will usually respect laws of supply and demand no matter how they are generated. They may be self fulfilling prophecy or some universal concept. But as a trader, I don't care. I just want to buy low and sell high where pools of liquidity are located.

We welcome your ideas and opinions as they relate to Fibonacci exploration and its application. The posters of this forum seem to want to do the same.

I being one of those "freaks" and a trader of 13 years, believe that USD/JPY seems to have completed a major correction which has ended near the .618 Fibonacci support level. We could target 107.00 and 108.50 in the coming days.

See the attached chart:

Gregory McLeod · #**353** (**permalink**) 07-01-2008, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fxaprendiz

This tiny bearish butterfly formed in the EUR/USD 5min chart a few hours ago.
While by itself it might not have much strength, it may be the last push EUR needs to reverse and go down for the next couple days.
The current upward trend is still very strong, as seen by the sideways move after the last uptick, but the fact that it formed precisely within the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) and it appeared at the final point of the bigger butterfly and Gartley, adds weight to its potential to be a reversal maker.

I like this chart as it shows how Gartleys could be used on smaller time frames. The risk to reward is smaller and there is more risk, but if a repeatable methodology can be used apply this technique, then you really have something here. Drawing these on 4 hour time frames and looking for entries allows you to be able to walk away from the computer. Thanks again for a great chart. Keep it up.

Gregory McLeod · #**354** (**permalink**) 07-01-2008, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fxaprendiz

This tiny bearish butterfly formed in the EUR/USD 5min chart a few hours ago.
While by itself it might not have much strength, it may be the last push EUR needs to reverse and go down for the next couple days.
The current upward trend is still very strong, as seen by the sideways move after the last uptick, but the fact that it formed precisely within the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) and it appeared at the final point of the bigger butterfly and Gartley, adds weight to its potential to be a reversal maker.

What software program are you using to draw your measurement lines?

Gregory McLeod · #**355** (**permalink**) 07-02-2008, 10:18 AM

You are right. When too many people believe the same thing, the markets have the tendency to do the opposite. Non-believers help drive the market. Too many believers cause the latest belief to breakdown. You see this with certain moving average combinations, chart patterns, or systems; they breakdown over time because everyone on the other side of the trade adjusts.

On another note there was Fibonacci resistance at the .786 resistance level of the swing from 107.19-104.94 so we have a Gartley pattern that could take us down to 104.39

Gregory McLeod · #**356** (**permalink**) 07-02-2008, 10:55 AM

Below, I have attached a diagram of an idealized Gartley Bullish and Bearish pattern. It takes a while to see them. You can use the MACD to cue you when one is forming. If MACD has made a lower low and price has made a higher low, you probably have stumbled onto a bearish Gartley. A quick glance makes it appear as divergence, but it is not. Price moves up, breaks above the "B" point high then turns around at the 78.6. I want to give a special thanks to Blaiserboy for introducing advanced Fibonacci strategy to this forum and fxaprendiz for keeping it going.

Gregory McLeod · #**357** (**permalink**) 07-03-2008, 12:50 PM

The move from the May 9th Low 78.49 to the May 30th high of 82.72 is the initial swing that we draw our Fibs. We have a double bottom at the .618 Fibonacci support at 80.11. This is the most relevant and current swing. There is a larger down move that we have to consider as well which created "hidden" levels of resistance that may limit the upside of this bounce at support. These are highlighted in red. These were created from the down move from 88.13 on Feb 26 down to March 17th low of 76.71. Most notable is the 61.8% reistance at 83.76 and the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level of 85.69. These two should cap gains. This is a difficult currency pair to draw fibs because of the choppy price action.

See the attached chart:

Gregory McLeod · #**358** (**permalink**) 07-04-2008, 02:24 AM

I agree that though fundamentally the US economy is weak and a weak dollar and a strong Euro should be "logical". However, the markets are dominated by human beings who, by nature, are illogical so a "buy the rumor sell the fact" mind set is in effect. The EUR/USD did rally over 600 pips since June 13th and profit taking on the ECB rate decision should have been expected. MACD divergence on the 4 hour and daily charts is clearly evident.

Your analysis of a pullback to a Fib level is sound. Like the Heiken Ashi/Stochastic flavor!

Gregory McLeod · #**359** (**permalink**) 07-07-2008, 01:12 AM

Great monthly charts! Many times traders overlok this valuable time frame. Thanks for bringing this up to our attention. This could be the beginning of a new wave carry trade opportunities.

alfa10 · #**360** (**permalink**) 07-07-2008, 06:21 AM

FXaprendiz hi there! I agree with you that this forum is a learning room. I dont know much about fibonacci method. I would like to learn more and thank you for the nice posting.