Fibonacci Trading - Page 26

justy10125 · #**376** (**permalink**) 07-23-2008, 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

The USD/JPY looks like a bull flag. Price bouncing from a 38.2% Fibonacci level is bullish.

The Stochastic is confirming this possibility.
See the attached diagram:

Hey Guys,

USD/CHF is in a bull flag as well. The chart below is a weekly chart showing the flag. Last week price attempted, and failed, to move lower and the result of that left us with a hammer candlestick right at flag support. That hammer also bounced off of the 61.8% fib. I think we'll see higher prices over the next few weeks or so.

What do you guys think?

SKS · #**377** (**permalink**) 07-24-2008, 08:14 AM

Hi Brad, I can understand your situation to reply to my requests and I am really sorry to bother you so much. I would like to clariy that I make my own decision and fully responsible for trading but I really your prompt, honest and impartial opinions/feedback which helps me to make right decisions and ultimately winning trades. I am pleased to inform you that I did went long in USD/CAD last night and this morning booked resonable profit. As usual your opinion about the general trend helped to do make right decision at right time, buy bottom and sell top. I need your guidance and expertise advise as its very important and valuable not only to me but the whole DailyFX Forum. Cheers

SKS · #**378** (**permalink**) 07-25-2008, 02:53 AM

Hi Brad,

Yes its absolutely clear to me that I am responsible for my trading and looking forward to your opinion/reviews/threads etc. to maximise my returns. I am pleased to inform you that I am now out of EUR/JPY which I was holding short from last Friday and I even made decent profit in this pair. Can you please have a look in view of the latest developments particularly downward pressure on EURO? Cheers

Blaiserboy · #**379** (**permalink**) 07-25-2008, 09:10 AM

Because we have achieved a lower low and then a lower high, I am assuming we are into a downtrend, although we are going to have a retrace higher soon.. then lower again beyond the resistance at 61.8.

That is my 2 cents.....

Comments.............................

Ilya Spivak · #**380** (**permalink**) 07-28-2008, 05:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

Because we have achieved a lower low and then a lower high, I am assuming we are into a downtrend, although we are going to have a retrace higher soon.. then lower again beyond the resistance at 61.8.

That is my 2 cents.....

Comments.............................

Sounds about right to me. EURUSD has already started to pull up higher towards support-turned-resistance at the 38.2% fib (1.5758). Price action before the most recent selloff definitely looks like a Rising wedge (complete with oscillator divergence for confirmation). This is a significant bearish reversal pattern so I think the current downside breakout is real and will have some legs.

Ilya

Ilya Spivak · #**381** (**permalink**) 07-29-2008, 05:17 AM

From the latest Fibonacci Weekly report:

"Two weeks ago, we suggested NZDUSD was within close proximity of the upper boundary of a downward sloping channel that has guided price action since mid-March. We opted to short the pair below 0.7704, eyeing a return to 0.7446.

NZDUSD behaved as forecast, selling off to breach support at 0.7624, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 03/14-06/13 decline. Last week, we opted continue to hold the trade, retaining the target at 0.7446. NZDUSD did not disappoint once again, hitting the target to yield 258 pips.

Looking ahead, we see the pair testing major support at 0.7431, the 50% retracement of the 08/17/07-02/27 rally. A close below this level opens the door for further selloff to the 61.8% Fib at 0.7245."

The complete Fibonacci report can be found here:
Dollar to Extend Gains Against The Majors

Ilya

Ilya Spivak · #**382** (**permalink**) 07-31-2008, 04:06 AM

Yesterday saw AUDCAD break below a trend line that has supported price action since late December of last year. The decline found an interim bottom at 0.9631, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracemenf of the 05/14-06/09 rally.

Fresh fundamental data reveals the Australian economy in a dire state. Consumer demand fell sharply in June, with Retail Sales printing at a six-year low of -1.0%. If the recent collapse in crude prices continues, this may give RBA Governor Glenn Stevens room for a rate cut to support the economy at the next policy meeting in September. With the BOC still firmly on hold, this would begin to tilt interest rate expectations in favor of the Canadian dollar, supporting a trend change.

Look to short on a pull-up to 0.9708, the 23.6% Fib level, with the initial target at the 61.8% Fib just above 0.95.

SKS · #**383** (**permalink**) 07-31-2008, 06:44 AM

Hi Ilya, Brad and Itlam,

You all are experts and your opinions are very valuable in these forums. Can you pls suggest a good book to learn from bascis of Fibonacci Nos to help us better understand this remarkable theory behind nos which can make such accurate prediction in price, time and directions etc. Thanks to you all for your time and efforts to educate us. Regards

Ilya Spivak · #**384** (**permalink**) 08-01-2008, 02:57 AM

Current AUDUSD positioning is within a hair of major support at 0.9338, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 08/17/07-07/15/08 rally. Price action has been held above this level since mid-April. Fundamentals are supportive of a bearish bias. Today saw TD Securities Inflation ease for the first time in almost a year, printing at 4.6% in the year to July versus 4.8% in June. The release suggests that record-high interest rates are having the desired disinflationary effect, meaning RBA policymakers could have room for a rate cut sooner rather than later. A major selloff may be imminent should the greenback derive enough strength from tomorrow's NFP release to break and close past Fib support.

Strategy: Short AUDUSD on a daily close below 0.9338. Set stop-loss at 0.9497. Target the 38.2% Fib at 0.9018.

Ilya

Ilya Spivak · #**385** (**permalink**) 08-01-2008, 03:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SKS

Hi Ilya, Brad and Itlam,

You all are experts and your opinions are very valuable in these forums. Can you pls suggest a good book to learn from bascis of Fibonacci Nos to help us better understand this remarkable theory behind nos which can make such accurate prediction in price, time and directions etc. Thanks to you all for your time and efforts to educate us. Regards

Unfortunately I can't be of assistance on this one. I was taught Fibonacci analysis first-hand by other, more experienced traders.

Ilya

SKS · #**386** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 04:58 AM

Hi Brad,

I am with you and as usual will go with your recommendation. So I am going long on this pair right now. Thanks

SKS · #**387** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 06:58 AM

Hi Brad, Yes now I have full patience and wait for the desired results. I am now long at 1.6125 so what is our 1st target and I will put the limit order to book profit? I would have actually made very good profit I was holding the same position which you had advised few weeks ago for this pair. You were and are very right for this trade. CAD is ready for a sharp downturn NOW. Thanks for your help and guidance once again.

SKS · #**388** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 07:40 AM

Hi Brad, Justy may be also joing us for this joyful ride in EUR/CAD so I am adding some more more position to my existing long positions. Great spotting today and I have put a limit order to book profi at 1.6599 just below the next support line. I am still awaiting for my books and CDs from Steve Nison. Cheers

cmellon · #**389** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 08:00 AM

Hey guys.. what's up... what's cooking here...
SKS posted somewhere there is this super great trade EUR/CAD.

Ahh.. master Brad is the one who recommends it...
I'll start joining when it passes the peak of wave 1 at 1.6972... wanna make sure Brad's count is right first

P.S. Ehhh dude... italm just posted another count in EW forum EUR/CAD... very bearish

end of wave 5... let's see who's right.

SKS · #**390** (**permalink**) 08-05-2008, 08:28 AM

Hi C Mellon,

This is what these forums are for that we can share and discuss different opinions very openly. I do respect Italm as his opinions are great but in this case we are with Mater Brad as the same view is shared by Ilya on continuing weakness in CAD. There are no indication for recovery in CAD in short term.

I am very happy with my position and entry level. This is the 1st trade in last 3 months wherein I am looking to hold it for few days otherwise I just trade max 24 hours. Cheers