Fibonacci Trading - Page 31

taka666 · #**451** (**permalink**) 09-19-2008, 05:44 AM

which retracement level is strong? 38.2%, 50% or 61.8%?? or in other words my question is which level will price fall to eventually or rise up to eventually?

brad_1199 · #**452** (**permalink**) 09-20-2008, 05:48 AM

Here's a few longer term charts of USDCHF to keep our heads focused on the bigger picture... This week closed leaving a huge bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart at a prior multi-year support area that has obviously now become major resistance on the upside.. This weeks price action has now given us confirmation that the bear trend has returned and reversed this pair back downward. Price remains in a downward Multi Year Diagonal Triangle with much further downside left to play out over the coming years on the monthly chart as well...

Over the next 6 - 12 months or so I expect price to come back to the prior fib support zone around the 100.00 Handle...

We have about a thousand Pip target on the downside from current price

I'm long term bearish against 1.1417 Although I don't think the market will get back above 1.1279

It's uncanny how the market reversed right where it did... Just goes to show us that the market does have memory

bertmaple · #**453** (**permalink**) 09-21-2008, 04:33 PM

an entire fibonacci thread??!! Im thrilled. Fibo is a key part of my trading system- will post some charts once my 1 wk chrts stop being wacko.

Gregory McLeod · #**454** (**permalink**) 09-24-2008, 12:36 PM

Good to have you with us. We have a good group and we are open for another Fib lover!

taka666 · #**455** (**permalink**) 09-26-2008, 11:14 AM

i longed GBP/USD at 18622 2 days ago and now it's at -225 pips.. can anyone tell me if it will go up according to Fib?

brad_1199 · #**456** (**permalink**) 09-27-2008, 09:14 AM

I've had my eyes on the GBPAUD for a bit now. A week ago price created a massive shooting star candle on the weekly chart and clearly rejected the upside.. I think that that candle represents a major top, but I also think price is going to rise back up to test the top area of the candle one more time before it heads lower... The size of that wick also tells me the longer term down trend is still in place as well... The 50.0% fib level at 2.2964 is major fib resistance over head and I think price will create a major reversal off that area the next time it gets up there..

brad_1199 · #**457** (**permalink**) 09-27-2008, 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SKS

Hi Brad,

I respect your opinion and just now additing limit order to SELL at 108.89 with no SL as in last 3 months I didn't had even 1 lossing trade. In last two weeks alone I managed to recover the Full Year loss in 2007-08.

I appreciate your help and its much appreciated. Now only good profits I have also learned a lot from your opinions which are without technical jargons. Easy to interpret and follow.

Today I am heavily short in Gold, next week will be able to book profit and by that time USD/JPY will be ready to Short. Cheers

Hmmmm.. didn't get our entry into the short position in USDJPY this week passed

I've been tempted to short the pair but I'm waiting to see what the market response is going to be to this Bailout plan in the U.S. Better to be safe than sorry, especially over the past few weekends there have been huge price gaps on the weekend.

Gregory McLeod · #**458** (**permalink**) 09-27-2008, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by taka666

which retracement level is strong? 38.2%, 50% or 61.8%?? or in other words my question is which level will price fall to eventually or rise up to eventually?

Price may test the 38% support level of the 1.86831.7418-1.8200 swing low to swing high before moving higher. Daily Stochastics are overbought and lower prices are in store before we move higher. See the attached chart:

Gregory McLeod · #**459** (**permalink**) 09-29-2008, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Esemayon

I most commend your effort in taking us through such lesson on the above subject. I have been using Fibonacci with RSI for entry and exit and it has been helping a lot.

Meanwhile I still find it more complex to understand your way of applying fibonacci theory.

In all I respect your kind of application.

Thanks.
Esemayon.

Different roads up the same mountain. You are welcome.

Blaiserboy · #**460** (**permalink**) 10-01-2008, 03:03 AM

nice patytern at 3 am when Europen open

Gregory McLeod · #**461** (**permalink**) 10-01-2008, 11:20 AM

GBPY/JPY met with strong resistance at the 38% Fib level and pushed down nicely. The butterfly gave us an entry in the direction of the daily down trend.

If GBP/JPY breaks through the 184.18 low, look for a move equal to or greater than the August to September down move to follow.

Blaiserboy · #**462** (**permalink**) 10-01-2008, 11:22 AM

Interesting how price respects those lines.....!!

brad_1199 · #**463** (**permalink**) 10-01-2008, 08:32 PM

USDJPY is in a down trend but I think it's going to be a slow grind getting lower... Price is in a good spot for short entry now around 106.00 .. I think risk can be kept to 107.35 -- (10 Pips above last weeks high)

We can see that price continually bounces off a former congestion area between 104.81 and 102.56, but the bounces are far from an upward reversal. There is downside momentum building on the weekly chart and it will drop lower sooner or later.... There is a longer term fib level sitting at 106.50 that has been working well rejecting price every time it bounces up.. Good spot to get short just below 106.50. With risk kept to 107.35 there's only about 100 pips or less of risk here...

brad_1199 · #**464** (**permalink**) 10-02-2008, 12:17 AM

EURJPY has fallen hard over the last two months showing us that there is most likely a new hardcore Bear Trend underway, especially since there is not much overlap in the two candles representing the past two months. So the good news is, we can see the momentum and direction. Ok now time to trade it, but not so fast .. We must also control our risk!! Especially in such volatile market conditions!! One thing I can say about long term fibonacci levels is they act like magnets so we should see price get sticky around the levels..(meaning we should see price test the level more than once)-- We can see price got slammed right through the first support level on the monthly chart and closed there(showing us large bearish potential)... But before it continues lower I expect price to come back up under the fib level we just penetrated and kiss it goodbye before heading for the next major fib support level at 138.98

In summary I am expecting price to bounce upward to the fib level at the 150.82 handle for bears to enter short with a target near the next fib level down at 1.3898 probably within one months time..

I have a pending short order placed in my orders to execute a short position at 150.75 with a stop at 152.20 and a target at 140.00

Risk 145 PIPS ////// Reward 1075 PIPS Very Nice

The other option is that price may just blow right by the fib level as it has closed pretty far below it, so Just incase I'm wrong and price doesn't retrace to 150.82, I also have a pending short order sitting at 146.95 with a a target at 140.00 .. Entry is just below the low price of last months price action. If price makes a new low without retracing to the last fib level I say it's highly probable that price will continue to fall. And there is deffinately a lot of momentum pushing down

Blaiserboy · #**465** (**permalink**) 10-02-2008, 04:14 AM

This could be significant resistance area