Fibonacci Trading - Page 43 - DailyFX Forex Forum

centrum · #**631** (**permalink**) 02-23-2009, 09:53 PM

Here we have a snapshot of two flags that just formed. The first flag broke out nicely. The second flag broke but will fail. Why? Because it has a flat bottom. Will my prediction be correct? Will the dollar finally break .95 and move up against the yen? Nope. It just broke .95. I was wrong.

Blaiserboy · #**632** (**permalink**) 02-23-2009, 09:53 PM

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/newre...ote=1&p=245589

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Blaiserboy · #**633** (**permalink**) 02-24-2009, 01:41 PM

USDJPY 240 minute

The price has reached significant levels here. I am sure there will be some resistance to moving higher.....

centrum · #**634** (**permalink**) 02-24-2009, 03:36 PM

Booked a 16 dollar profit and closed my position on USD/JPY this afternoon.
The EUR/USD had some interesting formation through the US trading today.
Now how will the Asian market react?

There is some pressure to move higher. A small almost flag has formed, and the indication is a move up to retest the 1.30 mark. With a nice rally in the US stock market today will we see some small risk taking and confirmation of a change in the medium trend for the Euro to continue its move toward 1.33?

Blaiserboy · #**635** (**permalink**) 02-24-2009, 04:17 PM

I am glad you got the profit, perhaps there will be another opportunity with a retrace

Joel Kruger · #**636** (**permalink**) 02-26-2009, 11:13 AM

Hi all.....heads up on 50% fib.....check out research at:

Greenback Broadly Bid Following Slew of Weak US Data Releases (Selling Usd/Jpy at 98.90)

all my best,

Joel

pdean123 · #**637** (**permalink**) 02-27-2009, 10:21 AM

One Hour
Fib off the 61.8
There is a possible Range Shift occurring on the RSI. Price convincingly broke the 40 range level at 3:00am EST and then hit a lower level at 9am EST. Price tried to test the 40 at 10am but failed and is currently before the close pointing down.
Moving Averages are down (9SMA & 45 EMA) on price and RSI
The last Negative Reversal that began on 2/25/09 and 2/26/09 with a target of 1.2672 has been hit. Momentum appears to still be to the downside.

Daily
RSI Range has been between 50 and slightly less than 30 from early January.
Moving Averages are sideways on the RSI and down on price.
Reversals - A 17 period Negative Reversal completed on 2/24 with a target of 1.2335.
Paul
A Story of Forex.. | You Learn Forex

Blaiserboy · #**638** (**permalink**) 02-27-2009, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_1199

USDJPY has been quite the headache to figure out as of late... I didn't get the big rally I was looking for today to exhaust the move upward, instead it looks like the market may have reversed.. Although I'm not exactly sure if this is the top I'm looking for, today's candle is not what I would call a solid reversal day.. We may see a little consolodation around current levels and perhaps a push towards the phsycological 100.00 Handle yet before a major top is in.. I can't help but think a re-test of 100.00 is imminent since price has rallied up so close to it already and those round numbers tend to act like magnets drawing price to them. I guess we'll see what happens next week...

Brad

How would you label the last two bars.......... do you think that is a reversal pair, or engulfing...... what label do you think to be appropriate here.....?

Thanks

brad_1199 · #**639** (**permalink**) 02-27-2009, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

Brad

How would you label the last two bars.......... do you think that is a reversal pair, or engulfing...... what label do you think to be appropriate here.....?

Thanks

I can't really put a good label on that at the moment... If it's a top it needs more confirmation, I can tell you that much.. But keep in mind the phsycology surrounding even numers such as 100.00 .. In my opinion price can easily run up to 100.00 for a reversal back down... I wouldnt hop on board here just yet if you're not in this pair at the moment.. Just give it a little more patience.. Better to be safe then sorry.. I almost lost a few pips trying to call the top prematurely.. The long term elliott wave structure remains bearish so there is a top in there somewhere.. Best to wait for candlestick confirmation of the top though..

Blaiserboy · #**640** (**permalink**) 02-27-2009, 05:19 PM

Thanks for your opinion.....

I am a Friday chicken, I am usually out by noon on a Friday and also a Sunday night chicken......... lol

Thanks again

Gregory McLeod · #**641** (**permalink**) 03-02-2009, 07:59 AM

This pair has come to life and broken its daily downtrend line. The daily 200 MA has served as good support as EUR/CAD has been basing sideways. Look for prices to move toward the 1.6338 Fibonacci Resistance level created by the 1.7514 to 1.5611 swing. The next target would be at the 50% level (1.6562). Stops could be placed just south of the 200 MA in the 1.5849 neighborhood.

pdean123 · #**642** (**permalink**) 03-02-2009, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

This pair has come to life and broken its daily downtrend line. The daily 200 MA has served as good support as EUR/CAD has been basing sideways. Look for prices to move toward the 1.6338 Fibonacci Resistance level created by the 1.7514 to 1.5611 swing. The next target would be at the 50% level (1.6562). Stops could be placed just south of the 200 MA in the 1.5849 neighborhood.

Gregory,
Be careful. This is becoming very overbought. When it reverses (probably around 1.63 to 1.64) it has a daily Target 1 of 1.5189. The breakout to the upside should be 1.6581.
Paul

csbueno · #**643** (**permalink**) 03-02-2009, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdean123

Gregory,
Be careful. This is becoming very overbought. When it reverses (probably around 1.63 to 1.64) it has a daily Target 1 of 1.5189. The breakout to the upside should be 1.6581.
Paul

The 1.6330 level its going to be a little harder to break, but when it does, aim for 1.6550

Gregory McLeod · #**644** (**permalink**) 03-03-2009, 05:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdean123

Gregory,
Be careful. This is becoming very overbought. When it reverses (probably around 1.63 to 1.64) it has a daily Target 1 of 1.5189. The breakout to the upside should be 1.6581.
Paul

Thanks for the warning, Paul. I am pretty confident that EUR/CAD will reach my targets, unless it doesn't. Only time will tell whether my stop gets used or not.

Gregory McLeod · #**645** (**permalink**) 03-03-2009, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

This pair has come to life and broken its daily downtrend line. The daily 200 MA has served as good support as EUR/CAD has been basing sideways. Look for prices to move toward the 1.6338 Fibonacci Resistance level created by the 1.7514 to 1.5611 swing. The next target would be at the 50% level (1.6562). Stops could be placed just south of the 200 MA in the 1.5849 neighborhood.

EUR/CAD hit an intraday high of 1.6366 which was enough to ring the cash register on my first profit objective. Stops can be brought to break even on the second half of the trade to target second objective.