Fibonacci Trading - Page 5

Gregory McLeod · #61 (**permalink**) 02-05-2008, 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

the system that I use is based on oscillators, mainly stochastics... it seems to support your approach.

I have not been in the habit of making an entry on a daily chart, my trades are usually cleaned off before I close my charts.... however, I get to pay spread a lot more than you do...lol

I have marked up this chart a bit.. and I am posting it so that others may see confluence with your approach.....

To me.... there is a trade entry just about available and it could be a nice ride down .

From what I see there is a bit of resistance at 1.478 and once that is breached the time to enter is at hand....

Though the EURUSD is in a strong uptrend on the Daily chart, MACD divergence and stochastics divergence indicated the trend was due for a pull back. Your analysis was sharp. Thanks for sharing.

Gregory McLeod · #62 (**permalink**) 02-05-2008, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_1199

Looks like EURJPY is interacting well with some fibonacci extension levels

Thought I would make another contribution to the Fibo Forum...

Thanks for your post. Taking a look at longer time frames like the weekly and monthly can reveal significant Fibonacci support which we can make note of during our medium term trading. If we were in a short position in the EUR/JPY, we could tighten our stops or reduce position size as we got near those levels you indicated.

Gregory McLeod · #63 (**permalink**) 02-05-2008, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Thanks for your post. Taking a look at longer time frames like the weekly and monthly can reveal significant Fibonacci support which we can make note of during our medium term trading. If we were in a short position in the EUR/JPY, we could tighten our stops or reduce position size as we got near those levels you indicated.

Double top at 78.6% Fibonacci Level of the 1.4982 (high)-1.4312 (low) swing warned of lower prices to follow.
Prices dropped to 50% Fibonacci and halted for now.

The ISM (Institute for Supply Management's nonmanufacturing index) dropped to 41.9 in January compared to December's reading of 54.4. Economists were expecting a reading of 53.The number was the weakest since October 2001;

If the ISM number is less than 50, industry is expected to contract. The service sector makes up about 90% of the U.S. economy.

US Treasuries (bonds) rallied as investors bought these instruments to lock in yield.

Blaiserboy · #64 (**permalink**) 02-05-2008, 03:15 PM

Gregory

Your post yesterday resulted in me entering a short overnight...... first time I have ever done that....

and a nice taste for me this morning when I opened my chart...

That divergence I displayed on that chart. in that circumstance is very important in the system I use.... it is one of four essentials for an entry....

My take profit was a bit less than the drop, I guess I can be pleased as I was out before the retrace.....

It was your chart and explanation that made me look into a trade there....

I thank you.! and I look forward to learning much from your knowledge of Fibonacci.

Gregory McLeod · #65 (**permalink**) 02-05-2008, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

Gregory

Your post yesterday resulted in me entering a short overnight...... first time I have ever done that....

and a nice taste for me this morning when I opened my chart...

That divergence I displayed on that chart. in that circumstance is very important in the system I use.... it is one of four essentials for an entry....

My take profit was a bit less than the drop, I guess I can be pleased as I was out before the retrace.....

It was your chart and explanation that made me look into a trade there....

I thank you.! and I look forward to learning much from your knowledge of Fibonacci.

You are very welcome! I am glad that is was helpful. Thanks for being part of this community.

tradermoe · #66 (**permalink**) 02-06-2008, 07:31 AM

Looks like the 38.2 has been a good support and also looks like we are forming an ascending triangle and possible triple tops. If you look on monthly chart there have been some good reversal candles (shooting star and 2 hanging men) and RSI is around 80. Also my RSI has crossed below the 50 line. I think price may drop to 1.4450 area for now. We will have to wait and see what it does from there, but I do think that EUR/USD will make its way down at least temporarily according to the monthly chart.

Gregory McLeod · #67 (**permalink**) 02-06-2008, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tradermoe

Looks like the 38.2 has been a good support and also looks like we are forming an ascending triangle and possible triple tops. If you look on monthly chart there have been some good reversal candles (shooting star and 2 hanging men) and RSI is around 80. Also my RSI has crossed below the 50 line. I think price may drop to 1.4450 area for now. We will have to wait and see what it does from there, but I do think that EUR/USD will make its way down at least temporarily according to the monthly chart.

Looking at the EUR/USD 4 hour chart, we can see the recent price decline stopped at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.4366 low to 1.4942 high swing.

With the ECB rate decision looming ahead on February 7th, we could continue to move sideways until the announcement.

Thanks for your post Tradermoe and bringing this to our attention!

DannyB · #68 (**permalink**) 02-07-2008, 07:56 PM

looking at the daily there are some nice large fib retracement levels below - a big 38% retracement at 1.4354 and then there is the 200 day EMA lurking down at about 1.4328 - I'm expecting to see support in this zone...

Blaiserboy · #69 (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 09:41 AM

Looks to me as if there may be a small move up and that the bias is generally down to the 2007 low.

And then a long slide further.....

Of course, this being a monthly chart the moves will be slow to develop on daily.

Have a great week, everyone....!

Gregory McLeod · #70 (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DannyB

looking at the daily there are some nice large fib retracement levels below - a big 38% retracement at 1.4354 and then there is the 200 day EMA lurking down at about 1.4328 - I'm expecting to see support in this zone...

I agree. The trend is up and the Fibonacci levels look like possible areas to re-enter the market. Thanks for your post.

Gregory McLeod · #71 (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

Looks to me as if there may be a small move up and that the bias is generally down to the 2007 low.

And then a long slide further.....

Of course, this being a monthly chart the moves will be slow to develop on daily.

Have a great week, everyone....!

That is a very good look at the GBP/USD. Looking at longer time frames is like looking at satellite photography. We get a bigger perspective of what is actually happening and we can then plan our shorter term strategy with additional information.

Thanks for your observations.

Gregory McLeod · #72 (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

That is a very good look at the GBP/USD. Looking at longer time frames is like looking at satellite photography. We get a bigger perspective of what is actually happening and we can then plan our shorter term strategy with additional information.

Thanks for your observations.

The EUR/JPY looks to be setting up for a run back at he 159.48 level. We penetrated and bounced at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A kind of "hammer" punctuates the rejection of the bearish decline. Whether people believe that Fibonacci are "self-fulfilling prophesy" or "the natural order of the universe" one has to believe that these levels are more than coincidence or random walk.

Blaiserboy · #73 (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 07:29 PM

My feeling is that the levels are valid, however, we can not always correctly apply the tools. as there are so many cycles in effect all the time...... and leads us to feel that there could be inaccuracy.... hence the validity of using longer TF. to measure the more powerful long cycle...

I am attaching a monthly chart....... of course there will be a lot of fluctuations on the lower time frames. some good cycles....... however. if we make a lower high, there will be a nice long ride down.

Gregory McLeod · #74 (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

My feeling is that the levels are valid, however, we can not always correctly apply the tools. as there are so many cycles in effect all the time...... and leads us to feel that there could be inaccuracy.... hence the validity of using longer TF. to measure the more powerful long cycle...

I am attaching a monthly chart....... of course there will be a lot of fluctuations on the lower time frames. some good cycles....... however. if we make a lower high, there will be a nice long ride down.

That is definitely a notable chart. If we don't hold the low, we can go much further. Global equities markets may be due for some type of large correction if this happens. There is a strong positive correlation between world equity markets and movements in the EUR/JPY.

Blaiserboy · #75 (**permalink**) 02-10-2008, 08:08 PM

Attached chart is the highest time frame I use for regular trading, I have on it Harmonic levels
which also give some idea as to support and resistance.

I have drawn a magenta line from January 23 high which may be resistance to an up move (approx 155.79)

I also placed a Fib line on the recent decline.... I feel there is going to be resistance to the up move in that area.....

We will see how the drama unfolds.....!