Fibonacci Trading - Page 65 - DailyFX Forex Forum

cmellon · #**961** (**permalink**) 10-23-2009, 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Brad, here's something to consider in the near term. See what you think.

Yup, I have a bullish bias with this pair now. With U.K. 3rd Q GDP much worse than expected and possibility of further QE on Nov 5th, a new high above 9416 is possible.

I like Jamie's count on this pair (chart attached)

brad_1199 · #**962** (**permalink**) 10-24-2009, 05:29 PM

I hear a lot of talk around the net about a bottom in the USD soon... WeLL I'm deffinately going against the crowd here... The long term chart of USDCHF indicates further losses to be had in my opinion... Check iT out --->

Sean Hyman · #**963** (**permalink**) 10-26-2009, 09:19 AM

USD/JPY is rallying. Keep in mind that so far it's a "bear market rally" since the daily chart's trend is downward.

So if you're long...keep those stops in place in case the daily trend's downtrend still holds.

brad_1199 · #**964** (**permalink**) 10-27-2009, 03:52 AM

Edging closer into the end of the month I'm stiLL watching for the close price on this months candle in EUR/GBP looking for some bearish confirmation at the close... Should be a big time short opportunity brewing here... I'LL keep updating this one...

Here's the daily chart -->

Sean Hyman · #**965** (**permalink**) 10-27-2009, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_1199

Edging closer into the end of the month I'm stiLL watching for the close price on this months candle in EUR/GBP looking for some bearish confirmation at the close... Should be a big time short opportunity brewing here... I'LL keep updating this one...

Here's the daily chart -->

Brad,

Fibs holding up well on USD/CAD right now.

brad_1199 · #**966** (**permalink**) 10-28-2009, 01:57 AM

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As a general rule traders try to be longest the strongest trend in forex, using price pullbacks for entry points, which is a good strategy especially in forex since we see trends that last for extended periods of time... Have a look at a strong up trend on the daily chart of NZDJPY right now as price is pulling back from recent highs and now finds support at the moving average which will force price back higher again... This is an optimum spot for bulls to try long positions in the direction of trend and have a high degree of confidence that the trade will work out in their favour....

Sean Hyman · #**967** (**permalink**) 10-28-2009, 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_1199

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As a general rule traders try to be longest the strongest trend in forex, using price pullbacks for entry points, which is a good strategy especially in forex since we see trends that last for extended periods of time... Have a look at a strong up trend on the daily chart of NZDJPY right now as price is pulling back from recent highs and now finds support at the moving average which will force price back higher again... This is an optimum spot for bulls to try long positions in the direction of trend and have a high degree of confidence that the trade will work out in their favour....

Brad, see if these fib levels hold.

brad_1199 · #**968** (**permalink**) 10-28-2009, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Brad, see if these fib levels hold.

Intra-Day Fibonacci Support is at 1.4620 and the candles on the daily chart indicate further down side to be had... EURUSD should touch 1.4620 tomorrow looking for some support... There's a quick easy 100 Pips to be had in this pair on the down side tomorrow

brad_1199 · #**969** (**permalink**) 10-28-2009, 10:07 PM

I'm doing a lot of debating on where price action is headed in EURUSD and I wanted to share a chart of EURUSD on the monthly scale showing the range that took place in this area last time price was trying to push up hard through long term fibonacci resistance at 1.4575 ... The market left a clear range for us to see which is between 1.4310 and 1.4966 ... We need to watch out for some whipsaw moves in this area .... I believe the broader trend in EURUSD is still bullish until we find a top verified by candlestick confirmation on the monthly chart.. I am looking for that possible top up towards the upper bollinger band, and there is significant room for price to rise much further into that area yet in coming months.. In the shorter to medium term we could see some whipsaw price action inside the range... If price dips down towards 1.4310 in november i view this as a possible buying opportunity with a little confirmation of support near that price on the shorter time frames...

Here's the Monthly Chart ---

And The Daily Chart with some medium term speculation ---

Sean Hyman · #**970** (**permalink**) 10-29-2009, 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_1199

I'm doing a lot of debating on where price action is headed in EURUSD and I wanted to share a chart of EURUSD on the monthly scale showing the range that took place in this area last time price was trying to push up hard through long term fibonacci resistance at 1.4575 ... The market left a clear range for us to see which is between 1.4310 and 1.4966 ... We need to watch out for some whipsaw moves in this area .... I believe the broader trend in EURUSD is still bullish until we find a top verified by candlestick confirmation on the monthly chart.. I am looking for that possible top up towards the upper bollinger band, and there is significant room for price to rise much further into that area yet in coming months.. In the shorter to medium term we could see some whipsaw price action inside the range... If price dips down towards 1.4310 in november i view this as a possible buying opportunity with a little confirmation of support near that price on the shorter time frames...

Here's the Monthly Chart ---

And The Daily Chart with some medium term speculation ---

It's interesting how you watch monthy candles the way you do. Very interesting.

Good work!

Missing · #**971** (**permalink**) 10-29-2009, 12:02 PM

Brad (or any interested parties for that matter!), any theories on how to enter at Fibonacci levels as regards placement of a stop loss?.

I spent the last few evenings going back over the Daily EUR/USD chart since the start of 2006 comparing bounces at 38/50/62 levels and price targets, looking for climbs of at least 10 daily chart candles for the most part. Obviously there were some set-ups that required around 3 months from bottom to top (in an uptrend) to place entries at the fibonacci pullback levels, sometimes resulting in a bounce past the 38 level, but not reaching the 50 level, but with the price going perhaps 200+ pips past the 38 level ( a stop i am uncomfortable with).

There is nearly always some sort of bounce at the 38 level when looking at daily chart so it is always tempting to enter here, but it difficult to decide whether to place a stop at, lets say, a fixed number of perhaps 50 pips knowing if i get stopped i can adapt a similar strategy at 50/62 levels or even re-enter at the 38 level, or whether to place a stop beneath the 62 level so as not to liquidate any losses until that point (clearly resulting in a much greater potential loss, but much less likely to be hit-i wont go into the money management side of this now).

Overall it is staggering to see how these levels tend to prove so valid. Going back over the 4 years (a short time-frame i know) i think they are more valid then trendlines, 200 MA's, daily MACD etc. Obviously the more confirming signals the better for an entry.
all the best,
Missing.

Sean Hyman · #**972** (**permalink**) 10-29-2009, 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Missing

Brad (or any interested parties for that matter!), any theories on how to enter at Fibonacci levels as regards placement of a stop loss?.

I spent the last few evenings going back over the Daily EUR/USD chart since the start of 2006 comparing bounces at 38/50/62 levels and price targets, looking for climbs of at least 10 daily chart candles for the most part. Obviously there were some set-ups that required around 3 months from bottom to top (in an uptrend) to place entries at the fibonacci pullback levels, sometimes resulting in a bounce past the 38 level, but not reaching the 50 level, but with the price going perhaps 200+ pips past the 38 level ( a stop i am uncomfortable with).

There is nearly always some sort of bounce at the 38 level when looking at daily chart so it is always tempting to enter here, but it difficult to decide whether to place a stop at, lets say, a fixed number of perhaps 50 pips knowing if i get stopped i can adapt a similar strategy at 50/62 levels or even re-enter at the 38 level, or whether to place a stop beneath the 62 level so as not to liquidate any losses until that point (clearly resulting in a much greater potential loss, but much less likely to be hit-i wont go into the money management side of this now).

Overall it is staggering to see how these levels tend to prove so valid. Going back over the 4 years (a short time-frame i know) i think they are more valid then trendlines, 200 MA's, daily MACD etc. Obviously the more confirming signals the better for an entry.
all the best,
Missing.

Missing, there a couple of major fib levels that the EUR/USD just bounced off of. It broke tne downward correction as well.

It's much more important how many lots you're trading than even your stop distance. Because the biggest determiner of your losses will be the "multiplier" effect of the number of lots.

That's why, when in doubt...it's usually best to widen stops and lessen lots.

Sean Hyman · #**973** (**permalink**) 10-29-2009, 02:00 PM

Just a "heads up". I'll be out on vacation from Nov. 2nd to 9th. So I hope you guys will step up to the plate during this time and keep this awesome thing going.

I will have several instructors popping in and out throughout each day and they will be making a few posts here and there. However, their primary job is still to "man the courses".

One other note....for those new to the forums...if you'd like to see how to register and post to the forum...check this shor video out: DailyFX Forum Registration Video: YouTube - DailyFX Forum Registration Video

I'll be back on the forums on Nov. 10th.

aerocom · #**974** (**permalink**) 10-29-2009, 02:36 PM

Sean;

What happened to the EWI forum? I don't see it in the list.

Good Luck.

Sean Hyman · #**975** (**permalink**) 10-29-2009, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aerocom

Sean;

What happened to the EWI forum? I don't see it in the list.

Good Luck.

There were some bugs with some threads that had to be stopped. It's tech stuff that's over my head...but here was one of the notes from it:

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