Fibonacci Trading - Page 7

Gregory McLeod · #91 (**permalink**) 02-12-2008, 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

Ensign has a number of tools..... I have to learn their application...... and reading the instructions does not always give the user expertise..LOL

Esignal is where I saw the time application. They have whole weekend long workshops devoted to learning how to use it. Doesn't fit my time parameters at the moment.

Blaiserboy · #92 (**permalink**) 02-12-2008, 06:16 PM

I will check into Esignal, thanks for mentioning that..... lots to learn....!!!!!

Gregory McLeod · #93 (**permalink**) 02-12-2008, 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tradermoe

on eur/jpy daily i see a symmetrical triangle within a symmetrical triangle. Price is also near the 61.8% fibonacci line and the smaller symmetrical triangle.

added hourly chart to show smaller symmetrical triangle better.

i believe price will go down until it reaches 154.50-154.70 area. rsi on daily is below 50 and on hourly is just bouncing off of 70.
moe

Thanks for your great post. Seems like you and Blaiserboy agree on the down fall of the EURJPY. I am a little more optimistic. We will see how it all settles.

tradermoe · #94 (**permalink**) 02-13-2008, 06:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

I have seen charting packages that break time into Fibonacci levels in order to forecast when a significant price move will happen.

here is fibonacci time levels from metatrader. as you can see instead of having percentages they have the numbers
moe

tradermoe · #95 (**permalink**) 02-13-2008, 06:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

The EUR/JPY looks to be setting up for a run back at he 159.48 level. We penetrated and bounced at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A kind of "hammer" punctuates the rejection of the bearish decline. Whether people believe that Fibonacci are "self-fulfilling prophesy" or "the natural order of the universe" one has to believe that these levels are more than coincidence or random walk.

partial rise showing on eur/jpy. i think it might break upward soon, just has to break through that 157.00 resistance zone first.

moe

tradermoe · #96 (**permalink**) 02-13-2008, 07:29 AM

here is a daily chart and hourly chart of gbp/usd. it is in a symmetrical triangle on daily chart and if it breaks upward can turn into a double bottom but if it breaks down then continuation pattern.

if you look on hourly chart you will see we are near resistance of triangle and horizontal line. rsi is showing divergence, so at least for now i believe it will move downward to 1.9525 at least.
moe

Gregory McLeod · #97 (**permalink**) 02-17-2008, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tradermoe

partial rise showing on eur/jpy. i think it might break upward soon, just has to break through that 157.00 resistance zone first.

moe

If it can clear that area 160 looks attainable. With the Presidents day holiday, we could get some big swings.

Gregory McLeod · #98 (**permalink**) 02-17-2008, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tradermoe

here is a daily chart and hourly chart of gbp/usd. it is in a symmetrical triangle on daily chart and if it breaks upward can turn into a double bottom but if it breaks down then continuation pattern.

if you look on hourly chart you will see we are near resistance of triangle and horizontal line. rsi is showing divergence, so at least for now i believe it will move downward to 1.9525 at least.
moe

The Daily trend is down so a further decline would be in order.

Gregory McLeod · #99 (**permalink**) 02-17-2008, 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tradermoe

here is fibonacci time levels from metatrader. as you can see instead of having percentages they have the numbers
moe

Thanks for posting this example of Fibonacci time. You can see major turning points near those vertical lines.

tradermoe · #**100** (**permalink**) 02-18-2008, 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

The Daily trend is down so a further decline would be in order.

You said the Daily trend is down so we would want to sell. I drew fibonnacci retracements on the daily chart and it seems to show a struggle around the 38.2% level, which would seem to say it is a retracement and not a down trend. It also looks like it may be starting to move sideways until it can figure out what to do. It would seem to me that you are talking short term and if so, wouldn't it make it just a retracement?

Gregory McLeod · #**101** (**permalink**) 02-18-2008, 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tradermoe

here is fibonacci time levels from metatrader. as you can see instead of having percentages they have the numbers
moe

Quote:

Originally Posted by tradermoe

You said the Daily trend is down so we would want to sell. I drew fibonnacci retracements on the daily chart and it seems to show a struggle around the 38.2% level, which would seem to say it is a retracement and not a down trend. It also looks like it may be starting to move sideways until it can figure out what to do. It would seem to me that you are talking short term and if so, wouldn't it make it just a retracement?

When Price makes higher swing highs and higher swing lows, we are in an uptrend.

A change of trend happens when we make lower swing lows and lower swing highs as indicated by the circled area.

Your fibs would be drawn from the swing high of 2.1128 down to low in the 1.9383 area.

Until we see closes above the 1.9930 area with higher swing highs and higher swing lows, we would look to trading the short side of cable.

See the attached chart:

tradermoe · #**102** (**permalink**) 02-19-2008, 12:30 PM

i think it might be time to go short on the eur/jpy again. on the daily chart it has failed to break through the 50% retracement and we have a horizontal trendline a bit above the 50% line and a down trendline. plus price just hit the 50ma in the same area and the rsi doesnt seem like it will be able to break its 60 line, which when you look in the past on the chart the 60 has acted as a good support/resistance line. we will have to see how the rest of the day goes but if the present candle closes as a long legged doji, i think we can expect a drop to the 78.6% retracement area minimum, so around 155.00.

Gregory McLeod · #**103** (**permalink**) 02-19-2008, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tradermoe

i think it might be time to go short on the eur/jpy again. on the daily chart it has failed to break through the 50% retracement and we have a horizontal trendline a bit above the 50% line and a down trendline. plus price just hit the 50ma in the same area and the rsi doesnt seem like it will be able to break its 60 line, which when you look in the past on the chart the 60 has acted as a good support/resistance line. we will have to see how the rest of the day goes but if the present candle closes as a long legged doji, i think we can expect a drop to the 78.6% retracement area minimum, so around 155.00.

Given the high positive correlation of the EUR/JPY with the stock market and the stock market rallying, EUR/JPY looks poised to move higher.

EUR/JPY bounced from the 154.91 congestion area and 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 152.07 Low/159.52 High swing. It has formed a classic 1-2-3 or a-b-c pattern where a beak above point to opens up 162-164.00.

Missing the entry at 156.00-67 area, a second chance entry remains at a close above the 159.52 resistance (January 30th high).

If EUR/JPY fails to get above 159.52, then I would tend to agree with you that we could see the 152.00 handle taken out.

Only time will tell.

See the attached chart:

tradermoe · #**104** (**permalink**) 02-19-2008, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Given the high positive correlation of the EUR/JPY with the stock market and the stock market rallying, EUR/JPY looks poised to move higher.

EUR/JPY bounced from the 154.91 congestion area and 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 152.07 Low/159.52 High swing. It has formed a classic 1-2-3 or a-b-c pattern where a beak above point to opens up 162-164.00.

Missing the entry at 156.00-67 area, a second chance entry remains at a close above the 159.52 resistance (January 30th high).

If EUR/JPY fails to get above 159.52, then I would tend to agree with you that we could see the 152.00 handle taken out.

Only time will tell.

See the attached chart:

ok thanks for your input. but wouldnt you say there is a good possibility to move down because it does seem like we are at a pretty strong resistance level. if you look at the horizontal trendline on my chart it seems to have fought off any attempts to break it. also another trendline can be drawn from the 166 area down to the present 159 area. we are also near the 61.8% level also. plus the candle stick patterns. and i noticed on your chart the slow stochastic is moving into overbought and it looks like the macd histogram is starting to level out while the macd lines are still below 0. so when you put everything together it just seems like the odds of the trend moving down are much stronger than it breaking upwards. thanks again for your help it has been very helpful to me.
moe

tradermoe · #**105** (**permalink**) 02-19-2008, 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Given the high positive correlation of the EUR/JPY with the stock market and the stock market rallying, EUR/JPY looks poised to move higher.

EUR/JPY bounced from the 154.91 congestion area and 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 152.07 Low/159.52 High swing. It has formed a classic 1-2-3 or a-b-c pattern where a beak above point to opens up 162-164.00.

Missing the entry at 156.00-67 area, a second chance entry remains at a close above the 159.52 resistance (January 30th high).

If EUR/JPY fails to get above 159.52, then I would tend to agree with you that we could see the 152.00 handle taken out.

Only time will tell.

See the attached chart:

ok thanks for your input. but wouldnt you say there is a good possibility to move down because it does seem like we are at a pretty strong resistance level. if you look at the horizontal trendline on my chart it seems to have fought off any attempts to break it. also another trendline can be drawn from the 166 area down to the present 159 area. we are also near the 61.8% level also. plus the candle stick patterns. and i noticed on your chart the slow stochastic is moving into overbought and it looks like the macd histogram is starting to level out while the macd lines are still below 0. so when you put everything together it just seems like the odds of the trend moving down are much stronger than it breaking upwards. thanks again for your help it has been very helpful to me.
moe