Fibonacci Trading - Page 8

Gregory McLeod · #**106** (**permalink**) 02-19-2008, 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tradermoe

ok thanks for your input. but wouldnt you say there is a good possibility to move down because it does seem like we are at a pretty strong resistance level. if you look at the horizontal trendline on my chart it seems to have fought off any attempts to break it. also another trendline can be drawn from the 166 area down to the present 159 area. we are also near the 61.8% level also. plus the candle stick patterns. and i noticed on your chart the slow stochastic is moving into overbought and it looks like the macd histogram is starting to level out while the macd lines are still below 0. so when you put everything together it just seems like the odds of the trend moving down are much stronger than it breaking upwards. thanks again for your help it has been very helpful to me.
moe

You are welcome. You have some strong arguements in favor of a down move.

The interest rate difference between the Eurozone and Japan is 350 basis points. The rollover for being Long EUR/JPY is $3.69 on a mini lot which is tempting.

With risk aversion abating thanks to Bernanke and company, 10-year Treasury Yields rising, and equity markets rallying we will know very soon which way EUR/JPY wants to go. I think the fundamentals will allow EUR/JPY climb this "wall of worry" that is in the markets.

Blaiserboy · #**107** (**permalink**) 02-19-2008, 06:47 PM

I am attaching a couple charts.....

On the first one is Macd divergence...... Price has made a lower high which may well indicate that a decline has begun..

It may take until June or even August for the trend to be determined.

This is not a clear cut scenario.. for sure unclear......

These are not really Fib charts, they just add an additional perspective to further muddy the waters...

Gregory McLeod · #**108** (**permalink**) 02-19-2008, 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

I am attaching a couple charts.....

On the first one is Macd divergence...... Price has made a lower high which may well indicate that a decline has begun..

It may take until June or even August for the trend to be determined.

This is not a clear cut scenario.. for sure unclear......

These are not really Fib charts, they just add an additional perspective to further muddy the waters...

Here is a Daily 10 year chart of the EUR/JPY. Starting from the October 2000 low of 89.28 to 169.41 reveals completely different Fibonacci levels.

The higher high of the MACD line is bullish. But again, time will reveal which way this pair ends up.

Thanks for the posts of your charts. They are always a treat!

Greg

Gregory McLeod · #**109** (**permalink**) 02-20-2008, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Here is a Daily 10 year chart of the EUR/JPY. Starting from the October 2000 low of 89.28 to 169.41 reveals completely different Fibonacci levels.

The higher high of the MACD line is bullish. But again, time will reveal which way this pair ends up.

Thanks for the posts of your charts. They are always a treat!

Greg

Looks like the USD/CAD is setting up for a fall. Price has been turned back from the 61.8% retracement of the swing from 1.0386 High to the 0.9871 Low.

Only a close above the 1.0276 Level (the 78.6% retracement) would open up 1.04 and above. This could also lead to a full blown trend reversal.

Learn more about using Fibonacci by enrolling now in the Intensive 8-Day Powercourse
http://www.fxcm.com/fxcourse-portal.jsp

Gregory McLeod · #**110** (**permalink**) 02-25-2008, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Looks like the USD/CAD is setting up for a fall. Price has been turned back from the 61.8% retracement of the swing from 1.0386 High to the 0.9871 Low.

Only a close above the 1.0276 Level (the 78.6% retracement) would open up 1.04 and above. This could also lead to a full blown trend reversal.

Learn more about using Fibonacci by enrolling now in the Intensive 8-Day Powercourse
http://www.fxcm.com/fxcourse-portal.jsp

Looks like we have some follow through. A close below the trend line would be added confirmation.

Blaiserboy · #**111** (**permalink**) 02-25-2008, 04:08 PM

Nice work on that chart...... I have been watching it all day also.....

Gregory McLeod · #**112** (**permalink**) 02-25-2008, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

Nice work on that chart...... I have been watching it all day also.....

Thank you! Seems that dollar weakness is the theme of the week. CAD/JPY looks to be breaking out as well.

Blaiserboy · #**113** (**permalink**) 02-25-2008, 11:08 PM

Bearish pattern using Fibonacci ratios

Gregory McLeod · #**114** (**permalink**) 02-26-2008, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

Bearish pattern using Fibonacci ratios

As I remember, that is a Gartley pattern. It is a powerful application of Fibonacci ratios.

Thank you for posting a great chart!

Price D is the point to sell (bearish Gartley pattern) as the price is about to decrease.

See the attached chart

Here is a pretty good site that has more information on them: http://www.harmonictrader.com/chart_examples.htm

Blaiserboy · #**115** (**permalink**) 02-26-2008, 04:18 PM

I was lucky enough to get a copy of Pesavento's book a long time ago and have been observing these for quite a while...

He uses a number of rations for his work, my observations indicate that there are several other harmonics that are quite common. such as .841...

I usually draw about 50 charts with these ratios daily.... just for the purpose of learning how they occur...

Gregory McLeod · #**116** (**permalink**) 02-26-2008, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

I was lucky enough to get a copy of Pesavento's book a long time ago and have been observing these for quite a while...

He uses a number of rations for his work, my observations indicate that there are several other harmonics that are quite common. such as .841...

I usually draw about 50 charts with these ratios daily.... just for the purpose of learning how they occur...

I have Larry Pesavento's book Astrocycles. He talks about the .707 and the 88.9% Fibonacci levels as well.

Blaiserboy · #**117** (**permalink**) 02-26-2008, 04:32 PM

.707 is very common...

Gregory McLeod · #**118** (**permalink**) 02-26-2008, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

.707 is very common...

Please post a chart with a .707. I've posted a 88.9% example.

Here is a Daily chart of the GBP/USD. Price had a deep retrace exceeding the 78.6% retrace to the 88.9% level. This level was tested multiple times before Price moved higher.

Usually, early beginnings of a trend reversal have deep pull backs that can go as low as 100% of the initial wave 1 move.

We have a powerful close above a 10 day high breaking a multi-month down trend.

See the attached chart:

Blaiserboy · #**119** (**permalink**) 02-26-2008, 06:34 PM

this one has a couple .707 ratios....

Gregory McLeod · #**120** (**permalink**) 02-26-2008, 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blaiserboy

this one has a couple .707 ratios....

Thanks for posting this chart.

So this would be a bullish Gartley. According to the strategy, would we look to go long at the current level?