As price now trades under 1.3250 the short term trend has turned bearish and short EUR/USD positions are preferred.
In the very short term price is fairly oversold and the downside is fairly limited as we are trading just above S1 and 1.3135 low which is support. A correction to the 1.3250 area which is where we will find today's pivot point level and the 1.3250 low is right now looking as the best alternative to go short as this will minimize our stop loss and increase our potential reward when going short.
Thus the trend is bearish and it’s expected that traders will go short in the 1.3250-1.3330 area with a stop loss just above 1.3330 looking for a drop to 1.3135.
Feel free to join me today at 10:30 GMT (11:30 UK time) for a free FX, stock and commodity market webinar at www.dailyfx.com/bvb Send an e-mail to azambrano@fxcm.com to sign up to my distribution list.
EUR/USD 1 hour chart
Click here to view a recording which introduces you to my trading system
*Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join today.
Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join.
There is no doubt that the EUR/USD is oversold in the short term and not only is price oversold in the short term price is also not far from 1.30 which is long term support.
Given this the downside is farily limted yet the short trend trend is not bullish - to turn bullish price needs to trade above the 1.3165 high, if this happens we can expect price to reach 1.3250 level - until this happens price will probabily drift to the 1.3035 area.
Feel free to join me today at 10:30 GMT (11:30 UK time) for a free FX, stock and commodity market webinar at www.dailyfx.com/bvb Send an e-mail to azambrano@fxcm.com to sign up to my distribution list.
EUR/USD 1 hour chart
Click here to view a recording which introduces you to my trading system
*Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join today.
EUR/USD London session review and outlook April 18 - 2012
Review of markets covered in today's edition of Bulls vs. Bears: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, FTSE100, S&P500, Gold, Brent Crude and WTI.
Regards
Alejandro Zambrano
Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London) azambrano@fxcm.com
Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join.
Last edited by Alejandro Zambrano; 04-18-2012 at 12:46 PM.
EUR/USD is trapped in its familiar range and I do not expect any major move today.
As we are trading not far from 1.30 which is long term support there is some value trying to go long in the height of 1.3050 aiming to exit longs close to 1.3150 or 1.32 in case of a breakout above 1.3150.
A break under 1.30 would put sellers in control as we breach the long term support level and we would need to expect a further decline to the 1.28 area over the coming sessions.
Feel free to join me today at 10:30 GMT (11:30 UK time) for a free FX, stock and commodity market webinar at www.dailyfx.com/bvb Send an e-mail to azambrano@fxcm.com to sign up to my distribution list.
EUR/USD 1 hour chart
Click here to view a recording which introduces you to my trading system
*Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join today.
Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join.
EUR/USD is remains trapped in its familiar range and the failure to take out the 1.3160 high this morning makes it rather easy for bearish traders to take price to 1.3050 which is the lower end of the current range.
A breakout above 1.3160 will probably take price to 1.32 which is today's R2 level - but one should be careful if trading this move as range traders will try to force price back to its range.
Catalysts to trigger a major EUR/USD today are US Initial Jobless Claims and US Trade balance which are being published at 12:30 GMT.
Feel free to join me today at 10:30 GMT (11:30 UK time) for a free FX, stock and commodity market webinar at www.dailyfx.com/bvb Send an e-mail to azambrano@fxcm.com to sign up to my distribution list.
EUR/USD 1 hour chart
Click here to view a recording which introduces you to my trading system
*Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join today.
Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join.
EUR/USD is correcting parts of its yesterday's gains and could fairly easy drop to 1.3125 as the EUR/USD lacks an overall trend. From the 1.3125 area we expect traders to consider long EUR/USD positions as long as we trade above 1.3090. How far this bullish move will reach is very hard to estimate but probably not higher than last night’s high.
It would also not surprise me if price starts to range after we finish this correction as we are in the middle of a bigger range of 1.30-1.34; long term traders therefore don’t have a bullish or bearish bias. Trading another currency pair with a strong trend is therefore preferred.
Feel free to join me today at 10:30 GMT (11:30 UK time) for a free FX, stock and commodity market webinar at www.dailyfx.com/bvb Send an e-mail to azambrano@fxcm.com to sign up to my distribution list.
EUR/USD 1 hour chart
Click here to view a recording which introduces you to my trading system
*Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join today.
London session review and outlook April 16 - 2012
Review of markets covered in today's edition of Bulls vs. Bears: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, FTSE100, S&P500, Gold, Brent Crude and WTI.
Regards
Alejandro Zambrano
Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London) azambrano@fxcm.com
Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join.
Last edited by Alejandro Zambrano; 04-16-2012 at 03:47 PM.
EUR/USD is trading lower and lower and is now testing the 1.2975-1.30 area which is long term support. We are also trading close to S2 which tells us that price is fairly oversold over a 24 hour window. I therefore expect price to retrace to the 1.3075-1.3100 area before traders will consider going short if not short already. The 1.3075-1.3100 area is a 38.2% correction of the latest decline and where we find the next level of horizontal resistance.
Only if we trade under 1.2975 will I rule out this correction - because a breakout below 1.2975 would constitute a bearish breakout which would open for a further drop to 1.2930 and 1.2875 over the coming sessions.
Feel free to join me today at 10:30 GMT (11:30 UK time) for a free FX, stock and commodity market webinar at www.dailyfx.com/bvb Send an e-mail to azambrano@fxcm.com to sign up to my distribution list.
EUR/USD 60 min chart
Click here to view a recording which introduces you to my trading system
*Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join today.
EUR/USD found support in 1.31 this morning and as long as we trade above this level price might extend higher to test the 1.32 high. A failure to take out 1.32 will most likely lead a decline to 1.3050 - is my main scenario.
The possibility exist that we breakout above the 1.32 high and if this happens price will most likely trade to 1.3250.
A breakdown under the 1.31 low created this morning will also take us to 1.3050 and possibly down to 1.30.
German ZEW Survey will be published today at 09:00 GMT - a higher outcome than 19 will most likely increase lead to more Euro buying, a lower outcome that 19 will most lead to a selloff in the Euro.
Feel free to join me today at 10:30 GMT (11:30 UK time) for a free FX, stock and commodity market webinar at www.dailyfx.com/bvb Send an e-mail to azambrano@fxcm.com to sign up to my distribution list.
EUR/USD 60 min chart
Click here to view a recording which introduces you to my trading system
*Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join today.
London session review and outlook April 17 - 2012
Review of markets covered in today's edition of Bulls vs. Bears: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, FTSE100, S&P500, Gold, Brent Crude and WTI.
Regards
Alejandro Zambrano
Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London) azambrano@fxcm.com
Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join.
Yesterday we expected a drop to 1.3050 as long as we traded under the 1.32 high. After trading to 1.3175 price reversed and has traded as low as 1.3100. Price is expected to continue to trade lower today as long as the 1.3175 high is being respected. We are getting support to this case by the S&P500 which is trading at 1394 which is last Friday's high (resistance) and is need of a correction. A move lower by the S&P500 usually causes the EUR/USD to trade lower.
A breakout above yesterday's high is bullish and the EUR/USD is expected to reach 1.3215 in this case.
Feel free to join me today at 10:30 GMT (11:30 UK time) for a free FX, stock and commodity market webinar at www.dailyfx.com/bvb Send an e-mail to azambrano@fxcm.com to sign up to my distribution list.
EUR/USD 60 min chart
Click here to view a recording which introduces you to my trading system
*Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join today.
EUR/USD London session review and outlook April 18 - 2012
Review of markets covered in today's edition of Bulls vs. Bears: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, FTSE100, S&P500, Gold, Brent Crude and WTI.
Regards
Alejandro Zambrano
Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London) azambrano@fxcm.com
Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join.
Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
English
Español
Français
中文
Deutsch
Italiano
العربية
Sverige
Ελληνικά
