I attended a DailyFX+ webinar, I intend to do it again next Thursday.

Yet I don't think I understand how one applies SSI to (FSS) systems analysis and selection. Would you mind to elaborate a little?

SSI is effective when traders are betting against the direction of the daily trend. Essentially, when traders are trying to pick tops and bottoms. Throughout the summer and into September, SSI was showing a growing extreme amount of retail traders trying to pick tops and bottoms.

Using this knowledge, if you can find a strategy that seems to stick with the direction of the daily trend and not join into picking tops and bottoms, then it may be a strategy to watch when the SSI reaches extreme measures.

So far, the Hidalgo group is the only one I have noticed that seemed to follow the trend fairly consistently.

__________________
Enroll in our online FX Power Course today and get personalized instruction from our team of expert traders 24 hours a day. We have taught over 25,000 students and in just eight lessons, we will teach you the fundamentals of Forex trading. Click here to get more information

*Past performance posted by Signal and Systems Providers (“Providers”), is not necessarily indicative of future results. No representation is made that any account is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particularly trading program. The composite monthly results are primarily hypothetical results of the master demo and its representation of the Providers, though performance results displayed may represent a combination of live and hypothetical results and are not exclusive to either. There are numerous other factors related to markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. In the event that specific trades were simultaneously executed in hypothetical and live, real-time trading, the lesser of the two results will be displayed. There is no guarantee that one applying these methodologies would have the same results as the hypothetically posted. Since trading successfully depends on many elements including but not limited to a trading methodology and a trader's own psychology, the web site does not make any representation whatsoever that the above mentioned trading systems might be or are suitable or that they would be profitable for you. Please realize the risk with any investment and consult investment professionals before proceeding. The trading systems herein described have been developed for sophisticated traders who fully understand the nature and the scope of the risks that are associated with trading. Should you decide to trade any or all of these systems' signals, it is your decision.

Links to third-party sites are provided for your convenience and for informational purposes only. Forex Capital Markets LLC bears no responsibility for the accuracy, content, or any other matter related to the external site or for that of subsequent links, and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from the use of this or any other content. Such sites are not within our control and may not follow the same privacy, security, or accessibility standards as ours. Please read the linked websites' terms and conditions.

Typically I like to give a thorough review to those signal providers that have been around at least 12 months. Starting today, I'm going to look at those systems that are approaching their 12 month anniversary. This will provide a heads up as to what is coming down the pipe for future consideration.

The list begins with AVATAR. I like that they use only 1 max position. This means you can use them in a small or large account as you have complete control over the leverage. So if you have a large balance and want to trade 100k positions, you can do so with AVATAR where as if you are trading a signal provider with 10 max positions, you may want to trade only a 10k position. So the power of account leverage is firmly in the hands of a user with max position of 1.

Although they boast a start date of Oct 2008, their first trade wasn't placed until March of 2009. So they are right on the cusp of 7 months old. A bit newer than what the filter was to produce.

So far, I like what they have done. Their drawdowns have been fairly tight over the past year. Individually, these signal providers may not be all exciting. However, when you couple them together trading a 10k signal, they work well together by improving the RAR on the portfolio.

I like the flexibility you get with a low number of max positions. For example, if you trade a $3,000 account (like simulated below), the drawdowns have been 300-600 using a 10k signal.

If you wish to trade a $10,000 account, you could trade them on a larger signal like a 30k trade size. That type of flexibility gives more power to the FSS client.

I am curious to see how they look at the beginning of 2010 and if anything materially changes with them.

Attached Thumbnails

 

 

 

__________________
Enroll in our online FX Power Course today and get personalized instruction from our team of expert traders 24 hours a day. We have taught over 25,000 students and in just eight lessons, we will teach you the fundamentals of Forex trading. Click here to get more information

*Past performance posted by Signal and Systems Providers (“Providers”), is not necessarily indicative of future results. No representation is made that any account is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particularly trading program. The composite monthly results are primarily hypothetical results of the master demo and its representation of the Providers, though performance results displayed may represent a combination of live and hypothetical results and are not exclusive to either. There are numerous other factors related to markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. In the event that specific trades were simultaneously executed in hypothetical and live, real-time trading, the lesser of the two results will be displayed. There is no guarantee that one applying these methodologies would have the same results as the hypothetically posted. Since trading successfully depends on many elements including but not limited to a trading methodology and a trader's own psychology, the web site does not make any representation whatsoever that the above mentioned trading systems might be or are suitable or that they would be profitable for you. Please realize the risk with any investment and consult investment professionals before proceeding. The trading systems herein described have been developed for sophisticated traders who fully understand the nature and the scope of the risks that are associated with trading. Should you decide to trade any or all of these systems' signals, it is your decision.

Links to third-party sites are provided for your convenience and for informational purposes only. Forex Capital Markets LLC bears no responsibility for the accuracy, content, or any other matter related to the external site or for that of subsequent links, and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from the use of this or any other content. Such sites are not within our control and may not follow the same privacy, security, or accessibility standards as ours. Please read the linked websites' terms and conditions.

Today's review is another system that trades 1 max position. The first thing I noticed when looking at all of the pairs they trade, 4 of the 6 currency pairs that Breadwinner trades were profitable. Though each pair individually doesn't show an RAR that would get me excited, I did a portfolio of all systems combined. The reason is because maybe the strategy they use is robust enough that each currency's drawdown smoothes out each other. However, in this situation that is not the case. If I pick the couple winners (GBPUSD, GBPJPY, and USDCHF), the resulting RAR does improve, though overall, the rewards aren't that exciting relative to the risk.

Positive aspects of this system include : been trading for 12 months, 1 max position, 4 of 6 pairs traded are profitable.

Negatives : perhaps not enough reward relative to the risk as measured through the RAR. The combined RAR of the 2 three providers is near 2.0 which is acceptable, though better ratios most likely exist.

Attached Thumbnails

 

__________________
Enroll in our online FX Power Course today and get personalized instruction from our team of expert traders 24 hours a day. We have taught over 25,000 students and in just eight lessons, we will teach you the fundamentals of Forex trading. Click here to get more information

*Past performance posted by Signal and Systems Providers (“Providers”), is not necessarily indicative of future results. No representation is made that any account is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particularly trading program. The composite monthly results are primarily hypothetical results of the master demo and its representation of the Providers, though performance results displayed may represent a combination of live and hypothetical results and are not exclusive to either. There are numerous other factors related to markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. In the event that specific trades were simultaneously executed in hypothetical and live, real-time trading, the lesser of the two results will be displayed. There is no guarantee that one applying these methodologies would have the same results as the hypothetically posted. Since trading successfully depends on many elements including but not limited to a trading methodology and a trader's own psychology, the web site does not make any representation whatsoever that the above mentioned trading systems might be or are suitable or that they would be profitable for you. Please realize the risk with any investment and consult investment professionals before proceeding. The trading systems herein described have been developed for sophisticated traders who fully understand the nature and the scope of the risks that are associated with trading. Should you decide to trade any or all of these systems' signals, it is your decision.

Links to third-party sites are provided for your convenience and for informational purposes only. Forex Capital Markets LLC bears no responsibility for the accuracy, content, or any other matter related to the external site or for that of subsequent links, and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from the use of this or any other content. Such sites are not within our control and may not follow the same privacy, security, or accessibility standards as ours. Please read the linked websites' terms and conditions.

Hello Jeremy,

A 'little' off the topic of systems turning 1 year, I'd like to ask your opinion.

The market seems to be moving towards a change in behavior - risk appetite/aversion and USD as 'safe haven' currency, possible bottom reached for the dollar - and this seems apparent since September. So, on a 3-month performance research, a system popped to my attention: one2three AUDUSD.

In my limited knowledge it seemed that, among the available successful systems, there were a couple that made it through similar conditions before. Systems around 2 years old, IntelliForex-Swing USDCHF and Quants-Carnival EURUSD. And QC don't trade a lot - don't even know if they're still alive.

Well, one2three AUDUSD seems to do well on the current market. It's very young, yes. On the other hand, if we assume the market conditions will stay as they are for a while... Can it be reasonable to give them (one2three) a chance on a live account, in your opinion?

When you look at this system, what is your impression about it?

Thank you

Update on the demo a/c with 3 systems (see below). Pulled back from a 10% drawdown to a current 10%+ gain.

Sum of P/L
System Total
Oleforex 435.8
Spread Plasma II 294
Xchange chromosome NH 614.5
Grand Total 1344.3

Jeremy's recommend systems (see below) have pulled back from earlier drawdown but still don't look too good. Plus this demo is running on much lower leverage than the other demo below.

System Total
BreakoutMaster 157.6
CADJPY-Mover -575.3
DBSwing -40.2
IntelliForex-Swing 43.5
PipSniper 105.8
Grand Total -308.6

Did you mean 'above'?

one2three AUDUSD is doing pretty well for me, as well as the same system for the EURCHF pair. The thing I find odd about one2three and ForexCN is that they incorporate Take Profit limits?! I say that because I am of the theory to let it ride and move up my stop loss but never "limit profit". Call me crazy, but I don't see the harm in the potential for unlimited upside. So what I have started to do now in demo is to immediately remove the Take Profit on those systems as soon as they establish a position. I have a good month's history with them as-is, but I'm not sure what difference it might make other than limiting the sytem from trying to open the max number of positions when losers might stop out.

Oddly enough with one2three, the winning trades (for me) never hit their Take Profit limits before closing??? The losers did hit the Stop Loss consistently. The result over a month is +732 pips (52 trades) on the AUDUSD, with more winners than losers of course, but the average losing trade being 150% larger than the average winning trade. That is why I am scratching my head on it even having a Take Profit if it's never going to even come close to hitting it.

I sure can't explain that. I added the system to a demo acct only a couple of days ago.

When they close positions before the target (TP) price - can it be because the move is losing momentum or turning back against the trade?

The numbers you post are intriguing to me. The final result looks good but the difference between the size of the winner and looser trades seems a bit disconcerting. I'm no expert though.*

For the moment, my demo has +40 pip closed (4 trades) and -70 pip open (also 4 positions) regarding one2three AUDUSD.

How do you see removing TP targets preventing the system from opening more positions? That I didn't get.



*Although it reminds me of a certain MT4 expert advisor

The sentiment has been very bearish towards the USD lately. When everybody gets loaded into one side of the boat, the boat tends to flip over. So yes, there are sensors indicating a changing of the guard. Take a look at a daily chart of any major pair and you can see an increase in volatility over the past couple weeks.

Here is the EURUSD below. Over the summer, volatility was contracting and getting smaller. Over the past 2-3 weeks, volatility has started to increase as bulls and bears fight it out. Notice how the recent bollinger band expansion is met with increased volatility. This could mean systems that favor low volatility may struggle as prices whip saw back and forth. Systems with wide stops may still be able to hit their targets though you could potentially be floating a large loss.

This provider you mention appears to have sensitive trading activity...collecting a small number of pips on many trades. That tends to make me nervous because it only takes a couple of large losers to wipe out a lot of winners. Then, when you factor in the commission, you could end up with a lot of trades and little to show for it. Times like these will give us a better idea of the risk involved in their strategy.

You can try it in a live account if you would like. I personally, like to look for more history so I can compare the rewards to the risk.

Attached Images

 

__________________
Enroll in our online FX Power Course today and get personalized instruction from our team of expert traders 24 hours a day. We have taught over 25,000 students and in just eight lessons, we will teach you the fundamentals of Forex trading. Click here to get more information

*Past performance posted by Signal and Systems Providers (“Providers”), is not necessarily indicative of future results. No representation is made that any account is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particularly trading program. The composite monthly results are primarily hypothetical results of the master demo and its representation of the Providers, though performance results displayed may represent a combination of live and hypothetical results and are not exclusive to either. There are numerous other factors related to markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. In the event that specific trades were simultaneously executed in hypothetical and live, real-time trading, the lesser of the two results will be displayed. There is no guarantee that one applying these methodologies would have the same results as the hypothetically posted. Since trading successfully depends on many elements including but not limited to a trading methodology and a trader's own psychology, the web site does not make any representation whatsoever that the above mentioned trading systems might be or are suitable or that they would be profitable for you. Please realize the risk with any investment and consult investment professionals before proceeding. The trading systems herein described have been developed for sophisticated traders who fully understand the nature and the scope of the risks that are associated with trading. Should you decide to trade any or all of these systems' signals, it is your decision.

Links to third-party sites are provided for your convenience and for informational purposes only. Forex Capital Markets LLC bears no responsibility for the accuracy, content, or any other matter related to the external site or for that of subsequent links, and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from the use of this or any other content. Such sites are not within our control and may not follow the same privacy, security, or accessibility standards as ours. Please read the linked websites' terms and conditions.

Hi Strongtower1, when you remove the take profit level, at what points do you manually 'trail' and adjust the stops?

__________________
Enroll in our online FX Power Course today and get personalized instruction from our team of expert traders 24 hours a day. We have taught over 25,000 students and in just eight lessons, we will teach you the fundamentals of Forex trading. Click here to get more information

*Past performance posted by Signal and Systems Providers (“Providers”), is not necessarily indicative of future results. No representation is made that any account is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particularly trading program. The composite monthly results are primarily hypothetical results of the master demo and its representation of the Providers, though performance results displayed may represent a combination of live and hypothetical results and are not exclusive to either. There are numerous other factors related to markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. In the event that specific trades were simultaneously executed in hypothetical and live, real-time trading, the lesser of the two results will be displayed. There is no guarantee that one applying these methodologies would have the same results as the hypothetically posted. Since trading successfully depends on many elements including but not limited to a trading methodology and a trader's own psychology, the web site does not make any representation whatsoever that the above mentioned trading systems might be or are suitable or that they would be profitable for you. Please realize the risk with any investment and consult investment professionals before proceeding. The trading systems herein described have been developed for sophisticated traders who fully understand the nature and the scope of the risks that are associated with trading. Should you decide to trade any or all of these systems' signals, it is your decision.

Links to third-party sites are provided for your convenience and for informational purposes only. Forex Capital Markets LLC bears no responsibility for the accuracy, content, or any other matter related to the external site or for that of subsequent links, and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from the use of this or any other content. Such sites are not within our control and may not follow the same privacy, security, or accessibility standards as ours. Please read the linked websites' terms and conditions.

On Oct 15, 3 sample portfolios using RAR were gathered. We are now 3 weeks later and here's a check in on them.

(To view the original post, go to this link.)

Sample Portfolio # 1 had the largest of the drawdowns prior to Oct 15. It immediately experienced a drawdown and is currently down $2,048. This is a good example of why its important to analyze the previous drawdowns to gain a perception of how deep they could run. Of the initial $10,000 investment, would you be ok with losing 20%?

Sample Portfolio #2 did experience a small drawdown, but was able to pull out of it and collect a net $602 in 3 weeks.

Sample Portfolio #3 is also net positive $125 after a mild drawdown.

One of the goals of having a portfolio of strategies is diversification. That is to say each individual strategy may experience their drawdowns at different times. That way, if market conditions change, you are not over exposed to a strategy who's drawdown will outpace the winners of your other providers.

Although the 2,000+ drawdown on Sample Portfolio #1 is the largest in the past 3 weeks, it is still within the realm of possibilities based on what has occurred in the past.

Attached Thumbnails

 

 

 

__________________
Enroll in our online FX Power Course today and get personalized instruction from our team of expert traders 24 hours a day. We have taught over 25,000 students and in just eight lessons, we will teach you the fundamentals of Forex trading. Click here to get more information

*Past performance posted by Signal and Systems Providers (“Providers”), is not necessarily indicative of future results. No representation is made that any account is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particularly trading program. The composite monthly results are primarily hypothetical results of the master demo and its representation of the Providers, though performance results displayed may represent a combination of live and hypothetical results and are not exclusive to either. There are numerous other factors related to markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. In the event that specific trades were simultaneously executed in hypothetical and live, real-time trading, the lesser of the two results will be displayed. There is no guarantee that one applying these methodologies would have the same results as the hypothetically posted. Since trading successfully depends on many elements including but not limited to a trading methodology and a trader's own psychology, the web site does not make any representation whatsoever that the above mentioned trading systems might be or are suitable or that they would be profitable for you. Please realize the risk with any investment and consult investment professionals before proceeding. The trading systems herein described have been developed for sophisticated traders who fully understand the nature and the scope of the risks that are associated with trading. Should you decide to trade any or all of these systems' signals, it is your decision.

Links to third-party sites are provided for your convenience and for informational purposes only. Forex Capital Markets LLC bears no responsibility for the accuracy, content, or any other matter related to the external site or for that of subsequent links, and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from the use of this or any other content. Such sites are not within our control and may not follow the same privacy, security, or accessibility standards as ours. Please read the linked websites' terms and conditions.

Can you explain what you mean "the EURUSD has been doing the same". Or: Which are the conditions you see the system thriving.

Thank you

Staying power staying power... Just a little mantra, trying to keep me centered

The platform says Leverage=1:17. Can it be that I'm over-leveraged?