Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.15 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.15 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 31.1% higher than yesterday and 123.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.4% lower than yesterday and 37.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 13.7% stronger than yesterday and 12.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

i think on the daily chart the trend is broke and we can see low priceses

im looking to get short the pound but am aware of support on daily chart around 2.0180 ,having seen a retracement of 38.2 at around 2.0300 im pondering on whether to get short now and ride out a bounce to 2.0420, 2.0480 ,50 and 61.8 levels or try and get in abit higher at those levels mentioned.Im tempted to get in now because uk data has been bad recently and will probably continue and i can only see .25 cut usa which is expected,anyone got any ideas?? obviously i dont want to be caught short if us cuts .50. and i wont second guess the fed.

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

We like to see that kind of dedication to the markets.

John,

I should clarify matters. These are the hours my speadbetting firm is open for business. Unfortunately as I can't access their trading platform at work my own hours are more limited. Probably the reason I take long term positions.

Fortunately DailyFX hasn't been blocked yet at work.

Originally Posted by pearsonian

im looking to get short the pound but am aware of support on daily chart around 2.0180 ,having seen a retracement of 38.2 at around 2.0300 im pondering on whether to get short now and ride out a bounce to 2.0420, 2.0480 ,50 and 61.8 levels or try and get in abit higher at those levels mentioned.Im tempted to get in now because uk data has been bad recently and will probably continue and i can only see .25 cut usa which is expected,anyone got any ideas?? obviously i dont want to be caught short if us cuts .50. and i wont second guess the fed.

I think chances of Fed 50bp cut are relatively small after Friday's NFP. In fact if they were to cut 50bp that would suggest serious panic to the markets and instead of helping would probably hurt them.

Cable appears to be holding under the 2.0425/30 level, as the bounce from 2.02 has proven fairly substantial. I suspect that trading will be pretty choppy ahead of tomorrow's FOMC rate decision, in which I think we'll see a 25bp cut (whether I agree that it's a good idea is an entirely different story). Nevertheless, a break above immediate resistance targets 2.05. On the other hand, a pull back finds support near 2.0330, which I think may be the more likely scenario within the next few hours.

Put in a sale order at 2.0400. Just a feeling.

Originally Posted by davetheeagle

Put in a sale order at 2.0400. Just a feeling.

I know what you mean...sharp moves like the jump we saw this morning tend to reverse rather quickly.

Added one for luck at 2.0350. I suppose even if the Fed only cuts 0.25% there is a probability that £ will clear 2.0500. Not sure whether it has much momentum after that albeit the long-term uptrend remains firmly in place.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.35 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.33 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.1% higher than yesterday and 12.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.3% higher than yesterday and 36.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.7% stronger than yesterday and 8.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

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I don't know if I would agree that GBPUSD would so easily breach 2.05 after tomorrow's FOMC decision. My projection is for only a quarter point hike - and though this is pretty well in line with economists' and the market's consensus, I still think their is some risk premium built in to protect against a surprise 50 bp drop. And, under those expectations, I would think the dollar would hold back against the break of any bigger resistance levels.

I see the 2.0515/50 area of significant resistance. We have the 20 and 50 day SMA's up at 2.0560, a fib confluence down around 2.05 and the range of lows from the final weeks of November.

If we have a failure high around this resistance level after a quarter point rate cut, I may jump in short at a good price for 100-125 points. Of course, need to keep it conservative since the medium and long-term trends are still pointing higher.

Opened a short at 2.0500 and have sale orders at 2.0450, 400 and 350. Larger orders at 400 and 350.

Originally Posted by davetheeagle

Opened a short at 2.0500 and have sale orders at 2.0450, 400 and 350. Larger orders at 400 and 350.

Dave, are you planning on holding onto this throughout the day, despite the FOMC decision this afternoon?

Originally Posted by Terri Belkas

Dave, are you planning on holding onto this throughout the day, despite the FOMC decision this afternoon?

What FOMC decision

Only small amounts to start. See my sale order at 2.0450 was hit on the way to work. Intending to hold as I think this is a good level.

Originally Posted by davetheeagle

What FOMC decision

Only small amounts to start. See my sale order at 2.0450 was hit on the way to work. Intending to hold as I think this is a good level.

lol, the more headlines I see about the rate decision, the more I'm convinced the price action post-announcement will be nothing but a blip on the radar. I think we could see a test of 2.0550/80, but not much beyond that.

However, I was also convinced that Cable would back off from 2.04 yesterday...