Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Terri Belkas

However, I was also convinced that Cable would back off from 2.04 yesterday...

That's OK as I'm convinced Cable is heading back to 1.85.

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

My projection is for only a quarter point hike - and though this is pretty well in line with economists' and the market's consensus, I still think their is some risk premium built in to protect against a surprise 50 bp drop. And, under those expectations, I would think the dollar would hold back against the break of any bigger resistance levels.

I see the 2.0515/50 area of significant resistance. We have the 20 and 50 day SMA's up at 2.0560, a fib confluence down around 2.05 and the range of lows from the final weeks of November.

If we have a failure high around this resistance level after a quarter point rate cut, I may jump in short at a good price for 100-125 points. Of course, need to keep it conservative since the medium and long-term trends are still pointing higher.

And, once again, I have missed a great move. My scenario was drawn out, I had all my orders set, and I turned off my computer for the night.

Come the morning and I open my charts; lo and behold, I missed entry on a short GBPUSD trade that would have hit my aggressive target with ease by two points and the spread.

However, I'm not that upset. I made a rational plan considering the event risk in the Fed decision, all my entry/stop/limit orders were well placed and entered, and I didn't modify the trade at all from when I first constructed it.

Oh well. I'll look for a long GBPUSD position if we retest 2.02 after the Fed announcement and we cover at least 150 points to draw out the latent momentum in the market. For a short, I will look for the same deceleration in an upside surge to 2.05215/35. I'll certainly wait for confirmation to see if these levels hold and I'm very unlikely to place a trade if the Fed cuts 50bp or not at all.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.15 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.07 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.7% higher than yesterday and 59.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.5% higher than yesterday and 10.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.2% stronger than yesterday and 14.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

And, once again, I have missed a great move. My scenario was drawn out, I had all my orders set, and I turned off my computer for the night.

Shame, I thought you guys followed the market 24/7.

Looks like we are slap bang in the middle of that congested area stretching back to early October. Certainly the DOW didn't like the decision.

Originally Posted by davetheeagle

That's OK as I'm convinced Cable is heading back to 1.85.

Dave, you are right. My MT bearish target is 1.9588 and my LT target is 1.8300. Looking for new opportunities to go short. Waiting for Europe... 2.0540, .0445 or .0390 areas are good to go short. monitoring it!

A.

Short here at .0570

Originally Posted by Black.day

Short here at .0570

You must have steel **lls ; 520 was the swing level but if it fails to hold then you got yourself a nice setup.

GL

Euchre

Cable can "eat my shorts" as Bart would say.

For Trichet it would be more like "Eat my shirts"

Been doing a senior citizens Christmas Party and missed all the action. What happened 2.0370 to 2.0560? Please post as I am still helping out and just touched base with a PC. Can't compalin too much though as still under 2.0050 as I type.

Couldn't type right obviously, I mean 2.0500.

GBP/USD: Buoyed by Fix Order "Reversal", 2.0500 Expiry Today 12/12/2007 14:41:00


London, December 12. Cable"s sharp one-and-a-quarter cent rally from lows around 2.0370 plumbed just after 13:15GMT is being attributed to the reversal of a GBP fix order which was allegedly done the wrong round. A 2.0500 option strike rolls off at today"s 10am Eastern NY cut (15:00GMT), and some sell interest may emerge at the expiry level. 2.0504 was yesterday"s early NY session high.

Further offers are tipped at 2.0520. Sell orders at the latter level capped GBP/USD at a six-day peak yesterday (in early European trade).

October"s larger-than-expected US trade deficit, and the upward revision to September"s US trade deficit, has also helped to buoy cable. 2.0460 (today"s London morning top) is now a support point.

Don't forget to pull out all the 'snaps' from the Christmas crackers, Dave (you can leave the miniature screwdriver sets inside)

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.04 as nearly 51% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.07 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.5% higher than yesterday and 49.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.0% higher than yesterday and 7.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.2% stronger than yesterday and 12.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

Don't you just hate some guy fat 'fingering'. Is that the word!

I remember some 200 point reversal on the DOW because someone pressed the wrong button and the next day it continued just because, because!

Originally Posted by Black.day

Don't forget to pull out all the 'snaps' from the Christmas crackers, Dave (you can leave the miniature screwdriver sets inside)

Damn, I missed that party pooper. The joint was rocking though - conga etc.