Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by weilene

actually, its oversold from 1.71 to 1.42. Really need some major correction

Hi weilene,

what technical indicator are you using to determine the Cable has been oversold since 1.71. RSI, stochastics? Or is this just your opinion?

4725 should hold, for now at least (no guarantees)..

4900 not so far away anymore..

top of channel rejected rise and pushed it back a little bit (4655).. we may as well break to the topside.. but there is a possibility of channel support retest (now at 4460-4480 area). what happens in between? who knows, as there are minor support levels in the middle.. just my opinion..

the pictures all messed up for me now..

closed longs and will wait for a reasonable pullback (if any), maybe 4580-4620 area or lower.. or a clear break of channel resistance..

Originally Posted by TAfool

Yes, but is it complete? I think it has one more upside leg (E, to 4640 or 4717?) before breaking the line lower. This also fits with my EUR/USD view of a little more upside then down. Whatever it does, position on line break.

Larger term, I have this as 2 of 5.
TAfool
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd05301030m.gif

Higher target hit. If it fulfills, target 4465. Watch failure point of 4591.
Bias, short

Originally Posted by TAfool

Higher target hit. If it fulfills, target 4465. Watch failure point of 4591.
Bias, short

hey TA, good call. I saw your wave count chart....question: how did you project 4717? fibonaccis?

Adding chart:
(small)
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0601105msmall.gif
(Regular)
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0601105m.gif

Why is failure point between two targets? First target is present small pattern. Second target is large wedge. If the second target fails to reach, the most likely failure point is the 50% mark, in which case this is leg 1 up of 3.

Rise above 4680 indicates current triangle pattern failure.

KP, 4717 target came from wave relations.

Larger target still stands at 1.3940

TAfool

Originally Posted by TAfool

Higher target hit. If it fulfills, target 4465. Watch failure point of 4591.
Bias, short

what do you mean TA? are you projecting we hit 4460 first before we go back up to 4700 level? and what is your maximum target on the upside before we take the plunge to 3940?

thanks alot

GBP/AUD is taking off!

Originally Posted by ponzmedulla

what do you mean TA? are you projecting we hit 4460 first before we go back up to 4700 level? and what is your maximum target on the upside before we take the plunge to 3940?

thanks alot

4717 was upside target. Down from here. However, if downside move fails and reverses at 4591 area then, and only then, do I see 4700 breached in the near term. Small pattern failure of rise above 4680 is also suspect of more upside.

Small pattern is flirting with 50% failure point now (4650 area). Needs to reach ~4621.

TAfool

Originally Posted by ponzmedulla

what do you mean TA? are you projecting we hit 4460 first before we go back up to 4700 level? and what is your maximum target on the upside before we take the plunge to 3940?

thanks alot

Here's a 4-hr chart to illustrate:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0601104hsmall.gif

It should go without saying....I could be completely wrong.


TAfool

Originally Posted by TAfool

Here's a 4-hr chart to illustrate:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0601104hsmall.gif

It should go without saying....I could be completely wrong.


TAfool

Once again, your pattern recognition skills are on point. Looks like 4717 coincided with 38.2 of 5476 decline as well. Good work, wish I'd picked up on this call earlier, I'd stayed in my short.

A-Yo Bro

Originally Posted by KP FX Trader

Hi weilene,

what technical indicator are you using to determine the Cable has been oversold since 1.71. RSI, stochastics? Or is this just your opinion?

Hi,
its not my opinion. I use long term moving average and technical retracement ( entering trade and placing stop loss). Pound has been trading below its fair value despite multiple tries to get even lower. It seems impossible. But you know, i play safe.

Chart Analysis just based on Prior Prices and chart Structure.

Blue Box shows Prior Support now turned Resistance. Cable Rallied to that point today and turned. .4720. (still resistance until broken and proven)

Originally Cable formed a Tight channel just under 4480 (support turned resistance). Tested the bottom 3 times (4250) and failed to make a new low.

Cable popped the top of the channel (4520) where it cleared stops and suckered in some shorts and fell back into the channel again (as expected. It doesn't have to pull back but usualy does)

Failed to move lower again (higher low). We now have a new high for cross trend traders to target (4600) which was cleared today.

4720 gave resistance becuase it was both a target and prior resistance. SMA traders are looking to target the 200 ma @ 4900. 4900 is also Prior resistance which helped push cable lower.

Watch for a break down pattern between 4900 and 4720 if you are thinking of shorting again.

Price makes new high and pulls back / new high and pulls back. This is alot of what elliot wave is based on. Highs and lows are counted in succession of 3 to 5.

Let price levels and chart patterns lead you. Price will move where Prior Support / Resistance was as it forms new support and resistance throughout the day.

Reguardless of what price does. If you don't have a strategy to trade what price is doing. Don't trade it.

What caused that last shot up????

Originally Posted by TAfool

Here's a 4-hr chart to illustrate:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0601104hsmall.gif

It should go without saying....I could be completely wrong.


TAfool

hi dear.
may i ask is it now consider failuer point 14591 failed & the pattern
wrong & shd start shooting high?

tks advise...pe

Originally Posted by james14577

What caused that last shot up????

Hey James,

Check out the euro/gbp cross. It's making new lows...potential target is .8290s or even 8250s. Sterling could be at 1.4750-70 for a potential short.