Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Panda Eyes

hi dear.
may i ask is it now consider failuer point 14591 failed & the pattern
wrong & shd start shooting high?

tks advise...pe

Uh, it's more like an EPIC FAILURE! The 4hr chart is still good for me. Long term, I'm still looking down. The short was good but for only an intra-day play, not an extended play that am looking for. New entry will be made higher up (in fact, I took one here, 4730 and will see what happens).

Actually, I don't think the patterns are ever wrong, but rather, the pattern reader (in this case, me)

TAfool

QUOTE=Big Brother;502685]Thank you for the insight. I almost always do long term (1 week to 3 months, generally) My stop is set at 1.4225. I agree, I am speculating; and yes, a break above 4600 help open up to other fib numbers. Risk-Reward is about 1:1.5.[/QUOTE]

My stop has been moved to break-even. The next fib number, 0.618 is at 1.4740, which was touched but did not go through. Should the pair break through, the next significant value appears to be the previous multi-month support at 1.4800 (See lows for March 1st and 25th). I'm still targeting 1.5025 at the 0.382 fib #.

Please see my daily chart.

Here is some real eye candy...

Months ago I noted a shooting star topping pattern on the monthly chart of EUR/GBP, and after several months of chopping around, price is now about to start heading much lower... The monthly bar made a significant close today below fibonacci support at .8420 signalling further weakness to come.. And only rightfully so after that beautiful shooting star pattern... Bears, saddle up..! This could be a long ride..!

EUR/GBP Monthly Chart ---->
JUNE 1st 2010

Originally Posted by TAfool

4717 was upside target. Down from here. However, if downside move fails and reverses at 4591 area then, and only then, do I see 4700 breached in the near term. Small pattern failure of rise above 4680 is also suspect of more upside.

Small pattern is flirting with 50% failure point now (4650 area). Needs to reach ~4621.

TAfool

Thanks for clarifying TA..

Originally Posted by TAfool

Uh, it's more like an EPIC FAILURE! The 4hr chart is still good for me. Long term, I'm still looking down. The short was good but for only an intra-day play, not an extended play that am looking for. New entry will be made higher up (in fact, I took one here, 4730 and will see what happens).

Actually, I don't think the patterns are ever wrong, but rather, the pattern reader (in this case, me)

TAfool

hi dear.
tks guide & yr comments. learning more everyday.

despite long term agreed bear. this squeeze up really irritating &
start to hit my confidence on my shorts.

if earlier 14650 hold, yr 14621 not reach, & yr 14591 failure point consider
hold too..then y u stil want to short @14730?

it took 6hrs for the pair to come dwn 100pips, but only 15min for it
back up 100pips at asia earlier..does it tel sth?

welcome everyone comments..tks..pe

Watch out for some serious Resistance Zone above 4780

+1 Asherewt

pic - > http://i078.radikal.ru/1006/9d/85813883b250.gif

bearish triagnle ...on eur/gbp also but bulish

Originally Posted by renkoMan

bearish triagnle ...on eur/gbp also but bulish

I'm with you on this renkoMan.

Some news to support this view, below: Anyone know what a yard is in currency terms??

Cable gains above 1.4700 have proved sustainable as a firm feel to trade emerges in early Europe, with a 1.4751 high being reached so far & clearing the key 1.4700/10 resistance as a result. Players had yest been eagerly awaiting some official comment from either AIG or Prudential on the future of the AIA deal, and the UK's Prudential has now officially called off the deal. Talk of a large currency hedge (short cable) put in place when the deal was first agreed now needs to be unwound, with some suggesting there is 10 YARDS to be done. How much of this is left to go is open to speculation, but overall the current Gbp bounce is seen as corrective only with limited room to run. Technical studies suggest that while there is continued scope for further near term gains, the pattern is possibly reaching exhaustion. The CIPS construction survey is due at 8.28gmt, followed by mortgage approvals and M4 money supply.

Originally Posted by meonia

I'm with you on this renkoMan.

Some news to support this view, below: Anyone know what a yard is in currency terms??

Cable gains above 1.4700 have proved sustainable as a firm feel to trade emerges in early Europe, with a 1.4751 high being reached so far & clearing the key 1.4700/10 resistance as a result. Players had yest been eagerly awaiting some official comment from either AIG or Prudential on the future of the AIA deal, and the UK's Prudential has now officially called off the deal. Talk of a large currency hedge (short cable) put in place when the deal was first agreed now needs to be unwound, with some suggesting there is 10 YARDS to be done. How much of this is left to go is open to speculation, but overall the current Gbp bounce is seen as corrective only with limited room to run. Technical studies suggest that while there is continued scope for further near term gains, the pattern is possibly reaching exhaustion. The CIPS construction survey is due at 8.28gmt, followed by mortgage approvals and M4 money supply.

Don't worry, just found the answer. A yard is slang for 1 billion.

Originally Posted by meonia

Don't worry, just found the answer. A yard is slang for 1 billion.

hi dear...
may i ask wht is yr call today, hehe..

see down but keep losing confidence, sigh..

Why I'm holding my latest short for at least a bit. EUR/USD moves in general tandem with GBP/USD. Never exact, to be sure, but roughly the same path.

The divergence over the last week is striking. Either the EUR/USD is going to rise to the GBP/USD level or the GBP/USD will sink to the EUR/USD level. Since the EUR is not likely to come up (nor at a faster rise than the GBP) the GBP is most likely the one to fall.

TAfool

http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusde...2104hsmall.gif

Originally Posted by Panda Eyes

hi dear...
may i ask wht is yr call today, hehe..

see down but keep losing confidence, sigh..

Hi PE! Fall back into the $1.44xx zone this morning. That's my call for now.

Not ruling out, that this should now go back towards 1.42xx area. But wait and see, long way to go.

As you'll see I shorted, and taken half of position at 1.4710. Now just watching and hoping for the big drop.

Originally Posted by TAfool

Why I'm holding my latest short for at least a bit. EUR/USD moves in general tandem with GBP/USD. Never exact, to be sure, but roughly the same path.

The divergence over the last week is striking. Either the EUR/USD is going to rise to the GBP/USD level or the GBP/USD will sink to the EUR/USD level. Since the EUR is not likely to come up (nor at a faster rise than the GBP) the GBP is most likely the one to fall.

TAfool

http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusde...2104hsmall.gif

Me too TAfool,

Somewhat prematurely I took a Short last night at 1.4636.

Mentally I had a 100 pip allowance for the price to go against me, set no profit or stop loss.

I was surprised however at the swift-ness of the rise.

Having reviewed the matter this morning my basis for the trade is just as strong and perhaps stronger then before.

Here are the 10min, 1Hr and 3Hr Charts showing that we appear to be facing quite a move down which may have started whilst I write this.

I use very highly tuned "twin-speed RSI's" to help me to determine where to enter and exit trades and the 1 & 3 hr charts particularly show that we are in a perfect shorting environment, with good divergence showing on the 1Hr chart and also the 3rd target ( the most common ) of the Fibo Expansion from the 20th ~ 25th Wave being met and now acting as resistance. ( If it breaks and hold however then 1.5 would be the next target ).

Colly
----

If we stay above 4680 (the May Monthly Pivot Point) we have further up to go.
4820 will bring some stalling, and maybe reversal from there. Just my 2 pips in the matter!

Took profit on long at 4750 with a Limit order from 4533 this morning.
Yesterday, closed a lot at 4675......too early...but that's where it's good to have multiple lots with different targets I guess.