Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

My taRGet for take profits was hit and I am currently looking at the top side of the rising trend channel , and the 50% fibo from last years high to this years low as an entry position for a few small shorts. 15630,15640,15660 areas with 100 point stops looking at the bottom of the rising trend line as a target area

I learnt from last years bounces that fundementals, gut feelings and everybody else with an opinion can be wrong at the same time.


The trendlines are like roads, don't stand in the middle wondering which way to go. Sit by the sides and make your mind up , and when you make your decision..look both ways !!

One of the counts that I am following for Cable has a nice bit of overhead resistance approaching for a potential major short opportunity. The 1.58 area is home to a confluence of old resistance and fibo resistance.

Note: cY(ii) should read cZ(ii)

Originally Posted by apipintime

One of the counts that I am following for Cable has a nice bit of overhead resistance approaching for a potential major short opportunity. The 1.58 area is home to a confluence of old resistance and fibo resistance.

Note: cY(ii) should read cZ(ii)

Hi apipintime.. are you considering this area to be a possible end of a wave 2?

Originally Posted by ponzmedulla

Hi apipintime.. are you considering this area to be a possible end of a wave 2?

Hi,

Yes, the end of wave (ii) of 5 from the 2.11 highs back in 2007.

Shooting star was formed on the 4hr chart. I placed a short at 1.5615. Hope to ride it down to 1.52 area.

Vincent

Originally Posted by Vincent6

Shooting star was formed on the 4hr chart. I placed a short at 1.5615. Hope to ride it down to 1.52 area.

Vincent

Rather false breake on news. Need 1.5565 to be breaken once more. In my mind top is somewhere here, King said do not be to optimistic about 2Q GDP. But market is extremly optimistic about UK pound. Psyhologicaly market ignore the reality a go for a while with the trend, but reversal wiil be

Originally Posted by fazi

Hi Markie6,

Here`s weekly ichi chart - bottom of the kumo as well as kijun sen have been broken - this supports bullish case.

1.56 is 100SMA (weekly) which coincides with MM resistance (1.5625). Next level is 100 EMA (1.6070).

Patryk

Hi Patryk,

If today is the high , please advise the next turning point. I think should be around 10 Aug.

Vincent

Originally Posted by jiggy123

I agree with you because over 4-hour chart I watched a bullish flag and yes this time I expect that pair may be touch 1.57 level before back

I suggest caution on direction....... your oscillators are showing divergence

[QUOTE=jiggy123;551858]I agree with you because over 4-hour chart I watched a bullish flag and yes this time I expect that pair may be touch 1.57 level before back

I am not suggesting to go long. Flags not always good patter especially in cable case. Also I hold some short near current highs, with tight stops.
It is hard to say the reversal point. if 1.5560 wont hold , at least seatback towards 1.55

Hmm, my long as posted the other week doing very well. Not had time to trade, and have just trailed stop. We all know, when Cable decides to move up the hill, it's a currency and woe betide all who try and short it.

Originally Posted by Vincent6

Hi Patryk,

If today is the high , please advise the next turning point. I think should be around 10 Aug.

Vincent

Hi Vincent,

as John posted before - ITD6 and MTD3 bottoms are in. ITD7 has still 2 days to come. Tomorrow should be an important day, as well as th10th of aug. We`ll see.

Patryk

John, what about you? As I understand with each hour the top probability increases. Do you believe in some certain level which can be as the final barrier. And what is telling your analysis, after turning down will it be the 3rd wave or just setback and no new yearly low? I think that todays high maybe the point, or after setback in two days we will see new one high. But if euro will confirm diamond patern, i will vote for todays high a as reverse point.

The GBP/USD has moved up through the previous high and closed above the 200-day Simple Moving Average. This is an uptrend which means that we should start looking for buying opportunities. I like to wait for a pullback down to support and a reversal back to the direction of the uptrend before buying. The GBP does seem to be the strongest currency right now with the USD being the weakest, but that can change quickly in new trends. The key is to compare relative strength and weakness on a daily basis so you can adjust quickly if any changes are noted.

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/daily...trend-day.html

Originally Posted by jolopino

John, what about you? As I understand with each hour the top probability increases. Do you believe in some certain level which can be as the final barrier. And what is telling your analysis, after turning down will it be the 3rd wave or just setback and no new yearly low? I think that todays high maybe the point, or after setback in two days we will see new one high. But if euro will confirm diamond patern, i will vote for todays high a as reverse point.

Hi
It's tricky right now - there are two possibilities.

1. We are in the process of putting in a top on ITD 7. that would mean MTD 4 and likely LTD 3 arriving early. it's possible

2. We are in the process of putting in ITD 7 but it's not yet the high. in which case we will get a pullback into ITD 8 before the next and final leg higher.

ITD 7 is due Friday, if it's a turn point on the MTD time frame (option 1) it should come on time or early.

If it's an intermediate high only (option 2) then it will usually come late by a day or so.

A break below 1.5131 confirms the top is in.

It's tricky to make a call - and not helped by the fact that trying to get a clean EW count from the 1.4245 low is difficult.

I've shown the 2 possibilities on the chart below

I can see a hanging man forming in the daily chart...at the top of the daily raising channel, could this be the chance for going short??...I think its time, what do you think ?