Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by manglanimanish

u long at 198.60 ??ok square of now, at 199.10 book ur profit and take a new trade, by trading on the release of the ddp and rate cut...

Hello manglanimanish,

I remember you are from U.A.E.

Actually I bought at 198.00 .(I wrote it as 1.9860 because it is the curresponding spot price as our price is 50-60 pips below the spot.)

And GBP datas are released. Thank God! They didn't bring much harm to the trend. Now our price reached at 198.77. I am still holding the position and decided to wait until today evening. FED rate cut expectations can take GBP to my goal, I think. And after exiting at 199.10(may God bless!) my plan is to wait for a top price and go short with 2 lots.

Weekly chart tells me that ( ofcourse, I am not an expert) we can see a better price on Friday clossing.

By this time price reached at 198.80! My pending order at 199.10 smiles at me in the 5th place of best five.

Let me conclude. My price is on the way.

What is your position of trading?

Happy tading.

You may remember I asked for opinions a couple of weeks ago as to when to change a chunk of GBP into USD. Well, there was a bit of a delay, and some other stuff which took priority, which meant that I finally ordered the trade on January 23 when the rate was still dropping steadily. I got 1.931 with zero commission.

The next day, the rate started going back up. January 23 is still the YTD Low.

(sigh)

I knew I should have just moved to Yorkshire instead.

Is it just me or are there others out there saying , hmm fed drops 50bps today @ 19:15 gmt and cable rallies so lets all get long cable.

Markets love to move where it isn't expected and sounds like the crowd favors weaker $ and 50bps lower. Wouldn't it be just like the Fx mkt to rally US$ in the wake of the 50bps or would that only occur if we get 25?

Call me a conspiracy theorist but 600 pip move retrace in 8 calendar days with nar a retrace.

Just tossing an thought out there. I see COT is commercial long and the SSI now showing

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.06 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.02 as 50% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 17.3% higher than yesterday and 1.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 26.6% higher than yesterday and 48.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 21.9% stronger than yesterday and 24.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

<< Ok so the SSI says longs getting longer up 17% since yest but not holding it . Shorts piling on 27% up and 49% since last week. OI is also up strong. This telling me to lean toward cable longs >>
I, however will be flat into the news and probably miss it whichever way it goes.

Euchre

Disclaimer Trading Currencies involves risk. Any opinion, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice.

Originally Posted by Euchre

Is it just me or are there others out there saying , hmm fed drops 50bps today @ 19:15 gmt and cable rallies so lets all get long cable.

Markets love to move where it isn't expected and sounds like the crowd favors weaker $ and 50bps lower. Wouldn't it be just like the Fx mkt to rally US$ in the wake of the 50bps or would that only occur if we get 25?

Call me a conspiracy theorist but 600 pip move retrace in 8 calendar days with nar a retrace.

I'm thinking along similar lines Euchre. We have seen GBPUSD tumble over 1800 points from its November high and this just looks like a retracement that is coming through a settling in volatility (and right before tremendous event risk). There is undoubtedly a component of the market pricing in a 50 bp cut from the Fed and commentary to suggest they will leave the door open after that for some time. Certainly no conspiracy there.

IMO, after this rebound, if the FOMC doesn't give us some very bearish news (like a greater than expected cut and/or rhetoric that says growth is worsening and inflation is improved and further easing is nearly guaranteed) we could very well see the dollar rebound. The market has been pretty generous in pricing in a dovish Fed, so there may be too much risk premium for a potentially deeper cut. Unwinding of some of the excess seems to be a pretty good probability.

However, I would still remain cautious after announcement as we still have to consider Friday's NFPs...

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

I'm thinking along similar lines Euchre. We have seen GBPUSD tumble over 1800 points from its November high and this just looks like a retracement that is coming through a settling in volatility (and right before tremendous event risk). There is undoubtedly a component of the market pricing in a 50 bp cut from the Fed and commentary to suggest they will leave the door open after that for some time. Certainly no conspiracy there.

IMO, after this rebound, if the FOMC doesn't give us some very bearish news (like a greater than expected cut and/or rhetoric that says growth is worsening and inflation is improved and further easing is nearly guaranteed) we could very well see the dollar rebound. The market has been pretty generous in pricing in a dovish Fed, so there may be too much risk premium for a potentially deeper cut. Unwinding of some of the excess seems to be a pretty good probability.

However, I would still remain cautious after announcement as we still have to consider Friday's NFPs...

WOW! That was a whopper!
After FOMC and the large move in most pairs of about 100 pips I waited exactly 1 hour and went short GBPUSD at 1.9942 and EURUSD at 1.488.
Target? For EURUSD at least 250-300 pips, for GBPUSD down to 1.975
We will see, how it develops.
Happy trading!
Mike

Hi every one ,

A question with John Kicklighter and Euchre , fed drops 50bps announced, now what we have conclude for the pairs gbp????

have we some clear conclusion for pair after annoucement min for comming month or some shorter time farame.

I'm very thank full if you both comments on it , its easy to understant.

Originally Posted by studentforex

Hi every one ,

A question with John Kicklighter and Euchre , fed drops 50bps announced, now what we have conclude for the pairs gbp????

have we some clear conclusion for pair after annoucement min for comming month or some shorter time farame.

I'm very thank full if you both comments on it , its easy to understant.

First off- let me say I trade exclusively on the technicals. I typical am flat going into "major" news events though modest events if the system says X and risk/reward is right then I am in regardless of news (may just scale down pos'n). Studentfx, if you want to understand what happens next I believe we won't fully know until the rest of the week unfolds as major NFP release comes in 40 short hours.
My fundy hat....
As of late Cable and Euro are taking their cues from the US equity mkt ( with stock mtk weakness weighing on e/j cross e/$ and cable/jpy & cable). May sound contrary but its a flight to quality safety in US$ (atleast that is what it appears). If risk returns and the stock mkt resumes it corrective move then I would suspect $ to sell off against majors including yenny euro and cable.

My tech hat....
As for the what happens next, Euro cant fight the trend for now and its higher (push thru 4922) accelerates to ATH (alltimehigh). Cable weekly chart rolled over and this looks corrective. Dailies more constructive but cautious. You have to pick your timeframe to trade and adjust your positioning and stops to the volatility of the timeframe.

Wish I could give you more but for now this rejection at 9960 on cable is significant, however will it pause and eventually breach or pb is unknown where I see it. Possibly move back to 9780 area, but intraday trend still higher for now. Let's not forget COT report is now commercially very long and you don't want to fight those big boys. Fade the spec's follow the commercials...

Final Thoughts...
Lastly- I still can't shake that thought in my head that says is our FOMC really behind the curve or are they really maybe not today's business but in the future realize they are ahead of the curve and the BoE and ECB will be in catchup mode ??? BoC dropped 50 bps in last 6 wks, BoE a mere 25 bps, ECB and JCT with his "price stability, 2ndary effects, is getting old." I suspect we have to break that 1.50/ 1.5x level whatever suck all the longs in we can before a significant and lengthy correction ensues for the Euro. We may even see this "top" when the SSI flips from short to long and the COT flips from long to short.

Euchre

Caught in a bit of no man's land here. The Fed has dug a big hole and continues digging. Interest rate differentials are now 250bp!! The Bank of England will cut at sometime but can't see more than 25bp when it does and that may not even be when they meet again in February.

I exited most of my position between 1.9900 and 1.9930 after the Fed announcement yesterday. I will be fully out at either 1.9840 or 1.9950, whichever comes first. Then buyer at 1.9990 and seller at 1.9790.

Anyone checking out EURGBP? The pair has backed off from resistance at 0.7475 and appears to be falling into a bit of a range. I used to really like trading this pair, but when it rocketed through the roof, the change in dynamic put me off a bit and I moved onto other things. However, EURGBP is starting to grow on me once again...I'm short from 0.7472 and looking for a move down to approx 0.7400, though if I see the declines peter out around 0.7415 I may jump ship.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.07 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.02 as 50% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 11.3% higher than yesterday and 6.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 21.6% higher than yesterday and 42.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 16.4% stronger than yesterday and 19.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.


< This calls for Cable strength. That 9942/9960 level is also monster R and higher up weekly rolled over. This looks choppy here as the pair is almost like looking over its shoulder every rise to see if it gets squashed. I mean it was dragged higher by Euro/$ only to reverse hardly shortly thereafter. Cautiously bullish cable based on SSI and intraday, however ....>>

Euchre

Disclaimer Trading Currencies involves risk. Any opinion, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice.

Hi every one,

I think that gbp in 4th wave down that targeted 1.9735/45 as jamei stated on his comments (buy dip) and than 5th wave up targeted min 2.0005/35/100 and its compleate its big A and than down for B at 1.9570 or 600 area and big C min 2.0250 or2.0400 area
Its related on basis of SSI and COT data.
In other way gbp go form here 2.0035/100 in my view affter fomc announcement its Big wave 2 compleaing for more weaking gbp for wave 3 through 1.9440 more conformation if 1.9530 cuould not sustain. any way let see, their may probalities that market can do.
Any One Can Share Their Views will be apriseated.

Originally Posted by studentforex

Hi every one ,

A question with John Kicklighter and Euchre , fed drops 50bps announced, now what we have conclude for the pairs gbp????

have we some clear conclusion for pair after annoucement min for comming month or some shorter time farame.

I'm very thank full if you both comments on it , its easy to understant.

Well, its hard to find a distinct corollary between the Fed's actions and the pound crosses. However, I have no doubt that the cooling US economy that is reflected in the Fed's easing will eventually drag the UK down along with it (as long as the lull in expansion in the US lasts at least two quarters) and the BoE will likely lower in response.

Another possible side affect of the Fed's easing for the pound in general is that the Fed had initially ushered in the global trend of lower interest rates (the BoC and BoE followed suit with easing of their own) and the intensified easing will likely encourage other banks to ease in a preemptive fashion.

For GBPUSD, the Fed's additional easing and commentary to suggest no end in sight will have less and less long-term effect on the pair. Besides pricing in at least 25 bp of easing over the next three meetings, the market has almost fully priced in a weak dollar. The dollar is so oversold that there the downside has to be limited - especially in comparison to the risk of a sizable rebound. I hear a lot of commentary that the dollar is finished and such, but the financial routs and pull backs in GDP are natural market ebb and flow.

Summary: I'm still a long term bear, but I'm cautious of a rally to 2.0039 or 2.0200 on unforeseen event risk.

Hi Terri,

I have been watching EUR/GBP for a long time, well since I went short at 7100 Not sure why I didn't close this impulse short weeks ago. Glad it's on a daily rollover so I haven't noticed the money going out of my account. I have an order in at 6900 to take my profits when the euro collapses

With the £ relatively becalmed it looks like time to short the Dow again. Just for fun you understand.

Hello traders,

Anyone noticed the candle formation on today's chart?

It looks like horizontally inverted (or vertically? I am confused!) to both sides from 3 p.m where the candle shows 1.9945 as high,1.9904 low and 1,9940 close.

Anyone can explain about this?

Thanks.

hello everyone..

i am short at 198.66 with 7 contracts...can anyone see the pound go below this on friday.. i am banking big on the non farm payrolls which i think should take the gbp to 196.90 or something...if not id probably average a few more contract at the 198.40/50 level...my stop losses will be in the 200 ++
i am nail biting,
id probably make it or break it tom...
any comments to pacify my thoughts....would be greatly appreciated
rgds/
mani