Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

Probability is more on the downside according to technical look.

Originally Posted by piri

Greg,

May I know your opinion about GBP/AUD current trend?

Weekly looks bullish in coming days with MACD cross to upside,
I'm waiting for cross of 10 day and 20 day SMA to confirm my view (1st chart)
Higher high and higher low in 4h chart (1 week timeframe) and a bounce from 1 week TL support led me to Long this pair today at dip @1.6057 (second chart)
But I'm a bit disappointed of lacking momentum so far

Hello Piri,

I see a Double Top, a bearish price chart formation, which indicates a price drop.

I don't have the brass cojones to short this beast, but I do see a corrective c wave on this 4hr before pushing higher.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello Piri,

I see a Double Top, a bearish price chart formation, which indicates a price drop.

Thanks Greg, following yesterday close it looks indeed bearish and look like double top

exited my long yesterday with -38 pips loss,
short entered on the 1 week support TL break exit with +28 pips,
net loss is -10 pips

but i notice it still cannot break 20 day sma, will stand aside and watch

Originally Posted by happel

I don't have the brass cojones to short this beast, but I do see a corrective c wave on this 4hr before pushing higher.

Hi Gregory,


Could you please tell us what will the strategy for next week ? To me it seems that this GBPUSD is in the over brought zone and we may see a downtrend. Please correct me and advice us what to do next ?

Thnx n rgds

GD

Originally Posted by gaurdas06

Hi Gregory,


Could you please tell us what will the strategy for next week ? To me it seems that this GBPUSD is in the over brought zone and we may see a downtrend. Please correct me and advice us what to do next ?

Thnx n rgds

GD

Hi gaurdas6,

Forex @ DailyFX - Forex Sentiment | Forex Technical Analysis

with SSI reading above 3 I`d expect a vertical ride up despite overbouht signals.

from delta perspective ITD3/MTD10 bottom is most likely in. ITD 4 top is due next thursday.

Weekly 100 EMA seems to be giving up as a resistance.

Patryk

Originally Posted by happel

I don't have the brass cojones to short this beast, but I do see a corrective c wave on this 4hr before pushing higher.

Originally Posted by fazi

Hi gaurdas6,

Forex @ DailyFX - Forex Sentiment | Forex Technical Analysis

with SSI reading above 3 I`d expect a vertical ride up despite overbouht signals.

from delta perspective ITD3/MTD10 bottom is most likely in. ITD 4 top is due next thursday.

Weekly 100 EMA seems to be giving up as a resistance.

Patryk

Thxn Patryk...

GD

Originally Posted by fazi

Hi gaurdas6,

Forex @ DailyFX - Forex Sentiment | Forex Technical Analysis

with SSI reading above 3 I`d expect a vertical ride up despite overbouht signals.

from delta perspective ITD3/MTD10 bottom is most likely in. ITD 4 top is due next thursday.

Weekly 100 EMA seems to be giving up as a resistance.

Patryk

Hi Patryk,

Still waiting SLTD5/LTD5 to arrive. If SLTD5 arrived so late, then SLTD6 will have shorter period, maybe 5 to 6 months. What is your view on this. I think the next resistance is the EMA200 which comes around at 1.65. I have long from 1.60 & hope to exit around 1.64 region.

Originally Posted by Vincent6

Hi Patryk,

Still waiting SLTD5/LTD5 to arrive. If SLTD5 arrived so late, then SLTD6 will have shorter period, maybe 5 to 6 months. What is your view on this. I think the next resistance is the EMA200 which comes around at 1.65. I have long from 1.60 & hope to exit around 1.64 region.

Hi Vincent,

Since SLTD4 bottom was above SLTD2 bottom, SLTD5/LTD5 top should be above 1.704. 1.63-4 could give temporary resistance.

Patryk

Originally Posted by fazi

Hi Vincent,

Since SLTD4 bottom was above SLTD2 bottom, SLTD5/LTD5 top should be above 1.704. 1.63-4 could give temporary resistance.

Patryk

Hi Patryk,

Thanks. This means that the pound will be heading north until next month to complete SLTD5/LTD5.

Vincent

Originally Posted by fazi

Hi Vincent,

Since SLTD4 bottom was above SLTD2 bottom, SLTD5/LTD5 top should be above 1.704. 1.63-4 could give temporary resistance.

Patryk

Hi Patryk,

Thanks. At the meantime, trade on the smaller timeframe of ITD/MTD. Will buy on dips until next month.

Vincent

The U.S. President's Day Holiday could see decreased trading volumes as traders in the U.S. take that day off.

When they come back, they along with other traders will be welcomed by a slew of Economic data including Bank of England Minutes and US GDP:

Originally Posted by gaurdas06

Hi Gregory,


Could you please tell us what will the strategy for next week ? To me it seems that this GBPUSD is in the over brought zone and we may see a downtrend. Please correct me and advice us what to do next ?

Thnx n rgds

GD

Hello Gaurdas,

On a Daily Chart, it appears that GBP/USD has a failed Head and Shoulders Pattern. Price has broken above the right shoulder and is moving higher. Since many traders may have been short GBP/USD as a result of this pattern, a failed pattern may have a large amount of traders on the wrong side of the trade. A short squeeze rally could send this pair back above 1.6300.

This is just my opinion.

A Close Below 77.50 on the US Dollar Index confirms Pattern Failure and signal rallies to new highs in the majors against the Dollar. Many Dollar bulls have seen this inverted Head and Shoulders pattern and have been encouraged. However this push below the right shoulder at 77.50 may signal renewed dollar selling and a push toward new highs for GBP/USD, EUR/USD and AUD/USD, etc.

Originally Posted by tomaz

hello 'OUCH' do you like my cable long now? stop held, this is going to 1.6400 you wait and see..

cable will top out around 6460, i will be long and reverse there
moved my stop to 6110