Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

to be more clear

Attachment 82544

good luck

Good morning,

China "Attacks The Dollar" - Moves To Further Cement Renminbi Reserve Currency Status | zero hedge

this would make US deficit funding sole FED responsibility.

Patryk

Originally Posted by fazi

Good morning,

China "Attacks The Dollar" - Moves To Further Cement Renminbi Reserve Currency Status | zero hedge

this would make US deficit funding sole FED responsibility.

Patryk

Um this is a REAL threat to the USD....

Hmmmmmmmmmm

Originally Posted by fazi

Good morning,

China "Attacks The Dollar" - Moves To Further Cement Renminbi Reserve Currency Status | zero hedge

this would make US deficit funding sole FED responsibility.

Patryk

They can't maintain the renminbi peg to the US dollar and have the renminbi as the reserve currency. They can't have it both ways. And if they break the peg their currency will explode upwards, which means their export driven manufacturing economy would collapse, resulting in high unemployment and social unrest.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Carry Trade Candidate: Short GBP/AUD- GBP/AUD is finding resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci from the swing down from 1.6261 down to the 4-hour Feb. 25th low of 1.5780.

GBP/AUD on the Move South! - After reaching a high just shy of 1.6100 at the beginning of the month, GBP/AUD has dropped 118 pips in the 4-hours!

Originally Posted by Mary R

They can't maintain the renminbi peg to the US dollar and have the renminbi as the reserve currency. They can't have it both ways. And if they break the peg their currency will explode upwards, which means their export driven manufacturing economy would collapse, resulting in high unemployment and social unrest.

That's why the chinese are also printing tons of money... now a day in china seeing people carry a big bag full of cash is not uncommon since the government print so much... But I agree with you that the peg can't sustain it - Unless the government keep printing more money.... May be the chinese got the lesson from Ben Bernanke, be the world currency and print the money to keep the peg...lol

Hi Mary,

the trick is a new 5 year plan and a transition to more consumer-driven economy - instead of spending most of export profit on US notes (Portuguise, Greek) you invest in domestic consumption - This could be a perfect moment to get things solved this way.

edit: ultimately unpegging renminbi has always been US goal (at least in a verbal sphere), but it may fulfill in the most uncomfortable time for the US

Patryk

In the meantime EURGBP seems to be breaking upside from the diamond pattern. This makes me cautious as far as cable rally is concerned.


Patryk

yes, the Chinese government wants to encourage spending and internal consumption, but the population has a long history of saving, saving and saving. So ironically they may have to acquire the spending habits of the debt ridden American consumers to continue to grow their economy. I am thinking ITD4 was in at 1.6350 on GBPUSD but with Trichet mouthing off about inflation and the BOE meeting next week I am hesitant to short here. My guess is that the US employment report tomorrow will be good but not spectacular. There is private employment growth but there are still layoffs in the state and municipal areas.

Originally Posted by AyoBro

Hmmmmmmmmmm

Update............

50ma on 30/hrly sitting on price

ok,

Bullish case:

ITD5 is due on monday so its bottom may as well be in today (or already is in). I see 3 possibilities : a triangle (ITD5 bottom in), a running flat (ITD5 bottom in), an expanded flat with an ending diagonal as a wave C (ITD5 bottom comes today arround 1.62).

Bearish case:

well - a double top and down we go - One can notice a perfectly equal zigzag up from MTD10 bottom (1.5961).

EurGbp daily chart makes me scratch me head a lot. The Eu could be a much better long against the dollar if the trend continues.

Patryk

GBP/NZD: Negative MACD Divergence Could Signal a Pullback

Originally Posted by fazi

ok,

Bullish case:

ITD5 is due on monday so its bottom may as well be in today (or already is in). I see 3 possibilities : a triangle (ITD5 bottom in), a running flat (ITD5 bottom in), an expanded flat with an ending diagonal as a wave C (ITD5 bottom comes today arround 1.62).

Bearish case:

well - a double top and down we go - One can notice a perfectly equal zigzag up from MTD10 bottom (1.5961).

EurGbp daily chart makes me scratch me head a lot. The Eu could be a much better long against the dollar if the trend continues.

Patryk

Hi Patryk
Im short this morning - I think ITD4 is in at 1.6350. Good NFP report is dollar bullish. I don't think the BOE will raise rates next week. Im having a hard time posting a chart with this new forum set up.

Originally Posted by Mary R

Hi Patryk
Im short this morning - I think ITD4 is in at 1.6350. Good NFP report is dollar bullish. I don't think the BOE will raise rates next week. Im having a hard time posting a chart with this new forum set up.

Hi Mary,

ITD4 could have topped out @ 1.6327 and ITD5 bottomed out @ 1.6214

Patryk