Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

Hi,

For last few days we have seen lots of volatility on this pair. It is moving in between 1.6170 - 1.6345 (approx). Gone steadily up and there after steadily down. Its very unpredictable. Can somebody explain the characteristic of this pair ?

Thnx n rgds,

GD

Originally Posted by AyoBro

Update.........

Update..............

Originally Posted by meonia

Tried to attach this earlier, but got kicked-out.

Well after a short from the top, I closed out at today's 50% retracement area. However, I'm entertaining the following scenario. If we break 1.6230/40s area, then looking for further retracement, but ultimately support at 1.6130s area for a move back up.

Well the £ appears to have bounced nicely, albeit just a fraction below my expectations. (See chart on previous post).

Looking for a substantial move higher now. Needs to take out 1.62xx area first, and expect significant near-term resistance at 1.6235 area. Look for move higher towards 1.6390+ area in the coming days.

Hi Meonia
are you thinking the BOE might raise rates?

Good call Meonia.....very good call indeed.

Mary, M. King is speaking tonight so unless that push GBP up, I will say a rate hike is needed to push it pass the recent high of 16350.

On delta wise (my view), assuming today is the low ITD5 which is a day late base on Patryk's and two days base on John's. If another low is form tomorrow, my bias will change to short. Currently nursing some longs.

Good luck guys

GBP/USD Pop then Drop?

Originally Posted by Rapidsagii

Good call Meonia.....very good call indeed.

Mary, M. King is speaking tonight so unless that push GBP up, I will say a rate hike is needed to push it pass the recent high of 16350.

On delta wise (my view), assuming today is the low ITD5 which is a day late base on Patryk's and two days base on John's. If another low is form tomorrow, my bias will change to short. Currently nursing some longs.

Good luck guys

Thanks Rapidsagii. I agree, a rate hike is probably required, but expect some momentum upwards again tomorrow morning, and Thursday morning.

Mary, I do think the BOE need to raise rates sooner rather than later, if only a quarter point. Inflation is going north, so it's a matter of time. There won't be a huge hike, the fragile housing market could not survive that. I put the chances of a quarter point hike at 55%, slightly above 50-50. Next month will be a different story though. Expect much improved GDP figures, and increasing inflation indicators in the weeks to come.

If we break 1.62 again, I will be watching the 1.6235 area like a hawk. Key area in my view to lead us substantially higher.

That makes sense I am going to try to short again at 1.6350 - I think next week's Fed meeting will likely be moderately dollar bullish, the employment report did show solid job growth.

Originally Posted by Mary R

That makes sense I am going to try to short again at 1.6350 - I think next week's Fed meeting will likely be moderately dollar bullish, the employment report did show solid job growth.

Would you happen to have a long up to 163.50 atm?

i think we might be in reversal mode , watch 1.6030 .

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

GBP/NZD: Negative MACD Divergence Could Signal a Pullback

Two cases of Negative MACD Divergence Warned of a Reversal of Fortunes for GBPNZD :269 Pip Drop

Originally Posted by meonia

Thanks Rapidsagii. I agree, a rate hike is probably required, but expect some momentum upwards again tomorrow morning, and Thursday morning.

Mary, I do think the BOE need to raise rates sooner rather than later, if only a quarter point. Inflation is going north, so it's a matter of time. There won't be a huge hike, the fragile housing market could not survive that. I put the chances of a quarter point hike at 55%, slightly above 50-50. Next month will be a different story though. Expect much improved GDP figures, and increasing inflation indicators in the weeks to come.

If we break 1.62 again, I will be watching the 1.6235 area like a hawk. Key area in my view to lead us substantially higher.

Closed longs and went short at 1.6235. Will need to break 1.6205 region now for further downside. Expecting support though around 1.6180s for now. Will close half of position at 1.6205 and move stops to break-even, remainder set at 1.6180 area.

Originally Posted by meonia

Closed longs and went short at 1.6235. Will need to break 1.6205 region now for further downside. Expecting support though around 1.6180s for now. Will close half of position at 1.6205 and move stops to break-even, remainder set at 1.6180 area.

Closed half position at 1.6185 instead, remaining half open, stops at break-even, although I have a hunch that I should close the other half here. But will wait...

Hi everyone,

here`s an interesting read:

Exclusive: Bill Gross Dumps All Treasuries, Brings Total "Government Related" Holdings To Zero, Flees To Cash - No QE3? | zero hedge

I`m not sure yet how it will affect cable...

Should we go above 1.624, most likely ITD6 top is in cards for coming days- John`s adjusted ITD4&5 dates look good to me so far.

OTOH - if it (1.624) survives - a classsic 5-0 reversal pattern is forming.

Patryk

Originally Posted by AyoBro

Update.........

Update.............

Update...... GU at a crossroad, does it follow AU/EU down or does it reject dollar strength?