Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

Winner, winner chicken dinner... catchin' lotsa pips on this one .....

Thanks editt .... hope your gettin' summa that....

every time I see this chart pattern the price always falls below the "heel" .... I'm betting it bounces off 162 .... (30m chart)

Originally Posted by fazi

Hi,

MTD (12) bottom confirmed - going up to MTD12/LTD5 top, or (super bullish) we had LTD5 with MTD11 top and LTD6 with MTD(12) bottom.

Patryk

Patryk,

Cable is making a clear impulsive 5 down (could be a-b-c-d-e top 5 now), how do you see this according to delta?
Could be only an a-b-c correction?

Originally Posted by Easy Trader

Patryk,

Cable is making a clear impulsive 5 down (could be a-b-c-d-e top 5 now), how do you see this according to delta?
Could be only an a-b-c correction?

Hi,

I don`t think wave pattern off the very top looks like w1 impulse, unless there is a truncation and w1 starts from 1.6382.

For me it is a corrective move down - ITD7 bottom today is just fine from delta perspective - we`re a few pips above 50% fibo now.

Patryk

Originally Posted by Easy Trader

Patryk,

Cable is making a clear impulsive 5 down (could be a-b-c-d-e top 5 now), how do you see this according to delta?
Could be only an a-b-c correction?

One more thing,

Fx today is a race to the bottom. Although Europe is deep in the poo today developements in Japan would probably be much more powerfull driver for the dollar (weakness).

I can hardly imagine a strong domestic demand for Japneese bonds today as there are so many expences involved with disaster removal/rebuilding. A loss of confidence to the government because of the way thay run Fukushima crisis will not help placing bonds on the market too.
BOJ can`t print much more as this would push yields higher, and that would kill the budget. The only solution they have is dumping US treasuries. Rising yields will hurt Japan more than export margin squeeze (export is in a standstill anyway and god nows for how long it will be).

Edit: If Japan is forced to sell USTs guess who needs to buy them (print more)?

Patryk

Daily Chart Negative MACD Divergence Indicates GBP/USD Could Go Much Lower. Look for 1.5800 to be revisited.

Here is an interesting piece of information:

Someone Leak Something? | zero hedge

I still prefer bullish scenario as long as 1.5975 isn`t broken. All other currencies and especially commodities (weekly charts) suggest heavy dollar beating in the following week/weeks.

Bearish scenario:ITD6 top is also MTD11 and LTD5. I don`t like it because ITD5 bottom was much too late as for MTD in an uptrend, and probably ended with a truncation/tripple bottom. Of course my preferences cannot influence the market so I can easily be proven wrong with my bullish approach.

Patryk

Bullish Scenario: Retreat from 1.6343 ( high of 03/02/11) to 1.5976 ( low of 03/11/11) is considered an (a)- (b)- (c) correction with wave (a) completing at 1.6124, wave (b) at 1.6242, and wave (c) at 1.5976. Under a bullish count rise from 1.5976 is considered the fifth wave of advance from 1.5750 (1/25/11) with sub-wave wave (1) completing at 1.6198, sub-wave (2) at 1.5977, and sub-wave (3) currently unfolding. Sub-wave (3) is unfolding as an extension with wave [1] completing at 1.6130, wave [2] at 1.5981, wave [3] at 1.6400, and wave [4] possibly ending at 1.6091. Below 1.5981 invalidates bullish count.
Strategy: Enter long position at 1.6155 with stop at 1.6090. Price targets are: 1.6246 (50% Fib-retracement measuring from 1.6400 to 1.8091); 1.6282 (61.8% Fib-retracement measuring from 1.6400 to 1.8091); 1.6400 (100% Fib-retracement measuring from 1.6400 to 1.8091; 1.6400).

Bearish Scenario: Retreat from 1.6400 can extend below 1.5981. Under a bearish count rise from 1.5750 has completed at 1.6400 with wave (1) at 1.5990, wave (2) at 1.5821, wave (3) at 1.6343, wave (4) at 1.5976 and wave (5) possibly ending at 1.6400.
Strategy: Stand aside. Oversold conditions should bring recovery where a short entry can be sought.

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Does anyone see this pair still range bound of 1.60/6350?

GBP/USD Broke Trend line South. Cable may need to work off oversold condition with a retrace back to the 1.6158- 16252 neighborhood

Bullish Scenario: Retreat from 1.6343 ( high of 03/02/11) to 1.5976 ( low of 03/11/11) is considered an (a)- (b)- (c) correction with wave (a) completing at 1.6124, wave (b) at 1.6242, and wave (c) at 1.5976. Under a bullish count rise from 1.5976 is considered the fifth wave of advance from 1.5750 (1/25/11) with sub-wave wave (1) completing at 1.6198, sub-wave (2) at 1.5977, and sub-wave (3) currently unfolding. Sub-wave (3) is unfolding as an extension with wave [1] completing at 1.6130, wave [2] at 1.5981, wave [3] at 1.6400, and wave [4] possibly ending at 1.6007. Below 1.5981 invalidates bullish count.

Strategy: Enter long position at 1.6090 with stop at 1.6006. Price targets are: 1.6157 (38.2% Fib-retracement measuring from 1.6400 to 1.6007); 1.6282 (50% Fib-retracement measuring from 1.6400 to 1.6007); 1.6250 (61.8% Fib-retracement measuring from 1.6400 to 1.6007).

Bearish Scenario: Retreat from 1.6400 can extend below 1.5981. Under a bearish count rise from 1.5750 has completed at 1.6400 with wave (1) at 1.5990, wave (2) at 1.5821, wave (3) at 1.6343, wave (4) at 1.5976 and wave (5) ending at 1.6400.

Strategy: Stand Aside.