Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

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Originally Posted by karunakarp

I would like to see pullback towards 1.5880 for me to go long on this... There is a good possibility for another 200pips move to upwards considering resistance levels, you have mentioned, are cleared. Again this not a surety

im with you on that, i had resis at 1.5960 (weekly R2) which nicely bounced off of. i have supp on the 30 min 1.59 area where i would look for more longs.....
GL.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

GBP sure held up better against the dollar than EUR and AUD. Drop in 2-year Gilt supporting cable as well.

Look at the list of UK bonds and notice how the only the 2-year has gone up in yield and down in price.

Great call using moving averages. A simple yet effective strategy in which you are the "Master"

thanks also EUR/GBP seems to be going for its next leg down on daily, should continue to keep pressure on the EUR relative to the GBP.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello Patryk,
Thanks for sharing your Delta Analysis. I find it quite intriguing yet have not taken the time to research in any depth. I have noticed that traders use DA a lot with GBP/USD. Is there some special characteristic of this pair that lends itself to work with Delta Analysis better than other pairs?

Also SSI shows that retail traders are extremely short this pair which is bullish:


GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -2.18 as nearly 69% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.05 as 67% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.1% lower than yesterday and 45.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.2% higher than yesterday and 61.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.1% stronger than yesterday and 7.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

Hi Greg,

Every market has its own (often simmilar) delta pattern. I just happen to know/like/follow the pound.

Here is a hourly solution I`m following. It has 8 points repeating every four days. One must include every day (weekends,holidays also need to be counted). We start with a blue line, end with a red one. No.1 and No.8 points may invert - you get two points very close to the line.

here is the example (starting from 02.27):

1. no.1 bottom9.30 gmt - blue
2. no.(1)top (inverted)
3. no.2 bottom
4. no.3 top - yellow
5. no.4 bottom
6. no.5 top (asia high)
7. no.6 bottom - green
8. no.7 top
9. no.8 bottom (red)

rinse and repeat

without invertion we should go to a top no.1 tomorrow 9.30 gmt then a correction to no.2 (ussually 2-3 hours) and up to no.3.

edit: three more things :

1. every line is 9.30 gmt,
2. invertions are qiuck most of the time - 1-2 hours away from blue/red - this suggests we should go to no.1 without invertion today,
3. the most important moves happen often arround no.1 and no.8.
Patryk

In addition to what Patryk's has so generously shared with us, I would like to add a minor point for those who are interested in cycle points to consider.

The following time windows are often cycle points or intraday pivot highs/lows are made due to liquidity measures in the markets (big boys' playing to lower their transaction costs before or overlapping sessions etc.). The moon might be going round in circles, bank traders and hedgies are weighing up their order fill and transaction costs too

All time noted is GMT

1. 6.30-8.00, before 8am London open (Frankfurt open)
2. 8am to 10 or 10.30am, London morning
3. 10.30 - 12.30/13.00 avoid London lunchtime lull
4. 14.30-15.00, around NY open
5. 15.30-16.00

I noticed that sometimes there can be a significant move after 18.00/18.30, after NY lunch, but not always.

I can't seem to be able edit my posts. So will have to add an extra one.

The last time window in my last post is about London fixing.

Good luck, all.

F

Originally Posted by Franosh

In addition to what Patryk's has so generously shared with us, I would like to add a minor point for those who are interested in cycle points to consider.

The following time windows are often cycle points or intraday pivot highs/lows are made due to liquidity measures in the markets (big boys' playing to lower their transaction costs before or overlapping sessions etc.). The moon might be going round in circles, bank traders and hedgies are weighing up their order fill and transaction costs too

All time noted is GMT

1. 6.30-8.00, before 8am London open (Frankfurt open)
2. 8am to 10 or 10.30am, London morning
3. 10.30 - 12.30/13.00 avoid London lunchtime lull
4. 14.30-15.00, around NY open
5. 15.30-16.00

I noticed that sometimes there can be a significant move after 18.00/18.30, after NY lunch, but not always.

Good point - thanks

In addition:

1. No.1 and 8 most often invert in the following manner - bottom/top before London open => inverted point arround 9.30 gmt,
2. During strong movements no.2,4,7 often consume 1-2 hours whereas ussually they are much longer (approx. middle lines) - with the exception of no.2 which very often comes 2-3 hours past blue line regardless of the trend strength

Patryk

This logging out is soooo anoying - in order to edit post => Go Advanced => relog in => edit post

Patryk

Originally Posted by fazi

Hi Greg,

Every market has its own (often simmilar) delta pattern. I just happen to know/like/follow the pound.

Here is a hourly solution I`m following. It has 8 points repeating every four days. One must include every day (weekends,holidays also need to be counted). We start with a blue line, end with a red one. No.1 and No.8 points may invert - you get two points very close to the line.

here is the example (starting from 02.27):

1. no.1 bottom9.30 gmt - blue
2. no.(1)top (inverted)
3. no.2 bottom
4. no.3 top - yellow
5. no.4 bottom
6. no.5 top (asia high)
7. no.6 bottom - green
8. no.7 top
9. no.8 bottom (red)

rinse and repeat

without invertion we should go to a top no.1 tomorrow 9.30 gmt then a correction to no.2 (ussually 2-3 hours) and up to no.3.

edit: three more things :

1. every line is 9.30 gmt,
2. invertions are qiuck most of the time - 1-2 hours away from blue/red - this suggests we should go to no.1 without invertion today,
3. the most important moves happen often arround no.1 and no.8.
Patryk

Thanks for sharing Fazi. This is amazing the pattern, symmetry, and rhythm that the currency follows.

Hello Franosh. The London lunch is when "Pip and Run", my live trading webinar happens. I have noticed reversals at 7:00 AM ET /12:00 noon London time.

Thanks, Greg. Yes, that time window is good for fades. I should join your trading room for some fun.

fazi
Thanks very much for your posts and sharing your findings.
Id really like to explore this properly
Is there an indicator already written that plots the coloured line rotation or do you just add them manually?

Originally Posted by midge

fazi
Thanks very much for your posts and sharing your findings.
Id really like to explore this properly
Is there an indicator already written that plots the coloured line rotation or do you just add them manually?

HI,

That is my every mornig manual routine - a software would be quite difficult to compute as every year we get different pattern of hollidays -remember every single day must be counted.

Patryk

Previous Outlook :Sell limit near the level 1.5950 as a first entry level and near 1.6030 as a second one, stop loss 1.6060, to target 1.5850 - 1.5750 - 1.5640.

Comment on Previous Outlook : The pair achieved the first and second targets 90 + 190 pips.

Today’s Look : Prefer today to hold on the same short position, the pair bounced on the entry level again.




GBP-USD 2-Mar-2012 | Ahmed Azzam Analysis

Hi everyone,

hourly delta update

Price action over the last 24 gave me a chance to explain rather nasty nature of inversion time periods. According to delta logics price travels from the first to the last point following the schedule. Then Mr market has to decide if it wants to cotinue its routine or change its habbits. It may happen in three ways:

1. continuation ( no inversions) - on chart from red 8 bottom to blue 1 top - we still have an hour or so to break the NY high for this case to be valid,

2. continuation with a hickup (double inversion) -red 8 bottom => extra 8 top (NY high) => extra 1 bottom (current low) => blue 1 top (would have to be soon) => no.2 bottom within 2-3 hours and then up for the reminder of the day,

3. change (single inversion) - red 8 bottom => extra 8 (NY high)=> blue 1 bottom => no.2 top (within 2-3 hours) and down for the reminder of the day.

I think double and single inversion are the most probable. I do sincerely hate trading the inversions, but they often offer the best rides.

Anyway - ITD and MTD trend is up and we still have ITD6 top to come. Any dip is a good buy in my opinion.

Patryk

Charts from today's edition of the webinar Bulls vs. Bears @ The Trading Room 11:30 GMT Mon - Fri
Follow me on twitter: https://twitter.com/AlejandroDFX