Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by fazi

I`ve got the same thoughts - some fibs in addtion -61.8 off the august 2011 top is 1.6084, 61.8 off the may top is 1.6166. Previous up swings topped out exatly at 50% fibs from the said levels.

70.7% are 1.6211 and 1.63 respectively - there can be an overshot. Timing is really good for an important top.

Patryk

I`m short now from monthly cam h3 - this is hourly delta no.3 top - no.4 ussually comes a few hours after no.3, sometimes 1-2 hrs i ftrend is strong. So I wouldn`t rule out another run at stops towards the end of the day. monthly cam h4 is at 1.6232.

Anyway this is my sell zone.

Patryk

Originally Posted by Ikee

The fat lady is singing. Eeyodelayahdee..........

well done Sir

Patryk

Originally Posted by fazi

I`m short now from monthly cam h3

What is monthly cam h3?

Originally Posted by Howdyy

What is monthly cam h3?

monthly camarilla h3 line - go short line - but I don`t like to follow up.

Patryk

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Originally Posted by melbgirl

I believe in technical analysis above fundamentals but I have to note that with the Olympic games this summer the pound would be hard pressed to underperform. Essentially I will be a dip buyer but right now we are bouncing against strong resistance around 1.61 and with the French and Greek elections looming I think we'll see some corrections over the next weeks and if we'll see a full on risk off move then of course the pound could also be under pressure.

Having said that, I am long GBP/AUD aiming for a gap on the daily chart at 1.5841. We might have a "cup and handle" pattern there. I'm short GBP/JPY because of the negative RSI divergence though that trade is a bit underwater, but I am keeping it at this point.

Hey melgirl! I believe the same thing. When the UK needs to outlay a lot of cash, the pound mysteriously rises. If you are buying supplies and equipment for the Olympic games and attracting millions of tourists, a stronger currency is very beneficial.

Also, I am going on holiday as well from 4/24 to 5/1 which usually means GBP goes straight up when I am not in front of my computer!

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello Patryk! I agree that there is a lot of event risk that could send the dollar higher. However, the proverbial "crowd" thinks so too. Now in Texas, we have an old saying that, "even a blind squirrel can find a nut" so the crowd could be right but in most cases they are wrong and that is where SSI could come in handy:

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -3.82 as nearly 79% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -4.30 as 81% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.4% higher than yesterday and 13.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.8% lower than yesterday and 25.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.5% stronger than yesterday and 25.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

Those "squirrels" went hungry today!

Busted GBP/USD 4-Hour Head and Shoulders Pattern Triggering Short Squeeze Rally. Price Move above right shoulder triggering stops near 1.6000 area.

Originally Posted by fazi

I`m short now from monthly cam h3 - this is hourly delta no.3 top - no.4 ussually comes a few hours after no.3, sometimes 1-2 hrs i ftrend is strong. So I wouldn`t rule out another run at stops towards the end of the day. monthly cam h4 is at 1.6232.

Anyway this is my sell zone.

Patryk

I`m out of the short - no.3 top has been breached so we should drift higher towards the end of the day. I have a sell stop below 1.6084 (no.4 bottom) in case of a sudden death, but given still rising shorts I`m not comfortable with shorting yet. Large option barier has been tosted at 1.61 - I`ll try my luck higher when short side gets less crowded.

Patryk

Originally Posted by fazi

I`m out of the short - no.3 top has been breached so we should drift higher towards the end of the day. I have a sell stop below 1.6084 (no.4 bottom) in case of a sudden death, but given still rising shorts I`m not comfortable with shorting yet. Large option barier has been tosted at 1.61 - I`ll try my luck higher when short side gets less crowded.

Patryk

Funny. I was just going to post that I will join you Fazi on your short. I went short around 6105. Price bounced off the weekly R3 pivot (floor).

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Busted GBP/USD 4-Hour Head and Shoulders Pattern Triggering Short Squeeze Rally. Price Move above right shoulder triggering stops near 1.6000 area.

Yikes is a good word for that SSI level - we haven`t seen it for a while - 1.63 -1.65 seems reasonable

Patryk

gbpusd chart here.

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/tradi...ml#post1120353

Originally Posted by Howdyy

Funny. I was just going to post that I will join you Fazi on your short. I went short around 6105. Price bounced off the weekly R3 pivot (floor).

It is funny indeed. SSI is quite extreme here - could be the indication of top, or some stops need to be taken out. I trust my hourly 8 point rotation. More upside is likley once 9.30 GMT top (no.3) was breached. But it is friday and no.5 top may come as an early surprise (ussually late asia time) -that why my sell stop is in.

Patryk

Originally Posted by fazi

It is funny indeed. SSI is quite extreme here - could be the indication of top, or some stops need to be taken out. I trust my hourly 8 point rotation. More upside is likley once 9.30 GMT top (no.3) was breached. But it is friday and no.5 top may come as an early surprise (ussually late asia time) -that why my sell stop is in.

Patryk

Fazi, there is a FIB target at around 16170 minimum. That might be a better place for shorts for me, if it gets there. If it doesn't, well, never mind.

Originally Posted by Franosh

Fazi, there is a FIB target at around 16170 minimum. That might be a better place for shorts for me, if it gets there. If it doesn't, well, never mind.

Yes I know - possibly higher - here is a chart with an indicator called ganbox144 (360,720). Cable rarely makes moves bigger than 144 line without retracement, but sometimes it does.

edit: -wrong chart will repost soon

edit: ok - that is the one -144 line from 1.58 comes at 1.6163 - good place to short

Patryk