Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by fazi

John,

What do you think of super early LTD9 on SPX?

I can hardly imagine it, but you`ve got much more experience. Unless something unussual (timewise) happens, SPX is just about to pop and drop. This would make a case for Cable to set the top possibly - ITD12-ITD(12) or ITD12 - ITD (1) perhaps.

Patryk

Hi Patryk

SPX is a bit tricky - a month ago I was of the opinion that we had had the top on that, but the price action over the past week has messed up the shorter ITD count and at the moment it looks as though we need one last high. In my view it's too early fot LTD9. more likely we have had a very early inversion on the MTD12 and the final high will be MTD(12) with LTD8 and SLTD3.

There can be four MTD highs in a row with an inversion as the the inverted point is counted as an extra point - one of those little rules.

If we do head up for a final high on the S&P that would tie in with my delta on cable which is not due for another 10 days or so.

Originally Posted by JohnG_FX

Hi Patryk

SPX is a bit tricky - a month ago I was of the opinion that we had had the top on that, but the price action over the past week has messed up the shorter ITD count and at the moment it looks as though we need one last high. In my view it's too early fot LTD9. more likely we have had a very early inversion on the MTD12 and the final high will be MTD(12) with LTD8 and SLTD3.

There can be four MTD highs in a row with an inversion as the the inverted point is counted as an extra point - one of those little rules.

If we do head up for a final high on the S&P that would tie in with my delta on cable which is not due for another 10 days or so.

Now that makes sense - thank you John

Originally Posted by Arumi

Here it comes 1,6235

I just short the pair at 1,6220, consider to add more at 1,6280, sl 1,63100.
This pair is up for 10 days, and as the saying goes, what goes up must go down

I'm actually of the same mindset at the moment Arumi. Shorted just above you at 1.6224. We'll see what happens though...

Bigger picture possible count on cable

Attachment 125048

Originally Posted by meonia

I'm actually of the same mindset at the moment Arumi. Shorted just above you at 1.6224. We'll see what happens though...

Now looking for a fall around here back down towards 10 day SMA around 1.6080 to 1.6100 levels.

Originally Posted by stryker

Did a whole layout on SPX and DJ on eur.usd thread.. Expecting a bull trap on SPX..

GL..

Originally Posted by JohnG_FX

Hi Patryk

SPX is a bit tricky - a month ago I was of the opinion that we had had the top on that, but the price action over the past week has messed up the shorter ITD count and at the moment it looks as though we need one last high. In my view it's too early fot LTD9. more likely we have had a very early inversion on the MTD12 and the final high will be MTD(12) with LTD8 and SLTD3.

There can be four MTD highs in a row with an inversion as the the inverted point is counted as an extra point - one of those little rules.

If we do head up for a final high on the S&P that would tie in with my delta on cable which is not due for another 10 days or so.

This is good stuff guys please keep sharing. I will copy your posts to the http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/globa...ml#post1128393 section - It would be great if you could help out by posting your stuff there too going forward.

Originally Posted by Franosh

Current cable high at 16163 is right at the upper range of one of my range models for this month's high. It could go down from here, but price action just doesn't seem that bearish. Above that level, this week's range high is at 16192 and the upper range of weekly is 16232 and higher end of the monthly range top is at 16257. On 15m cable is tracing very lathargic 3-wave nearly horizontal moves. That's why I would rather give it the benefit of the doubt and wait for higher levels come in. If it really breaks from here, there is always retracement.

I shorted it from 16255, will see if this high can hold, if not, I will be willing to add.

Originally Posted by stryker

Did a whole layout on SPX and DJ on eur.usd thread.. Expecting a bull trap on SPX..

GL..

According to Bloomberg this is the 10th day with GBP gains and the best winning streak since June 1992 - no wonder that people are looking for a reversal. The FXCM SSI index tells us that there are 6 times more traders being short than long. This tells us that we can continue to trade higher.

As the SSI is so strong please read this http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/educati...ders_Make.html

Originally Posted by meonia

Attachment 125048

Now looking for a fall around here back down towards 10 day SMA around 1.6080 to 1.6100 levels.

Closed out for the weekend at 1.6230. At the moment I suspect looking at early narrow price action that someone pressed the button on their auto GBPUSD computer buying. I now see support around 1.6218/1.6226 and likely a move onward to 1.6280/1.6310 levels before I sell again.
Having said all that though, Monday is the last day of the month and perhaps pre sell in May and go away... ;-)

Originally Posted by Franosh

I shorted it from 16255, will see if this high can hold, if not, I will be willing to add.

offers - 1.628, 1,63

Should we fail to top out arround yearlly camarilla h4 (1.625) I`m beggining to think of the following scenario: Sentiment remains stubbornly in favour of the bulls although the top is arround the corner. Perhaps Cable needs to break the first sloping TL (1.633) and encourage breakout traders to take the long shot, and top out at the higher TL (2009-2011 tops). It also is 0.886 retracement off the 2011 top. This would be a perfect bearish Bat harmonic pattern: AB top at 50%, CD top at 88.6%, CD=1.27AB. - just thinking aloud...

Patryk

Originally Posted by fazi

offers - 1.628, 1,63

Should we fail to top out arround yearlly camarilla h4 (1.625) I`m beggining to think of the following scenario: Sentiment remains stubbornly in favour of the bulls although the top is arround the corner. Perhaps Cable needs to break the first sloping TL (1.633) and encourage breakout traders to take the long shot, and top out at the higher TL (2009-2011 tops). It also is 0.886 retracement off the 2011 top. This would be a perfect bearish Bat harmonic pattern: AB top at 50%, CD top at 88.6%, CD=1.27AB. - just thinking aloud...

Patryk

Thanks, Patryk. I have 6280 on the radar too, as said in an earlier post. At the moment it's stalling at an energy point, a small trendline is not that far away above.

I tend to look at USDOLLAR chart with some resevations, but it is worth noting : two equal swings, 61.8% fib (feb.-march rally) plus a slightly overshot TL

8h chart

edit: wow! what a messy upload - I guess you have to look at your own charts or trust my word

Originally Posted by meonia

Closed out for the weekend at 1.6230. At the moment I suspect looking at early narrow price action that someone pressed the button on their auto GBPUSD computer buying. I now see support around 1.6218/1.6226 and likely a move onward to 1.6280/1.6310 levels before I sell again.
Having said all that though, Monday is the last day of the month and perhaps pre sell in May and go away... ;-)

I just came back from cinema, The Avengers is a pretty good flick to begin our summer but not the GBP.
High levels of consumer debt / bankruptcy, demographic crisis, housing market, dropping in GDP and so on but GBP is still going up.
The Delta book is so terrible wrong this time, in which the period from 21.4 to 27.4 actually is a big rally for GU not a big drop.
I still hold my position, looking to add at 1,6280. In case the pair drop lower aiming for the first target 1,6150; and tend to move sl to break even as soon as possible

Originally Posted by Arumi

I just came back from cinema, The Avengers is a pretty good flick to begin our summer but not the GBP.
High levels of consumer debt / bankruptcy, demographic crisis, housing market, dropping in GDP and so on but GBP is still going up.
The Delta book is so terrible wrong this time, in which the period from 21.4 to 27.4 actually is a big rally for GU not a big drop.
I still hold my position, looking to add at 1,6280. In case the pair drop lower aiming for the first target 1,6150; and tend to move sl to break even as soon as possible

I wonder which rotation you are using. On my charts there is MTD and ITD inversion time period now so suprising things may happen now.

UK banks also have to sell foreign assets in order to present ECB a collateral (LTROs)

Also there was a talk of a quite strong MA relateted demand for the Sterling - Asia goes shopping this year

And finally SNB has been spotted diversifying its reserve portofolio.

Patryk

A rallyette from 1.6154 seems to be in the final stages of the impulsive move, which as a whole (from 16154) appears to be the 5th from 1.6079.

Patryk