Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Howdyy

Thanks for your comment. I will not question your analysis any more.

Hi Howdy - It wasn't meant to be dismissive.

It's absolutely fine to question my analysis - that's how I got to the level of knowledge on delta I'm at now. I didn't agree with lot of what was out there and just became self sufficient in my own analysis. Delta/Matrix or whatever you want to call it is as much art as it is science. But it needs the human interpretation to understand the finer points, if that wasn't so then the banks and brokers would have got some computer whizz programmers to come up with algos that could trade it, they haven't managed that yet.

I'm not saying my system is 100% - I know it's not. Some years it's like having second sight, other years it just gets really sloppy - QE and intervention really mess up the natural cycles. I've been using Delta for 8 years now and I'm still tweaking it

Originally Posted by Howdyy

Thanks for your comment. I will not question your analysis any more.

However I will add JohnG, it was your MTD solution I deleted from my computer.

I wasn't aware that I had given them to you. Time to restrict my blog access I think ! Perhaps you should try doing your own MTD, LTD and SLTD cycles. as without those you can't get a bigger picture view


Edit : If you are using a 32 lunar month rotation then there is no way my MTD cycles are going to work on your system. It's like you now have 63 hours in a day and I have 24. It goes without saying that my longer cycles are not going to fit in with your count. They would need to be analysed and re calculated using your parameters. Square peg, round hole.

Originally Posted by JohnG_FX

I wasn't aware that I had given them to you. Time to restrict my blog access I think ! Perhaps you should try doing your own MTD, LTD and SLTD cycles. as without those you can't get a bigger picture view


Edit : If you are using a 32 lunar month rotation then there is no way my MTD cycles are going to work on your system. It's like you now have 63 hours in a day and I have 24. It goes without saying that my longer cycles are not going to fit in with your count. They would need to be analysed and re calculated using your parameters. Square peg, round hole.

MTD is 96 lunar months. 12 lunar months (your MTD) x 8 = 96.
ITD is 4 lunar months (your ITD) x 8 = 32
Those are the time frames to use if you wish to eliminate inversions.
If you would just take some time to look into it you will understand.

Originally Posted by Howdyy

MTD is 96 lunar months. 12 lunar months (your MTD) x 8 = 96.
ITD is 4 lunar months (your ITD) x 8 = 32
Those are the time frames to use if you wish to eliminate inversions.
If you would just take some time to look into it you will understand.

Hello again Howdyy

I understand what you are saying but for me it doesn't work.

You are saying you use a 32 LM time frame on the ITD. yet you are counting with 15 points that start and end every 4 lunar months so it's not a 32 LM cycle unless you have 120 ITD points on each cycle or alternatively your 15 points span those 32 months in which case you have on average 1 point every 2.133 months

You have not calculated any solutions for the higher time frames without which you can't know if there is an inversion or not. How many ITD high or low points can you have between two MTD points on your system ? same for the LTD and SLTD cycles.

You need to go back over at least 10 years (preferably longer) of data and calculate each ITD, MTD and LTD point. Manually count the trading days for each point from the start of that cycle using the first full moon date until the end of that cycle. ( in my case it's 4 lunar months on the ITD, yours will be 32) Take all that data and calculate the mean for each point together with the standard deviation from the mean. When you have that then you begin to have a working system and can try to predict when the future points will arrive. Most people who dabble with this system are always looking for the shortcut to avoid doing all the work that's entailed - there isn't one.

I honestly wish you well in your endeavours but I'll stick with my own work for now.

Let's agree to disagree and leave it there before we get into trouble for clogging up this thread with all these secret codes

Sentiment is bearish yet cable rises again for 2nd week?
You have to believe that market is being manipulated by big boys?

Originally Posted by trexy123

Sentiment is bearish yet cable rises again for 2nd week?
You have to believe that market is being manipulated by big boys?

Not sure what you are looking at with that statement. 8 out of 10 traders are short the GBP/USD. Shorts are mandatory buyers at some point while longs are mandatory sellers. Given that, one can reason that there is more latent buying power than selling.

With the balance so far off what happens is shorts are driving the market higher by themselves. As the price moves up a bit some shorts cover by buying. This raises prices a bit more so that more shorts cover raising prices further. As it climbs higher shorts re-enter their shorts. This cycle continues until the majority give up and the balance trends toward equality.

I love to blame "they" (as in "they" are manipulating again!) when a trade goes against me but, truth is, we are "they".

For easy access I put SWFX and ONANDA positioning data in the footer of my web page.

I'm actually close to entering a short in GBP/USD myself, but not yet. 6140 was my first short point but never got a good signal so 6400 is next level to watch. Here's the chart I'm going off of: (big chart)
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0427124h.png

Small chart:

Considering that USD will find solid supp into 9770ish, expecting 6305-10 on gu to top out for a move lower..
6195-00 comes in as a supp with more lined lower at 6140...
GU 2 hrs and ascending wedge play is on and suggesting 6300-05 to top off..

GL...

My entire 32 LM Delta solution posted here:

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/tradi...-thread-2.html (GBP/USD Delta Phenomenon trading thread)

Originally Posted by stryker

I thought u have only GOLD on your mind... left something for you on the SNP on the eur.usd thread..

GL..

No, I usually have USDCAD on my mind. Been so for a few years, and is actually what I do best. One of my duties is to hedge that and not screw up. Sadly, Dailyfx twice deleted the USDCAD thread (which was one of the originals) and some good ppl went elsewhere, a long time ago now. This was long before Gregory ingratiated us with his presence here… it probably would have gone better if Gregory had been here back then.

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

No, I usually have USDCAD on my mind. Been so for a few years, and is actually what I do best. One of my duties is to hedge that and not screw up. Sadly, Dailyfx twice deleted the USDCAD thread (which was one of the originals) and some good ppl went elsewhere, a long time ago now. This was long before Gregory ingratiated us with his presence here… it probably would have gone better if Gregory had been here back then.

lol......... I hear ya.. Though have a question for you.. any particular reason why u trade USDCAD.. Never been a big fan of this pair. but also looking to add good pairs if they behave well on tech play.........

GL..

Originally Posted by stryker

Considering that USD will find solid supp into 9770ish, expecting 6305-10 on gu to top out for a move lower..
6195-00 comes in as a supp with more lined lower at 6140...
GU 2 hrs and ascending wedge play is on and suggesting 6300-05 to top off..

GL...

Only updating the 2 hrs chart here since it is in play for now.. 6242-44 supp but prime ribs to around 6195-6200 lvls..

GL..

Charts from today's edition of the webinar Bulls vs. Bears @ The Trading Room 10:30 GMT (11:30 UK time or 06:30 EST Mon - Fri)

Recorded version
Bulls vs Bears - The spread Betting Morning Update April 30 - 2012 | DailyFX: Bulls vs Bears on Blip

QA session
QA Bulls vs bears spread betting market update april 30 2012on DailyFX Live Trading Room - live streaming video powered by Livestream

Did a whole USD count on the eur.usd section. Whereby expecting 3241-43 on euro to hold for a move lower. similarly expecting 6255-58 to hold on gu for a move lower..
anyways... not expecting too much going into NA session for possibly it'll be a less vol for it been a labor day off 2moro...

GL..

Originally Posted by stryker

Did a whole USD count on the eur.usd section. Whereby expecting 3241-43 on euro to hold for a move lower. similarly expecting 6255-58 to hold on gu for a move lower..
anyways... not expecting too much going into NA session for possibly it'll be a less vol for it been a labor day off 2moro...

GL..

Just to add - timewise we`re going down from no.8 top to no.1 bottom tomorrow (9.30gmt), unless there is an inversion, which can happen because of the holiday session tomorrow.

I`m checking Oanda`s sentiment indicator and retailers buy this dip - there is a pretty good chance a topping has begun. Is it the top? A little too early probably, but 0.707 fib and yearly cam h4 are good levels to drop from.

There could still be a run on long term sloping TLs (1.633 and 1.65).

Geppy could have formed a tripple top, which suprised me a little bit.


edit: It looks like eurgbp doesn`t want to close the month below kumo support (.8167) - interesting, especially with Goldman`s recomendation to sell the cross at .822
Patryk

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

Charts from today's edition of the webinar Bulls vs. Bears @ The Trading Room 10:30 GMT (11:30 UK time or 06:30 EST Mon - Fri)

Recorded version
Bulls vs Bears - The spread Betting Morning Update April 30 - 2012 | DailyFX: Bulls vs Bears on Blip

QA session
QA Bulls vs bears spread betting market update april 30 2012on DailyFX Live Trading Room - live streaming video powered by Livestream

We trade lower as expected - we probably continue to drop after the London close.