Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

from RANsqawk: BOE has completed 325B QE buying - and now what?

Originally Posted by Howdyy

I agree the number is a joke, but it moves markets. We trade currencies. Will you avoid trading Friday because the number is unreliable? Or will you trade because the market is moving regardless of the reason for it?

I can`t find the tweet (ZH), but april avg seasonal adj. is ca. 30k, whereas march avg seasonal adj. is ca. 800k+ - the number could be seroiusly disappointing, but theese BLS people surely know how to deal with statistics - really tough call here

Originally Posted by fazi

thanks Greg - good to see you back

contrary to many fake H&S patterns occurring recently this one looks really good - it is symetrical and the right shoulder has marginally broken the left shoulder bottom - lets see how it plays out.

Patryk

Thanks Patryk. The rest did me good! I have a H&S projection target to 1374.20. Could we get a similar drop in GBP/USD?

Cable looks like uppish from here, it really struggled and failed to break below the low of 27/04. Indicators-wise, this week's slow grind seems to have work off a lot of overbought status. Wedge overshoots can always shoot even higher if it doesn't quickly break back into and below the wedge range. It doesn't have to be a new high, but might be a deep retracement back to near the high.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Thanks Patryk. The rest did me good! I have a H&S projection target to 1374.20. Could we get a similar drop in GBP/USD?

timewise - sp500 below aprl the 23rd low confirms LTD/SLTD top - this could be an early suggestion that Cable will follow the similiar path and LTD/SLTD top is already in place.

Last week we discussed this topic with JohnGFX -Cable`s long term time structure suggests a drop till early summer, correction towards august and SLTD bottom in the autumn.

Patryk

Originally Posted by Franosh

Cable looks like uppish from here, it really struggled and failed to break below the low of 27/04. Indicators-wise, this week's slow grind seems to have work off a lot of overbought status. Wedge overshoots can always shoot even higher if it doesn't quickly break back into and below the wedge range. It doesn't have to be a new high, but might be a deep retracement back to near the high.

notorious double-topper??

My 32 LM Delta has a low due May 5/6 with the next high due about May 11. Fib retracement between the last 2 turn points shows support at the .618 level, about 6162. I am looking to buy on a move higher that shows up on the daily candle. If NFP causes a drop in price, there may be a buying opportunity next week.

Originally Posted by fazi

hi Howdyy,

Why You Shouldn't Trust Tomorrow's BLS Number | ZeroHedge

whatever..

Patryk

Patryk;

It's always been that way. It is only a survey.

Good Luck.

This position ratio chart shows that 75% of these retail traders are still short.

Originally Posted by fazi

from RANsqawk: BOE has completed 325B QE buying - and now what?

how do you know its QE buying?

Originally Posted by stryker

lol......... I hear ya.. Though have a question for you.. any particular reason why u trade USDCAD.. Never been a big fan of this pair. but also looking to add good pairs if they behave well on tech play.........

GL..

I do usdcad because hedging that is part of my job, such as it is...lol. Not sure how well behaved usdcad is on technicals because hedging is a long-term proposition not day trading. USDCAD tends to make quick big moves between lengthy periods of slow consolidation. Honestly I have high success in this pair for years, which is why I have my job now instead of older brother, lol. I think the pair moves logically based on fundies + sentiment, and it's not important enough for Uncle Ben or Tim to manipulate so I say try it

Originally Posted by trexy123

how do you know its QE buying?

Hi trexy123 - because they said so - current QE target of 325B has been reached so BOE cancellled may the 7th guilt auction (purchase)

Patryk

hi all

for me now best level to entry short..just get ready

GBP/USD


GBP/USD still remains in a down trend and we did not get a reversal on the break above 1.6215 - this was not so surprising given yesterday's bad ISM outcome. Price keeps in trading lower and a break under 1.6150 will get momentum going.

Today's key level is 1.6225 but we can also use 1.6250 as key level to give price some space to move. This down trend is very dependent on today's outcome US NFP.

hi everyone,

hourly delta - we probably have no.8 bottom (9.30) and no.(8) inverted top - this suggests a down move towards end of the day - but this is NFP friday so things may unfold differently

edit: 1.6075 or 1.6079 is the bullish line in the sand from ITD perspective - below we have LTD/SLTD top in place.

edit2: hourly no.8 apparently is late (1.6162) -dip below and we have an inversion

Patryk