Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

Hourly momentum too is showing 'better than yesterday' readings but still -ve none the less. RSI showing the divergence you mention but price has already taken a dip through the daily trendline at .9750. Interestingly that dip didn't get the same reaction as when price jumped through it last Friday so, erm, I dunno if this is going to play out. Hmmmm ...

Biggie move in the offing ...

Nothing on the docket today so we may just hang about until tomorrow's BoE mins release

Originally Posted by Black.day

Biggie move in the offing ...

Say the hourly Bolli's which are getting a good ol' squeeze.

Originally Posted by Black.day

Short taken here at .9787 SL 1.9891

Slight revision to this trade ... I'm going to remove my SL and instead set another short order at .9891 SL above the recent high. The thinking behind this lies in the expectation that sentiment as exhibited by price action seems somewhat depressed for Sterling up towards the 2. level and it's much harder for me to envisage Cable holding above here than it is for it to trade lower. That's the thinking but of course the US $ will have the ultimate say in this.

Over the weekend I had it all figured out: No Cable trades until after the BoE's minutes are released on Wednesday. However, armed with a slice of crispy toast and my favourite marmalade (Robertson's Orange golden Shred) I've somehow managed to succumb to one of those moments where switching on the monitors and seeing something that I didn't expect, at least until later and preferably after my second slice, grabbed me as being a fantastic opportunity to get into a trade and score straight off the bat. That moment has turned into something a 'mare and I begining to wish I'd had cornflakes instead.

So, this morning price action (shown on the charts) certainly appeared to offer a fair bet that Cable was imminently about to head south having failed to bounce convincingly from the overnight test of the trendline (shown in red) and so exhibiting weak characteristics and looking a bit lame. Unfortunately for my short trade, what I missed was the .764 retracement level which proved too good an opportunity for Sterling bulls to lash back and push price all the way back to yesterday's break point (AKA watching it go wrong for 9 solid hours).

Still, all is not lost as Cable has yet to overcome yesterday's high which continues to sit pretty at the .382 level, unflustered by what's been going at prices below it ... that is until tomorrow when the Old Lady spils the beans on the last IR rate meeting, on would suspect. Anyhow, as unhappy as I feel about this trade at least I'm not John Arne Risse.

Well it faltered at 1.9960/70 and is heading south again. A break of 1.9750 will make me happy.

Steep drop back towards yesterday's lows as fib levels fail to support price above here. One other to watch out for today is USDCHF @ 1.0134 as a break here would be quite bullish for this pair intraday. So given the -ve correlation between the two then further downside would likely to occur with Cable.

Originally Posted by Black.day

Steep drop back towards yesterday's lows as fib levels fail to support price above here. One other to watch out for today is USDCHF @ 1.0134 as a break here would be quite bullish for this pair intraday. So given the -ve correlation between the two then further downside would likely to occur with Cable.

Zoom out a a bit more on the hourlies, and OMG an inverse -&S
Scary times for shorting cable, I say take your profit and run with it. Call me paranoid but cable never fails to deceive especially when it's so vulnerable.

Originally Posted by Black.day

Here's how the inverse -&S appears to be playing itself out this morning. Right on cue, it's hit resistance at the neckline. I've added a fib fan to the neckline for levels of support.

Got that + Cable remains above the descending trendline, now support. One thing though, lower tops seen every day this week. To balance the lower tops, it's yet to break last weeks low.

Cable retraced all of the BoE's mortgage bailout plan but failed to break through yesterday's low. Where next? Hmmm ...

All out at .9713, on the trendline and in front of retrail sales at 9:30

Retail sales coming in slight weaker than expected but last months figure was revised up, neutralising the drop. Nice bounce off the trendline and Cable continues to hold above there.

These levels look interesting to trade. Hourlies are O/S on my chart so I'm cautious of a possible rebound towards .9850-ish.

The daily chart shows the above hourly t'lines in a better perspective.