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07-22-2008, 12:18 AM #4336
gd work man! salute!
Originally Posted by BH-Eurofighter
yr prediction was so accurate esp intraday...although i didnt fol, hehe.
cos i was looking at john major turn day since last wed & waiting see
his 19400 come back.
surprise he now sudden change to upside break..
but this is how it shd be, fast to anticipate to mkt change..
may i ask yr view for today?
07-22-2008, 12:34 AM #4337
so does this mean we won't be seeing 1.9400 in the next three weeks?
Originally Posted by JohnG_FX
07-22-2008, 12:43 AM #4338
You count cmellon is acceptable under the rules and guidelines, although I don't prefer that particular count because it has itself a double zig-zag for your second wave A decline ending at 9905. Wave A should have 3 waves or 5 waves. When wave A has 5 waves they should not overlap. Your second wave A has 5 waves, but they overlap. If you count a lower timeframe, you'll see that your second wave A counts more like 5-3-5-3-5 internally, a double zig-zag. True, a double zig-zag has 3 internal waves. But when you 'flatten' the move, e.g., ignore degree of trend and just count total waves, it counts 5 overlapping, so it is not likely an A wave. Neither is it a C-wave, which has either 5 waves not overlapping (impulse), or 5 waves overlapping -only- when it is an ending diagonal triangle. It is a considerable stretch to say that your second wave A decline is an overlapping triangle - because the wave v overthrow is considerable - but it is arguable. All of this discussion is mainly why I counted a triple zig-zag overall on a previous chart, however, that is also arguable until there is more price action to clarify.
Now, your second set of waves B rally C decline... there is an alternate interpretation possible, depending on how you count the lower time frame. It could be an A-B-C rally (since the bottom of wave A was not broken), with your wave 3 actually the wave C. A decline into the wave B top at 9987 would suggest - but not confirm under the rules - that the move up is some kind of correction. A move below 9975 would do further significant damage, while a move below 9929 would confirm your labeled 1-2-3 as an a-b-c within the larger a-b-c. This interpretation is unlikely - but - until we have a break of 2.0040, and best 2.0070, then we cannot positively confirm that the total correction (call it a double or triple or whatever you like, it appears to be 7 waves) is over. Even then - because it is possible to count into the top at 2.0158 as an A-B-C as I posted before, the bottom of this correction could simply be "A or 1". You just don't know yet.
And this is something that EW traders have to learn and get comfortable with. EW is *never* certain. It indicates *probabilities only* that a certain move is likely. It is true that sometimes the probability can -appear- so close to 100% that it feels silly to consider alternatives. But every moment in the market is unique and it is a serious mistake to ever think you are sure what is going to happen next. Fortunately, you don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to consistently make money.
As Mark Douglas ("Trading in the Zone") put so eloquently: "You don't need to know what the market is going to do next; you only need to know what you will do."
I wish I had time to make a bar-by-bar set of slides for how I traded in this chop, revealing each bar sequentially. I mostly took small losses trying to position for the larger move. If I have time this weekend I will try to show all the logic during the move so that karensi and others can follow.
For now all I can show is my latest thinking. Here it is the 1 hour chart as I saw it when I pulled the trigger on this long, based on what appeared to me to be a -possible- 1-2, 1-2 move. The resulting 3rd-of-3rd not long after my entry is suggestive that view. Note that a 3rd-of-3rd-of-3rd is the move to never miss, they are even stronger, much like the 5th wave extension we had the week before last. Here is also a 15 min chart which shows the internal move. I didn't look at that until now, but it basically supports what I believed from looking at the 1 hr.
Also, keep in mind that nearly all EW traders use some type of oscillator, e.g., RSI, momentum, etc. Momentum will often diverge in a 5th wave, so double- and triple-divergences can help provided more insight into a wave count and the potential for a reversal. My momentum indicators are pointed for a move above 2.0158 - but again - that doesn't mean it will happen, it only means the pressure -appears- to be up for the moment.
If my stop gets nicked now, I'll be out 8 pips, down from 55 pips when I first placed the trade. Not a problem.
Sorry for the long post. Just keep in mind the bullish case is not out of the woods yet.
p.s. Note that my first i-v wave rally appears to have have iv overlap wave i. Most people consider this a breach of the rules, and given my discussion above, it certainly appears so. However, I have found that a *slight* overlap of wave 1 is permissible. Some say up to 38% of wave 1 is okay, though I would consider that a bit much. Consider in your case cmellon that your second wave A has much more overlap than that, and that is why I prefer a slightly different interpretation. In any case, the implication is for a rally, which we now have. Whether it continues, is anybody's guess.
Last edited by hardknocklife; 07-22-2008 at 12:50 AM.
07-22-2008, 01:43 AM #4339
I *may* add on
I may add on 0027, stop 30 to 50 pips below.
*small* chance this is 3rd-of-3rd short-covering rally, *could* be a relentless ascent from here.
could also be a minor wave v, which falls back to this area or lower before one more push
07-22-2008, 02:24 AM #4340
Thx for the analysis. I am flat atm, waiting for clear market direction.
07-22-2008, 02:24 AM #4341
Hardknocklife, I know that would be a lot of work to do that. You seem very comfortable with EW. What did you use to learn it?
07-22-2008, 02:39 AM #4342
1.9985 - 2.0 is weekly pivot now.
1.9944 is major support-
This may hold for long position.
But we have to wait to see that.
It is possible to break down further 1.9850.
This could be good support because that is 200 EMA.
Now we have to wait on bullish sign and than go long (but supports
must hold for this).
Targets 2.0070 and 2.0120
p.s. I will put one (or three of small size) long order now (this is a bit risky) and than long orders
of the same size every 25 pips below (three times). If
support at 1.9940 brokes than I hedge.
p.s.2. additional small size long (buy stop) order at 2.0040
Last edited by BH-Eurofighter; 07-22-2008 at 02:51 AM.
07-22-2008, 03:00 AM #4343
At 8.45 GMT - speach of Bank Of England governor.
If targets will reach before of that I think its better to go OUT of trades than
If until than we will be enough in profit and someone want to be in trade,
than maybe is better to put stopp losses on entry levels.
Last edited by BH-Eurofighter; 07-22-2008 at 03:04 AM.
07-22-2008, 03:04 AM #4344
Originally Posted by tacamonchi
tacamonchi, to be honest I don't know. At the moment I'm trading the ITD's and currently the direction is up,
Whether we break 2.0158 will show us if the MTD12 did in fact invert or not. If/when we get up to 2.0128/30 I will certainly be looking for shorts with a stop and reverse above 2.0158 and then let the market show me which way it's going.
The price action is not clear to me on the larger time frames but that doesn't mean you can't trade the smaller swings until the picture becomes clear again.
Last edited by JohnG_FX; 07-22-2008 at 03:19 AM.
07-22-2008, 03:09 AM #4345
but why u think it will break down to 19850 when u so bullish & long..
Originally Posted by BH-Eurofighter
sori to ask. tks
07-22-2008, 03:15 AM #4346
Situation in US bank sector will move the dollar close to the record trading level against the euro. But pullbck is also possible.
I expect 1.6 for eurusd today or tomorrow.
Trading range 1.5820 to 1.6060
Last edited by BH-Eurofighter; 07-22-2008 at 03:29 AM.
07-22-2008, 03:19 AM #4347
Pullback is just possible. Now is impossible to predict 100% clear.
Originally Posted by Panda Eyes
Small directions depend on GBP events today and this week.
But pressure is up. So we need strategy how to handle that.
If pullback doesnt happened than we loose potential profit if we
will not go long now. But we have to know for risk and have strategy
to buy low if this happened.
Other strategy is to wait and to buy low.
p.s. everyone trade this on his own risk. This is just my idea
07-22-2008, 03:29 AM #4348
Order "Elliott Wave Principle" by Frost and Prechter from Elliott Wave International - Elliott Wave Dot Net. Best to get it straight from the horse's mouth. Just remember - it takes time - and keep it simple. Lots of other great resources there.
Originally Posted by karensi
Scalped 20 pips on the pullback and latest rally and did not take the 0027 buy. Careful with it if you did, re: my warning about a wave 5 terminal move.
Five waves up now. This is either the top of wave C, in which case we are headed down for a while, or, this is a 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 and there is about to be a large buying pressure pivot ~9985 as BH points out. Also could be wave 3, now minor setback in wave 4 above the pivot (esp above 9976), then bigger advance.
Hangs in the balance. Good luck all, I am headed to bed.
07-22-2008, 04:00 AM #4349
One of new brokers want from me VAC.
I make small account at this broker for experiments.
When I ask him what the VAC is they can not answer me, or dont want
to do this but
I cant make withdrawals without this.
Maybe enyone know what this means VAC ?
It is impossible how BIG differences are between brokers.
I have very small acount there but Now I will trade this account manually until account
became BIG and hope that this broker will enjoy Until than I will find somevhere what
Last edited by BH-Eurofighter; 07-22-2008 at 04:07 AM.
07-22-2008, 04:13 AM #4350