Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Rix

OOoo are we gona drop below 198...nail biting time...

I'm on the edge of my seat too. Waiting to see if this dollar rally is the real thing or merely a run to support before momentum gives out.

We had some interesting data this morning from the UK (25-year low in CBI retail sales and a new low in mortgage approvals - not looking good for the consumer) and US (consumer confidence ticks higher and housing inflation isn't as bad as expected). However, none of that seemed to be the catalyst for this move; and I wouldn't expect it to be considering its usual market-moving capabilities.

If this is working up to be a major dollar move, then we could be in for some really great breakouts (GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD). On the other hand, this may be a great entry for reversals on steady range. It seems the best way to play this is to straddle the dollar (one position looking for a breakout and another for a range) and set risk/reward such that the prevailing direction provides a profit in the end.

Originally Posted by lovelyforex

trying below 1.9800 first and need close below 1.9830 today for 1.9680 soon

hope this helps.But please dont greedy and dicipline.now i sit a side.after doned

Got into a long position at 1.9825 and another at 1.9800. Let's hope for an upmove. TP 1.9870.

I don't think GBP will finish below 1.98 b/c this is a pretty strong support level. But I guess only time will tell.

Originally Posted by Longhorn

Got into a long position at 1.9825 and another at 1.9800. Let's hope for an upmove. TP 1.9870.

I don't think GBP will finish below 1.98 b/c this is a pretty strong support level. But I guess only time will tell.

hmm..

IF UP just a rectrace 35% then must be resume the down trend not today but his week...

Originally Posted by Longhorn

Got into a long position at 1.9825 and another at 1.9800. Let's hope for an upmove. TP 1.9870.

I don't think GBP will finish below 1.98 b/c this is a pretty strong support level. But I guess only time will tell.

where do you plce yr S/L please??

Originally Posted by grasshopper860

where do you plce yr S/L please??

Grasshopper

I have seen you doing the same thing on the EU thread and may i suggest you find a method or system that works for YOU. Learn it trade it and make your own decisions because until you do you will never be a successful trader but only a follower of others.

Originally Posted by grasshopper860

I have my own trading but this is what is making this forum great you listen to others ( most are more advanced from my self) and I think and do my own way.

well I guess there is nothing wrong in this I am not rude to any one.
on the contrary I find very good help.

Hi Grasshopper, why don't you throw your opinions into the forum? forget about not being as experienced as some, the more views and opinions on here increase the chances for a more informative read. you might get some good feedback in relation to your trading style.

there is nothing wrong with you posting as you currently do, but i for one am always interested in hearing views of others.

took a meagre 25 pip scalp from the trip down. could've/shoud've/would've (typical) been more but i was afraid of getting stung on a sharp retracement. out of trades at moment.

Cheers
Paul

Originally Posted by se1paul

Hi Grasshopper, why don't you throw your opinions into the forum? forget about not being as experienced as some, the more views and opinions on here increase the chances for a more informative read. you might get some good feedback in relation to your trading style.

there is nothing wrong with you posting as you currently do, but i for one am always interested in hearing views of others.

took a meagre 25 pip scalp from the trip down. could've/shoud've/would've (typical) been more but i was afraid of getting stung on a sharp retracement. out of trades at moment.

Cheers
Paul

I agree, it's great hearing everyone's views on here. I wish I had posted something along the lines of what I mentioned in my analyst pick this morning (DailyFX Roundtable), but unfortunately I didn't, nor did I trade it. I doubt this bearish leg is over yet, and while we could see the pair recover slightly overnight, I think it'll target at least the July lows/61.8% fib of 1.9408-2.0152 at 1.9695.

I have a question.Are there specific time frames in which you guys trade or do you trade at random according to readings?Second question.Do you think that the GBP will be bearish for the rest of the week.

Take it easy on Grashopper.I am sure all had to start somewhere.At least he has the b..ls to ask.I am sure that I will also in the future ask a lot of questions that might sound stupid to some but might be helpfull to me and others.This is a challenging field and I enjoy it more than anything else to trade.To make a success I would have to rely on experts that has been in trading for very long.Thanks to the guys that are willing to help

Originally Posted by Terri Belkas

I agree, it's great hearing everyone's views on here. I wish I had posted something along the lines of what I mentioned in my analyst pick this morning (DailyFX Roundtable), but unfortunately I didn't, nor did I trade it. I doubt this bearish leg is over yet, and while we could see the pair recover slightly overnight, I think it'll target at least the July lows/61.8% fib of 1.9408-2.0152 at 1.9695.

I'll agree to that. I think it may retrace to 1.9860-70 overnight then fall back to 1.9700 during US session tomorrow or afterwards.

Where did all the Matrix traders go? I'm interested to hear what they have to say?

I thank you Se1paul,terri belkas,frederik,Longhorn and all other who might add comments.
1-have no doubt whenever I have some info at least I rely on to trade I will hesitate to share as normally I will not pay from my money for others to win.
2- I believe that posting unstable and unprofessional post here is a big responsibility as there are many viewers and newbies might get this and go with it and might end them loosing real money which I believe this will not make me or you feel happy.
3- when I see few of real pro traders with charts and trends I find my place behind the desk learning I can't and will not pretend that I am the teacher. after all this a real world money trading not gambling or personal prediction based on mood.
guys take it easy ... last week many fights happened with many users on this forum the result came we lost smart people,(no need to mention names). we don't know each other we are all coming from different world, and this is a stressful business I guess we are in contact with each other more than we are with our families.
that's all I have to say and I hope I will find among viewers some with a happy mood which will relief us from time to another while we are behind screen.
good luck in your tradings we all need it.

Originally Posted by Kate Stewart

This thread is dedicated to the GBP/USD and will be moderated by a real DailyFX Analyst who will post news, research and anything else that pertains to this pair. Please feel free to express your opinion about what direction you believe the market will take and what you think about the research presented.

Please note that this thread is for posting about the GBP/USD only. Any postings not related to this topic may be moved. For threads that were previously available under this forum, please got to Strategies and Guest Traders and you will find it there.

Thanks a lot and happy trading!

Kate Stewart

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Kate:

Thanking you

Originally Posted by Longhorn

I'll agree to that. I think it may retrace to 1.9860-70 overnight then fall back to 1.9700 during US session tomorrow or afterwards.

Where did all the Matrix traders go? I'm interested to hear what they have to say?

I am newbie in Matrix, and I haven't fully mapped the higher time frame yet
But it seems that the turning date was July 29 (not July 30 as I said before), and the high price was only 1.997.

From now on, the strategy is only to sell rallies until 1.94.

Licking My Wounds

Today I was fairly confident that the cable was going to continue its upward trajectory and with a swing here and there we should have gotten closer to the 2.0000 level. Unfortunately for my still standing open bullish position at 2.0009 (Ouch) the cable plunged and lost it boost. Instead of the pair moving upward it zipped back to earth at an amazing speed losing just about 200 pips.

As we know that average movement of the GBP-USD is about 150 pips on a good day. Today was above average and there had to be a reason for the amazing sell off. It appears that the sell off was as a consequence of the bidding taking place across in Europe as many 63 financial institutions were aggressively bidding to get greenbacks to replenish their reserves.

Well it all happen that 63 financial institutions bid for more than the quadruple the amount of dollar on offer. The 63 financial institutions bid over $101 billion for the $25 billion auction which without a doubt, caused the dollar to rally and the cable to plummet.

For more information regarding the bidding auction please click here:

Real Time Economics : The Buck Stops Where?

Perhaps in the future we should consider days the dollar auction is taking place as it may cause the dollar to either rally or plummet.

However, we must realize that the reason that so many institutions are aggressively bidding to stash dollar in their vaults, is because they see the financial markets getting worse and not better. They are hoarding additional powder in the form of dollars which they see as a must have to be able to survive the more severe and more shoes drop financial crisis in the American continent. Unfortunately this hoarding of USD should not translate to long term strengthening of the dollar, but to the contrary it should weaken the buck therefore the bullish sentiment should return in surpass the 2.100 levels.

Happy trading

Originally Posted by Flguy

Licking My Wounds

Today I was fairly confident that the cable was going to continue its upward trajectory and with a swing here and there we should have gotten closer to the 2.0000 level. Unfortunately for my still standing open bullish position at 2.0009 (Ouch) the cable plunged and lost it boost. Instead of the pair moving upward it zipped back to earth at an amazing speed losing just about 200 pips.

As we know that average movement of the GBP-USD is about 150 pips on a good day. Today was above average and there had to be a reason for the amazing sell off. It appears that the sell off was as a consequence of the bidding taking place across in Europe as many 63 financial institutions were aggressively bidding to get greenbacks to replenish their reserves.

Well it all happen that 63 financial institutions bid for more than the quadruple the amount of dollar on offer. The 63 financial institutions bid over $101 billion for the $25 billion auction which without a doubt, caused the dollar to rally and the cable to plummet.

For more information regarding the bidding auction please click here:

Real Time Economics : The Buck Stops Where?

Perhaps in the future we should consider days the dollar auction is taking place as it may cause the dollar to either rally or plummet.

However, we must realize that the reason that so many institutions are aggressively bidding to stash dollar in their vaults, is because they see the financial markets getting worse and not better. They are hoarding additional powder in the form of dollars which they see as a must have to be able to survive the more severe and more shoes drop financial crisis in the American continent. Unfortunately this hoarding of USD should not translate to long term strengthening of the dollar, but to the contrary it should weaken the buck therefore the bullish sentiment should return in surpass the 2.100 levels.

Happy trading

Yes, that may have made some difference, with the demand for dollars reaching a new high at the auction.

However, I am not sure how great this effect would be, as this rush for dollars is no new thing. There has been a great demand for dollars from European banks since the crisis started in August, as most of their troublesome assets are dollar denominated, but these said institutions lack the dollar liabilities compared to their US peers, due to not having a natural inflow of dollar deposits. To counter this, many European banks have previously borrowed in euros, sterling and swissie, via their cental bank liquidity schemes, and swapped into dollars, thereby fuelling similar levels of demand for the greenback.

I would put much of yesterday's decline down to mildly dollar positive economic news, crude oil falling below its 100-day moving average, a rally in equities and yet another bout of poor economic data from the UK.

I am looking for opportunities to short the pair, but find myself reluctant to take on a position at these levels, with the NFP data release on Friday - an event which could well see a spike in the pair. I will watch price action today for short-term opportunities, where it will be interesting to see if the pair can clear the 1.9845 area.