Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Black.day

Meantime ...

Hourly price action appears to be forming a flag (red). Subtracting the low on Jul 29 from the high on Jul 24, should the lower t'line break then a projected target would be around 1.98~ ... slightly below my target (outlined in my daily chart) of 1.9867 (as it stands today). The t'line is rising so I will adjust the target accordingly whilst continuing to adjust my stop to factor in the interest payable on the short.

Does this target sound fair game?

Hi Black.day,

The flag in the GBPUSD does look enticing. Just a word of caution, however, I've noticed that although flags like this do happen often, they may signal reversals dependant on the time frame. In other words, flags tend to lose their justifiability, the longer they are in play. Just an observation, although I do still prefer these formations along with pennants on continuation. I'm keeping an eye on the trendline and holding firm to my expectations of 2.01 with no sub figure dips in the immediate future.

Originally Posted by arco

Hello Black Day

The Gann picture is muddled but it tends to favour a short stance IMO.

Yesterdays EOD came again minor active Gann which moves today to 2.04288. Watch for hesitation at 2.0264, 2.0020

More major active Gann supports - 2.01638, and the ultimate @ 1.9970 which would tie in nicely with a possible AB=CD corrective and the uptrend line.


rgds - arco

Are you currently short heading into the 2.0264 Arco?

Originally Posted by tpaulbeaumont

"makes a higher low[mark] above .0181" which we got at .0265, just prior to when i posted the above comment, but i had no idea that would be the 'higher low' at that stage so didnt really capitalise on it. Today we're in a similar situation in my eyes, cables now retraced little over 61.8% of the entire bounce off the weeks opening lows, and i would expect another higher low above .0181 and a move north eventually printing above y'days .0377, but i think the larger trend is down, so its very possible .0377 is a sufficient bounce and its downhill from here.
.0181 remains key

Great call on the GBP tpaulbeaumont. Looks like morning price action topped out just below the mentioned target....were you able to capitalize on this round?

Originally Posted by Richard Lee

Great call on the GBP tpaulbeaumont. Looks like morning price action topped out just below the mentioned target....were you able to capitalize on this round?

topped out? no im hopefull its got enough in the tank for a print above .0377 still i dont like talking about my trades, it makes them get stopped out lol, suffice to say i have a position You?

Originally Posted by tpaulbeaumont

topped out? no im hopefull its got enough in the tank for a print above .0377 still i dont like talking about my trades, it makes them get stopped out lol, suffice to say i have a position You?

That is so true....I apparently have the same problem...lol. What I can share is the fact that I am short on pullbacks with a longer term target at the 2.0100 figure.

Testing the underside of the flag's lower t'line and running along down the side of the t'line drawn from Jul 26 intraday high across the top of Jul 31 intraday high. Now it seems that the flag is more a box and starting to range between .0376 and .0202. More of this type of PA until tomorrow I suspect ...

Originally Posted by Richard Lee

Hi Black.day,

The flag in the GBPUSD does look enticing. Just a word of caution, however, I've noticed that although flags like this do happen often, they may signal reversals dependant on the time frame. In other words, flags tend to lose their justifiability, the longer they are in play. Just an observation, although I do still prefer these formations along with pennants on continuation. I'm keeping an eye on the trendline and holding firm to my expectations of 2.01 with no sub figure dips in the immediate future.

Observation noted, thank you. Seems that you are correct in that the flag pattern hasn't (yet) played out as I'd hoped for. In fact, it looks a tad half mast and about to be reigned in. I'll stick with my lower target level for the time being.

Richard - yes im looking for it to come off after a new recovery high above .0377, hopefully it''l' fall beyond 2.0100 though i see your an analyst here, do you know how i can stop recieving emailed updates whenever someone posts on here please, they're driving me mad! I went to teh profile area, requested NO email notification, and unsubscribed from the 2 threads i look at, twice, yet they still arrive...

black - lol love those charts

Originally Posted by tpaulbeaumont

Richard - yes im looking for it to come off after a new recovery high above .0377, hopefully it''l' fall beyond 2.0100 though i see your an analyst here, do you know how i can stop recieving emailed updates whenever someone posts on here please, they're driving me mad! I went to teh profile area, requested NO email notification, and unsubscribed from the 2 threads i look at, twice, yet they still arrive...

black - lol love those charts

Hi tpaulbeaumont, to stop e-mail updates, go to 'User CP'. On the left side of the screen, click 'List Subscriptions', and check the box next to the thread you want to unsubscribe from. In the drop down box underneath that, select 'Delete Subscription' and click 'Go.' That should do the trick.

thanks Terri, maybe 3rd times the charm

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For me, I don't think you even need a forecast on direction for GBUSD. Given its range between 2.0375 and 2.0200, it looks like the levels and risks are clearly defined. If you wanted to play volatility alone, you can do so in an aggressive manor or a conservative one.

For the aggressive (which I am guilty of pursuing and sometimes losing on) you can take a short at market (now 2.0355) with a stop up at 2.0390 to 2.0425 with a target that can be a fraction, or all, of the range. Good risk/reward, clearly defined. And for a long side trade you can set an entry just above your stop on the short position with targets beginning at 2.05. Of course, you can get whipped out this way, but then again you can always get whipped out with any kind of limit stop or entry orders.

Perhaps the more prudent strategy is to set a limit long around 2.04 and let it float until the US event risk comes on line. A short on the other hand, would probably be best suited to a limit entry that is 25-45 points below spot (wherever its at before NFPS). Really though, a conservative trade would be to just float a limit short below 2.0175 to play a range break to the downside.

We'll probably get choppy price action until tomorrow's NFPs, so the risk in open positions is a little higher. I am going to place an order for a break to the upside as that seems the safest bet: it most likely won't be triggered until big event risk comes along (NFPs?) and a lack of technicals above 2.0375 would likely open the way for momentum.

I have read on many websites and forums with the possible rate hike in the UK the gbp/usd will be heading higher towards 2.0600, with this in mind will gbp/usd head down towards 2.0100 before this happens?

Originally Posted by tpaulbeaumont @ 08-02-2007, 10:38 AM

[...] im looking for it to come off after a new recovery high above .0377, hopefully it''l' fall beyond 2.0100 though [...]

now looking for a reversal. areas of particular note are .0499 and .0520 to my eyes.


Terri/Rich - ive recieved 1 post update for another thread, so perhaps it has stopped now!?

Here is a close-up view of GBPUSD. One possibility has a flat correction unfolding now from 2.0287. Wave c of the correction is likely to end near 2.0354 (38.2% of 2.0462-2.0287), which is also near ther former 4th wave (in yellow). Bearish opportunities exist near there.

Originally Posted by tpaulbeaumont

now looking for a reversal. areas of particular note are .0499 and .0520 to my eyes.


Terri/Rich - ive recieved 1 post update for another thread, so perhaps it has stopped now!?

Great news tpaulbeaumont, sometimes it takes a couple of days for the system to make the changes permanent....

Great spot on the area of reversal....hit a high of 2.0461 before coming back around to trade at the 2.0300 figure. Were you able to get in on the move?