Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

after having the wind knocked out of my sails on Tuesday, almost going bankrupt and ending a mega run on winning trades (45 i think it was) I have now recovered my losses and I am back to where I started, I am now on a 17 straight trade run and well and truely have my confidence back, funny old game this....but having said that I was trying to really make some big money, live by the sword die by the sword......

Take what you can and give nothing back.

Originally Posted by dgreatwhite

I feel your pain FL, The problem with the GBP/USD right now is that no trader, technical nor fundamental knows what is going on because there is no technical or fundamental reason.

I like John G's attempt at an explanation earlier, that many large institutions were holding short USD positions, are now switching to USD longs now fearing that Europe, UK and the rest of the world are just as bad and the US will recover first (first in trouble will be the first to get out?).

To all the guys that have been arround for a while, have you seen anything like this before?

I come from the mess of the credit markets where all the mess has been going on for sometime (2 years). In my twenty-three years in the credit markets I have never seen anything like this before.

I am more of a believer that although things are bad in the US and getting worse, elsewhere ie, in particular UK and Europe, we still depend more on credit than most other countries in the world, therefore the credit correction is far from over here in the USD. We are not done bullish with the EUR or the GBP yet. I believe that the rebound for GBP is coming probably next week as we can not ignore the EW. However long term bearish for the pair, bullish mid term.

We are still going to see some more major banks failure ie: Fannie or Freddie, WAMU and maybe BOA because of their purchase of Countrywide, and once they start becoming more evident we will switch back to some bullish in the GBP or the EUR. However I also believe that the pain in Europe is growing as well. However they do not have that many high profile institutions with so many deep problems. Therefore bullish to the GBP and EUR shall return soon.

How I am navigating and trying to make money?
I read what everyone is doing here in the forum and keep the fundamentals and technical analysis equally balanced in my mind. I can not do just one and not the other.

The pull back will happen probably next week.

Originally Posted by Flguy

So in order to be able to hedge your account, did you had to open a sub-account of your main account to be able to hedge? At least with my broker any opposing position will automatically cancel my initial position for the same amount of the new purchase. Is that what you are doing, opening a different account to be able to hedge the opposing position?

My broker FXCM allows me to keep open opposing positions any time. However, I opted to open a different account simply because I did not like to see my follies- those pound/dollar short positions that kept on accumulating negative rollovers everyday-which depressed me everytime I saw them. In the active account, I actively traded other currency pairs but rarely made money on the pound/dollar longs. After the pound started declining from its 2.0150 high, I started shorting it from 9930. I considered it sweet revenge that I was earning pips from pound shorts to pay off my daily negative swaps while making money on other currency pairs.

After almost two months at it, my desire for "revenge," my daily objective of meeting those negative rollovers (especially during wednesdays at 3x) and the eventual decline of the pound, allowed me to clear all those nasty shorts at 9400, and netted me an 80% return on my active account. So upadastra, unlike me, you should be fine since you are assured of earning positve swaps every day and give or take a few months, we should see the pound go back at those levels.

Originally Posted by Flguy

I come from the mess of the credit markets where all the mess has been going on for sometime (2 years). In my twenty-three years in the credit markets I have never seen anything like this before.

I am more of a believer that although things are bad in the US and getting worse, elsewhere ie, in particular UK and Europe, we still depend more on credit than most other countries in the world, therefore the credit correction is far from over here in the USD. We are not done bullish with the EUR or the GBP yet. I believe that the rebound for GBP is coming probably next week as we can not ignore the EW. However long term bearish for the pair, bullish mid term.

We are still going to see some more major banks failure ie: Fannie or Freddie, WAMU and maybe BOA because of their purchase of Countrywide, and once they start becoming more evident we will switch back to some bullish in the GBP or the EUR. However I also believe that the pain in Europe is growing as well. However they do not have that many high profile institutions with so many deep problems. Therefore bullish to the GBP and EUR shall return soon.

How I am navigating and trying to make money?
I read what everyone is doing here in the forum and keep the fundamentals and technical analysis equally balanced in my mind. I can not do just one and not the other.

The pull back will happen probably next week.

But wouldn't you say that the credit and money market breakdowns are a global issue. Personally, I think it is a financial-specific issue rather than a country-specific issue; and London and New York are the capitals in that respect.

What's more, this is more at stake with the BoE's primary lending rate (at 5.00%) than the US's benchmark (2.00%). A return to cuts in the US would be destabilizing, but everything being equal, it would be far more threatening if the UK signaled the same.

How far do you think it would rebound? Former support?

Originally Posted by dgreatwhite

feel your pain FL, The problem with the GBP/USD right now is that no trader, technical nor fundamental knows what is going on because there is no technical or fundamental reason.

I like John G's attempt at an explanation earlier, that many large institutions were holding short USD positions, are now switching to USD longs now fearing that Europe, UK and the rest of the world are just as bad and the US will recover first (first in trouble will be the first to get out?).

To all the guys that have been arround for a while, have you seen anything like this before?.

Hi all, I've been going through these threads and feel there might be something that could be contributed to it. Btw, my name's Stallion,a.k.a Forexgreenland and I specialize on reviewing and previewing GBPUSD. Incidentally I made a trade call on some of the forums out there to short the cable 3 days ago, purely from a technical analysis perspective.
Here's an extract:

A total of 173 pips haulage was made in the last 72hrs after my intial call. Cable was dropping it like its hot...dropping pips after pips, after pips..

Originally Posted by masif1

well done another great call.

I'm just paper trading at the moment, and unfortunatly i got out yesterday with the 69

points. i should have had faith and stayed in, how many points is that in 72 hours

Forexgreenland?

I'm buying you a whole crate Ginger Ale :clap:

Originally posted by batangas:
[qb] GBP is just behaving nicely at this time.. there will come a time soon when it defies

these kind of expectations.

I'm from many places in S and SE Asia, fxgl. Kuala Lumpur is a very expensive city u know.

And many refugees from Burma flowing in there. [/qb]

Yeah,batangas...cable and other currency pairs are behaving nicely this time, IF you know

where to look and HOW to take advantage of it. Like a Panther, each single move is an accumulation of years of trading experience in which the movement of the 'herd' is already known, to a considerable extent.Timing is everything when you strike.
This is the time for anyone to enter trading, AFTER the proper training. The time when it defies most usual expectations is during NOVEMBER and DECEMBER periods(end-of-year trading), where the big dogs(banks/institutional traders) are jostling for positions. That is when its prudent to take a break from trading.Lots of whipsaws and tearing of stops.

Originally posted by jvaustintx:
[QB]

Originally posted by forexgreenland:
[qb] SELL GBPUSD @ 1.9505
STOP LOSS@35 TO 40 PIPS AWAY
1ST TARGET POINT@ 1.9385
2ND TARGET POINT@ 1.9332.

WAITING FOR NEWS TO FUEL THE DOWNWARD DRIVE...REMEMBER NO 100% PERFECTION IN TRADING...
STALLION
If you still care to continue with our 2nd and third targets,its up to you..To be on the prudent side, use just 1 minilot to take it up.

salutations stallion,

way to go, you have been making great calls. a quick question, are you using the original T1 & T2 for T2 & T3... respectively that is?
Have a happy day, JV
[/QB]

Hi JV,sorry gbpusd has already hit before I could reply...Yes, I used the original T1 and T2 for T2 and T3, SINCE 1.9436 became our first target point.
Thank you..

Originally Posted by tacamonchi

keep your 2+ longs. It may take months before it reaches that level but at least you are earning positive swaps. Just make sure you have enough margin to cover it while waiting. Last June 13, I, like you, had lots of short positions at 1.9400s and unfortunately, I had to pay the negative swaps. And there was a nerve-wracking time when pound price reached 2.0150 that my floating losses reached more than 24,000 dollars, almost 70% of my usable margin. From June 13 up to yesterday, I paid out a total of 2,200 pips in negative rollovers. But in that same period, I worked hard and earned more than 10,000 pips, netting almost 8,000 pips after those negative swap payments. So just make sure you have closed your 1.94 shorts and trade your way up to 2+. By that time those long positions would have earned you good positive swaps. Good luck!

I personally think this is quite dangerous advice, considering the sharp change in market sentiment.

I think there is a strong chance of some retracement in the coming week, particularly with the PPI and CPI being released from the UK and the retail sales numbers from the US. Yet this retracement, assuming it comes, may only take place after spot drops to 1.88, which is a distinct possibility.

Also, I would not draw too much comfort, or base your trading decisions in such volatile markets, on the positive carry you are receiving. This benefit is tiny, given that your broker is most likely taking a spread on both the overnight GBP and USD depo rates used to calculate the daily swap points.

At this stage, you need a get-out plan, rather than a vague notion of holding until it reaches 2.0. It may well reach 2.0 again, perhaps in 1 month, 1 year or 10 years, who knows. But before this occurs, spot may drop to 1.88, 1.86 or 1.72. Will you still be comfortable holding on to your longs for dear life at these levels? If spot does start to retrace, at what levels will you look to start closing out your positions? If spot does start to drop on Monday, at what level will you close the position out and cut your losses?

Each day you need to look at the market afresh and think "if I was to enter a trade now, based on the information available, would I go long or short or stay out of the market?". This is a more prudent and sensible approach than being married to a losing trade.

Personally, I have taken a tiny speculative long position at 1.9217, with a S/L just below yesterday's low, initially targetting 120 pips. I think some unexpectedly bad US data or corporate news could be the trigger for a retracement or perhaps a delayed market reaction to the conflict in Georgia could spark a spike in oil, leading to a fall in the greenback and equities. Either way, I feel the severity of this move, which isn't based on any new economic news, is due some correction in the short-term.

i have sold G/U @ 1.9272 with stop 2.0152 and target 1.8518.

Originally Posted by Hina Rina

i have sold G/U @ 1.9272 with stop 2.0152 and target 1.8518.

2.0194-1.9569=0.0625
1.9510-0.0625=1.8885(target point)

Hi Hina, nice call on the cable... There's a Head and Shoulders pattern on the GBPUSD Weekly

chart, which is giving us a minimum target of 1.8885.
Price might still get way down to your target of 1.8518 since it is a lil below the 60% BUY

WINDOW,technical analysiswise. Remember, since this trade is being taken off the weekly(higher term chart), it is logical that it would take more time to get fulfilled. Next week would unfold the mystery...Lets keep our fingers

crossed,shall we?

hi

i know i am a stupid trader but this above trade doesnt make much sense to me. the risk reward is not of much sense ( u gain 700 pips or u loose more than that? )

and apart from that one could loose a lot on carry as well.

Originally Posted by Hina Rina

i have sold G/U @ 1.9272 with stop 2.0152 and target 1.8518.

I agree, it doesn't make a great deal of sense to me either. You are exposing yourself to an unnecessary amount of risk.

Why don't you move your S/L much lower, perhaps to a former support level? This way, if and when stop is hit, you can re-evaluate your view and, if appropriate, enter another short position at a much higher level.

On balance, I feel there is a far greater chance of 1.8518 being hit before we see 2.0152, but you still shouldn't expose yourself to this degree of risk. And the cost of carry will become hefty if spot goes back to near 2.0000 and you have to wait many months for your target to be reached.

hi all

i see more and more people saying that we will see 1.86 before 2+ for sure. does it mean, i am not being wise sitting with my 2+ longs? if 1.86 does happen near term, i am probably better off closing my 2+ longs now so that atleast most of tat loss will get recovered on my shorts if it goes to 1.86. i am in a total fix. wat time frame are people looking at for 1.86?

also do people think there will be action even before london opens tomorrow?

Originally Posted by upadrasta

hi all

i see more and more people saying that we will see 1.86 before 2+ for sure. does it mean, i am not being wise sitting with my 2+ longs? if 1.86 does happen near term, i am probably better off closing my 2+ longs now so that atleast most of tat loss will get recovered on my shorts if it goes to 1.86. i am in a total fix. wat time frame are people looking at for 1.86?

also do people think there will be action even before london opens tomorrow?

I would have pulled out of that trade a long time ago!
I don't like to lose on any trade, I try and keep a good track of winning trades sofar now from the last 65 trades I have lost 4 and they were unfortunately big losses.

the UK is all doom and gloom at the moment, whereas on the other side of the pond more and more positive news is happening.

Oil is also down to $115, I also think the pound will tumble some more, I have a target of 9120, then I will reasess (if that is how you spell reasess?)


wise words from Paul, you should take heed Upstrada to what he has written!

take what you can and give nothing back

Originally Posted by upadrasta

hi all

i see more and more people saying that we will see 1.86 before 2+ for sure. does it mean, i am not being wise sitting with my 2+ longs? if 1.86 does happen near term, i am probably better off closing my 2+ longs now so that atleast most of tat loss will get recovered on my shorts if it goes to 1.86. i am in a total fix. wat time frame are people looking at for 1.86?

also do people think there will be action even before london opens tomorrow?

Hi upadrasta,

Some of us believe it will go to 1.86 by Sept – Nov (and very unlikely to visit 2.0 by then). Right now I have a short position, but I still put a stop loss because I know that I can be wrong and nobody can tell the market what to do.

Your question is a very personal one, and hence it’s very difficult to answer. If you make decisions based on what others tell you to do, and it doesn’t happen that way, then you’ll be very disappointed and blame others.

Here’s something to consider, suppose you decide to believe opinions in this board that price won’t visit 2.0, and it will go to 1.86 by Sept / Nov, and you decide to close your long at 2.0 and take a huge hit to you account. And then you enter a short position at a certain price. Will you be willing to limit your loss this time, let’s say if price goes back up to a certain price level, you decide to close your short and take a double hit. If you don’t want to limit your short risk again, and price keeps going back up until 2.0, many people in this board will change their opinions and say price probably will go to 2.05 and never visit 1.92 again. Projection and opinion change very quickly based on how the market performs. Market just can not be told what to do.

My projection prior to Friday is that price will fall to probably 1.945, then come back to 2.0 next month, before falling to 1.86 by November. But after Friday, my projection changes and it can go to 1.86 by next week even or by September, and it won't visit 2.0 again for foreseeable future. My projection and others projection change very quickly based on market action. Projection is just a probability and it can be completely wrong.

hi cmellon

just to let you know i am only looking for more and more views and some advise and of course i wudnt indulge in a blame game.

i respect people's view but i wud blame myself for wat i do.

Lets see how the market pans out this week.

Cheers

Pair already has dropped more than 100 pips to 1.9108 over the weekend..