Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by pipsempire

1.7350 - 1.7450 may be the next support as it is .50 fib of overall rise from 10/06/2001 to 4/11/2007.

Cheers,
-PE

Interesting you give 1.7350 a possible target as this is the measure for the weekly head and shldr break or near as damn it. I have been searching for some confirmation all day that we have seen a bottom but can't seem to find much. Have resisted the temptation to go long so far as if we have seen the bottom the retrace will be fairly substantial when it does come.

The only thing i have found is the longer term studies show bullish divergence but have done so since 07th august and we have come down some 1300 pips since then.

Will keep looking, have you seen anything yet?

ps
is a hammer and spinning top on the 4hr good enough?

Originally Posted by etarkum

Hi Cmellon, great stuff so far! I finally entered with 1 lot at 1.7815 stop so far at the low for the day! Have you moved your stop at entry?

Where do u think is a good place to add more to longs, as in when it wud be confirmed that the Low today was the lowest till Dec..
\\Cheers

Hello,

I do not move the Stop Loss. I sold one of my longs to fund the trade. We have yet to see if 1.7779 can hold, so I won't do analysis on where to add more longs yet.

Originally Posted by ALF

As a new, please accept my regards to anyone in this forum. Also - many thanks to anyone’s attemptions for predicting the market’s moves.

Cmellon, great pleasure to read your analysis, based on the Market Matrix tool. If possible, please share with us - are there any basic rules, applied in money management strategies, according to the features (time related) of this system.

Thanks in advance. Have a nice time.
ALF

Hello,

It's a quite complicated system to explain in a forum. There are books out there, and also other sources you can check, such as The Matrix Newsletter: History of Market Matrix

The method is not perfect. It doesn't predict exact date nor exact price to enter and exit. For that, you need to do your own analysis using multiple different tools, such as Delta, EW, Fib. At the end of the day, you still need to use your best judgment, and sound money management is required.

What the method helps me is in giving me confidence in my own trade, regardless what all others are saying.

Originally Posted by pipsempire

Hi John,

You trade on fundamentals or technicals? and how long you been in forex trading?

Regards
-PE

I use both. Fundamentals to keep me with the long-term direction and to plan for increases in volatility. Technicals for trade entry, stops and targets and medium to short-term trend. Realistically the latter is a reflection of the former, but many ppl refuse to believe this.

Originally Posted by teckybloke

Interesting you give 1.7350 a possible target as this is the measure for the weekly head and shldr break or near as damn it. I have been searching for some confirmation all day that we have seen a bottom but can't seem to find much. Have resisted the temptation to go long so far as if we have seen the bottom the retrace will be fairly substantial when it does come.

The only thing i have found is the longer term studies show bullish divergence but have done so since 07th august and we have come down some 1300 pips since then.

Will keep looking, have you seen anything yet?

ps
is a hammer and spinning top on the 4hr good enough?

Hi teckybloke,

I haven't seen any reversal signal yet but Monthly and Weekly RSIs are in oversold territory. It happens very rare and after that there is normally a big reversal. But these are long term time frames, there is a possibility that pair still move down further and quickly reverse.

Regards
-PE

Hi Newb,
What is the exit strategy for this method, (when the 8 high crosses the 20 potential for a up move begins...once the 8 low line crosses 20 up move confirmed.

when the 8 low crosses the 20 potential for down move begins..once the 8 high line crosses 20 down move confirmed

Thanks.

100 pips down in 10 mins... fast way to lose money. long stopped out @7760

hello

i kept a stop loss at 7778 but it got executed at 77662 and 77636. is it a gap down or fxcm screwed up in my case? can someone using fxcm confirm pls.

Originally Posted by upadrasta

hello

i kept a stop loss at 7778 but it got executed at 77662 and 77636. is it a gap down or fxcm screwed up in my case? can someone using fxcm confirm pls.

the move was very fast, 100 pips in 5/8 mins, so the filling of orders get screwed like in news times...

Originally Posted by upadrasta

hello

i kept a stop loss at 7778 but it got executed at 77662 and 77636. is it a gap down or fxcm screwed up in my case? can someone using fxcm confirm pls.

Mine got executed at 7777

The fxcm responds slow in almost all cases when movement is fast like in the case of news. Enter or exiting is such a pain in such situations because execution comes at least 10 pips late. In my case, i sold my longs (could not resisting earning a hundred pips), then shorted the two lots again hoping to reach 7790 again. Well, it did pass by and triggered my TPs of 7775 on its way to 7715. So gained almost 170 pips due to providence alone. Now searching for a price point to go long. CMellon, any ideas? I understand that you said that matrix and ew charts project that pound will reach bottom on or before mid-Sept, and the first week isn't yet over. So are we looking at 7630 as possible bottom...

Originally Posted by cmellon

Mine got executed at 7777

hey mine is a mini account could that be the reason. 7777 is pretty ok. but a 12-15 pip slippage is a bit too much i thought. i called them up and they said that it is becos of gapping down .

well anyway... i am not getting any sense of these px moves. any comments?

Originally Posted by upadrasta

hey mine is a mini account could that be the reason. 7777 is pretty ok. but a 12-15 pip slippage is a bit too much i thought. i called them up and they said that it is becos of gapping down .

well anyway... i am not getting any sense of these px moves. any comments?

The risk reversal is high as we are very close to turning point. I thought yesterday was ITD 8, but it turns out not.

All the best.

Originally Posted by upadrasta

hey mine is a mini account could that be the reason. 7777 is pretty ok. but a 12-15 pip slippage is a bit too much i thought. i called them up and they said that it is becos of gapping down .

well anyway... i am not getting any sense of these px moves. any comments?

Time ago, I saw 30-40 pips of slippage when news are released. be careful on high volatility... I have an assumption here... I think internet speed could help on slippage if your PC is not able to transfer the order to the server on time, then your slippage is higher... but this is just an assumption. Some time ago, I wanted to create entry orders for high volatility times, then close the trading station to see how prices works out when you are not connected... but finally I never did that...

A.

hi

today was a case when i was not connected both when my entry order got filled and also when it got stopped out.