Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

For anyone trading the cable, this daily report is put out by Lloyds TSB and might have more of a British analyst perspective which might be an interesting contrast: http://www3.lloydstsbcorporatemarket...20_08_2007.pdf

Originally Posted by NEWShawk

For anyone trading the cable, this daily report is put out by Lloyds TSB and might have more of a British analyst perspective which might be an interesting contrast: http://www3.lloydstsbcorporatemarket...20_08_2007.pdf

Hey Newshawk, if you're interested in reading other third party reports, definitely check out my weekly "Third Party Research" link.

I put together a list of some insightful weekly reviews from a number of different banks every Monday, and it's definitely worth a look.

Here's the one for this week (Lloyds TSB is included):

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/other/f...621544862.html

If you like it you should definitely sign up for the weekly update via e-mail:

http://www.dailyfx.com/page/free_gui...keyword=01t141

Originally Posted by NEWShawk

For anyone trading the cable, this daily report is put out by Lloyds TSB and might have more of a British analyst perspective which might be an interesting contrast: http://www3.lloydstsbcorporatemarket...20_08_2007.pdf

Hi NewShawk,
Great find, is there a steady link where our viewers can get the research every week or is this through subscription only?

Originally Posted by Richard Lee

Hi NewShawk,
Great find, is there a steady link where our viewers can get the research every week or is this through subscription only?

Yes, Rich. It's in the link I cited above:

http://www.dailyfx.com/page/free_gui...keyword=01t141

Go there and sign up for third party research. You will receive an e-mail every Monday with the research reports I publish in my weekly piece.

Originally Posted by Richard Lee

Trendline Resistance Keeping Pound Down

Pound sterling also seems to be having a difficult time cracking the fib resistance at 1.9935 in the NY session. As such, the GBPUSD pair is conforming to the 2.0257-1.9898 declining channel trendline in the short term, with momentum indications coinciding with stiff resistance just below the 1.9850 round figure resistance. This leads us to believe a move lower is favored heading into the close before any attempts are made to the upside in the near term.

Sterling tested the 1.9800 support at the close on Friday, bounced higher off of the figure to trade above at 1.9853 when everything was said and done. Meandering in the afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised if we see an advance higher with scope for an extended rally above on a break of that ominous 1.9900 resistance. Anyone long out there?

Thanks a lot for the info David, I'll definitely sign up.

Originally Posted by Richard Lee

Hi NewShawk,
Great find, is there a steady link where our viewers can get the research every week or is this through subscription only?

The site is free, you can actually login at any time.

Pound Bullishness Looks To Emerge

The corrective advance from 1.9651 is continuing on through the New York close as the sterling tests the 1.9869 23.6% fib from the 2.0461-1.9649. Momentum indications are biased to the upside, making the argument for a rally to 1.9977 plausible on a break of the aforementioned 1.9935 resistance in the short term. Comparable downside looks limited to the 1.9800 figure.

Originally Posted by NEWShawk

For anyone trading the cable, this daily report is put out by Lloyds TSB and might have more of a British analyst perspective which might be an interesting contrast: http://www3.lloydstsbcorporatemarket...20_08_2007.pdf

Hey NEWShawk,

Do you by any chance look through any blogs or other sources other than bank and financial news sources? I have been trying to filter through a number of economists and trading sites to get the theorist side of the markets (usually good in giving high probability forecasts) to balance with the practical trading, and have come up with a number of places I like. I receive John Mauldin's weekly news letter (really good stuff as he directs money and really talks about how these things can effect trading). I also keep up to date on PIMCO's analysis (especially Bill Gross's stuff), The Big Picture , Nouriel Roubini's blog (which Kathy turned me on to), and Daily Speculations (the site put together by trading legend Victor Niederhoffer and his wife, which Jamie told me about).

Of course I also read the Gartman letter every now and then and I'll scan through UBS', Goldman Sachs' and Deutsche Bank's stuff; but all that is paid for research.

If you or anyone else has good sites that I could get into, I would appreciate hearing about them.

British Pound should rise tomorrow. I will be long!!!

Good luck!!!


GBP

The pre-planned short-term sales from the key support range have been realized with attainment of minimum assumed target. OsMA trend indicator having marked the activity fall of both parties does not bring in a determines to a choice of planning priorities for today, but at present, taking into account generally low level of bearish counteraction, we have grounds to preserve chosen buying priorities for forthcoming period but with a risk of sharp alignment of forces in favor of sales. Hence as before, we assume a possibility of pair return to supports 1.9800/20, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buys on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.9860/80, 1.9900/20 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.9960/80, 2.0000/20. An alternative for sales will be below 1.9760 with the targets 1.9700/20, 1.9760/80.

I don't use moving averages much but I do like to pay attention to the longer term moving averages, especially the 200 day SMA. Cable may be building a base right at the 200 day. A bullish bias is confirmed above 1.9743 by my wave count. You can see wave counts for the majors (including Cable) at http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx...696239959.html

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

Hey NEWShawk,

Do you by any chance look through any blogs or other sources other than bank and financial news sources? I have been trying to filter through a number of economists and trading sites to get the theorist side of the markets (usually good in giving high probability forecasts) to balance with the practical trading, and have come up with a number of places I like. I receive John Mauldin's weekly news letter (really good stuff as he directs money and really talks about how these things can effect trading). I also keep up to date on PIMCO's analysis (especially Bill Gross's stuff), The Big Picture , Nouriel Roubini's blog (which Kathy turned me on to), and Daily Speculations (the site put together by trading legend Victor Niederhoffer and his wife, which Jamie told me about).



Of course I also read the Gartman letter every now and then and I'll scan through UBS', Goldman Sachs' and Deutsche Bank's stuff; but all that is paid for research.

If you or anyone else has good sites that I could get into, I would appreciate hearing about them.

Thanks for the links, I'm sure everyone else will also find them really interesting. So far I have mostly been following news sources basically because my interest is more towards comparing views from different nation's major financial papers. I sometimes check out Bill Cara's site. I would like to find out more but I'm always a little skeptical of online blogs as you never really know how true the person's credentials are. Have you checked out any University sites? I'm sure some Economics professor at Wharton has a blog and has an interesting take. Just a thought but I'll keep you posted. For now, this is the article I read today from the London Time's:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle2298354.ece

do not rush, always wait!

Bullish Bias Confirmed Through Heat Map Assessment:

Aside from near term dollar weakness,

The Pound sterling remains the dominant currency, even as traders have taken the major currency slightly lower on carry trade liquidation. Among our heat map currencies, the British pound continues to be one of the best candidates as interest rate speculation continues to support the major, minimizing any downside that may befall it. As a result, our heat map continues to show an upside bias even as the stock market performance for the week remains subpar. Looking ahead the GDP figure looks to be the only bit of economic data that may help the sterling appreciate, until the Bank of England decision in the first week of September.

US Session Update

Trading in a considerable range, the odds are for a potential uptick in the pound sterling as bidders eye the 1.9867 resistance trendline to be penetrated, above our benchmark of 1.9743. The break above would subsequently put the 1.9900 psychological trendline in play with medium term forecasts lying around the 2.0083 August 13th spike low.