Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by se1paul

In my opinion, it's highly unlikely for an economic recovery to start in the UK anytime in 2009, more likely Q1 2010 at the earliest. The UK economy is expected to contract by as much as 2% in 2009, which was cited by Mervyn King in a recent key note address. Even the wildly optimistic UK government predicts a contraction of up to 1.25%, which, in my eyes, tells us to expect something a whole lot worse.

There is a far bigger credit bubble in the UK, compared to the eurozone or arguably the US, with far higher levels of private debt in relation to GDP and a bigger housing bubble - using the earnings to house price ratio measure. All of this means that the UK are likely to suffer a more brutal and longer lasting adjustment than its peers.

Very nice report. Iam weak in english so I cant explain
like this.

Originally Posted by 4Weekfx

Folks

We went through Week Two .. Today we ended with a 300 plus point day. Till date we are up over 500 points . We had 3 pretty challenging days with net losses of 160 points on Dec 9th and 62 points loss on Dec 10th and even a big loss of 190 points on Dec 11th which was erased and ended positive for the day and eventually had a decent week. Big thing is we traded GBP/USD only and for those who know anything about the COTS report , the pair is stuck in a side ways and is one of the most trend less phases and very difficult to trade right now.

The point we need to notice is we had challenging and frustrating days and big losses but we stayed with our system and that saved us . This is the challenge and all these are real results not hypothetical

We are improving our method of delivering the signals to make them more in time and you will see better weeks ahead.

If you would like to become part of this movement , join us at Four Week Forex Challenge

We are the Keep it Simple and safe folks

V

We will be happy to see you real time tradings
example on this forum - with your real time
forecasts and trading signals. With such result this can
be very profitable for members of this site. You have
to undestand that infos regard past results isnt
so reliable for traders

Hi BH

Thanks you for your comments, I went short on eur/usd at 1.30 thinking the most likely event then would be some sort of a retrce back down to 1.28 or even 1.26! Boy was I wrong, I am still in that position and am wondering if it will be going back down to the 1.30 or 1.31 levels or will it be rising upto the1.40 level.

Especialy as next week may bring bad news for the dollar, such as substantial opec oil cut, a 0.75% Fed cut in interest rates and no auto bailout!

It seems bad US news or loss in DOW, S&P no longer seems to effect the Euro negatively.

Is there anything that can stop the fast rise of the Euro!

hmmm
Its impossible to know for sure regard the future.
Shorttermy everything is possible but if eurusd
drops very fast now than maybe are chances
to break below 1.3. what will be signal to
downtrend. But in this moment this isnt
realistic.

In the past I was thinking the same like you
regard eurusd. No one prediction is 100% proof.
So we have to expect downdrops on our accounts
and thinking about changing direction when this is clever
to cover looses and thurn them into profit.

Thing can change very fast so be ready to change
position. If you change position in right moment
than you (all of us) can very quich turn loose into profit.
But to chang positions too quich and too many times
(what is problem of many of us those times at this volatility)
can be dangereus.

arround 1.31 we will see.

Whay you cant change position if you see different
direction? This is almost must for all of us.


p.s. European economy is very robust and powerful with
clever leaders.
So from long term view eurusd at 1.6 and even 1.7 is quite
realistic in a year or two. But in midterm everything is possible
because europe dont want too strong euro and wants stronger usd.
In next 5 - 10 years no ones economy will be comparable with
europen.

I think

Yes I think you are right BH.

I think it will be interesting to see where eur/usd opens on sunday.

Also it will be very interesting to kow if the dollar is being weaken by certain powers inorder to possibly increase the attractiveness of US exports.

As a previous posting suggested the euro is 0.33% the old German mark, a very strong Euro may not be what a major exporter such as Germany would like this moment in time.

Who knows but lets wait and see!

Originally Posted by JohnG_FX

If you get stressed trading then you need to really look at your methodology. You have to really understand what moves the markets and trade with a clear plan, entries and exits set beforehand on your own analysis and being prepared to take a loss and get out or reverse a position as soon as the original criteria for entering the trade has been proved wrong.

Freezing in the headlights is a a guaranteed way to lose your capital over and over again.

The majority of people will never be able to trade profitably over an extended period of time,

And there are a few who get to grips with their own physcological makeup and eventualy get a handle on it. That's when it gets good

Right on! Well said.....

I know it may sound hokey - but a while back i began to realize multiple parallels of my life in the FX market. My major failures could be attributed to fear, greed, lack of patience and loss of the big picture (thats a HUGE one).

I have been striving to correct those issues personally, and what do you know......I have been posting consistent gains.

Trade less - make more pips!!

I am biased long GBP for a 500 to 1500 pip run.

I look at weekly charts once before the week starts. I make entries on the 4 hr chart.

The GBP appears to be in wave c-of-iv consolidation that should carry to the 5500 area, with 6500 area in extension. The 6500 area is the confluence of the lower degree wave iv (red) and the 0.382 Fib for the wave C-or-3 move down.

The EUR appears to be in a wave c-of-iv consolidation that will end soon, below the 3748/3880 area.

The EURGBP is finishing up a 5-wave rally soon. The higher probability is for a correction back to the 8230 area.

The context is suggestive of a strong GBP rally and a EUR decline, to satisfy the EURGBP cross-rate decline.

GBPUSD = 1.4946
EURUSD = 1.3376
EURGBP = .8947

(1/GBPUSD)x(1/EURGBP) = 1/EURUSD => (1/1.4946)x(1/.8947) = .74782

USDEUR = .74782 => EURUSD = 1/.74782 = 1.3372

If this analysis plays out, the GBP will go up faster than the EUR, and then keep going up while the EUR declines, resulting in a EURGBP decline. The cross rates must be consistent or extremely rapid arbitrage takes place.

I usually translate the word "volatility" as "I don't know what is going on".

Hi hedghog,

The eur/usd chart you have put up, suggests an exuastion, does this mean you think this pair will now be bearish and drop lower as there is not a triangular formed?

Interesting to here comments about the Dmark and German long term. USD is doomed on the med to long term due to the 700 BLN bailout. probably will see a flight to gold in the 2000 dollar area soon and flight to Euro as suggested.

how long can the germans hold back the tide?

will the possible 1.35 be the high in the med term?

ps I'm short Euro/GBP and GBP/USD
rob

Any break of these levels negates this EW forecast and calls for reconsideration.

GBP: 1.4526
EUR: 1.3888
EURGBP: .9087

Sunday GbpUsd might hit 1.484 and bounce up to 1.491.
1.491 would be my daily resistance line, so it Could break, letting gbpusd go up to 1.504 on monday? I'll see how my daily resistance line holds up though, we could be bouncing back and forth from my hourly to daily all night tonight.
So monday could be questionable as whether it is bearish or bullish.

Happy range trading
Check it out...
http://www.creative-silence.com/081214gbpusd.gif

Originally Posted by fasi26

(Please remember to take half profits after you are +20 pips while shifting stop loss to

entry. And 15 to 25 pip trailing stop should be used after 2 nd have hit..)

i dont understand ur words????/////

Helloo fasi, lets illustrate ,shall we?
For example, we have a buy stop @ 1.5000, where stop loss was 50 pips away, @ 1.4950...so our buy stop was triggered and price gets to 1.5020 or more..THAT is when you adjust your stop loss level from 1.4950, up to the buy entry level of 1.5000..then taking half profits means closing half your position(s)..if you entered with 1 minilot, you close at 0.5....if 2 minilots, you close at 1 minilot...sequentially...failure to apply this simple risk management technique while trading, is the cause of so many unnecessary losses..
Hope you now understand..

Originally Posted by realjimmy

Hi Stalion, You've always done nice jobs, and i've always missed your live comment and signal.

I am in Australia, not sure what normal time you would give comment or tell people how to trade.

I think you are fantastic and really want to follow what you have got. Every time when I got up here, you have already disconnected.

Please let me know.. i need your help..>_<.

Hi Jimmy...thanks for your mail....howz the famous Down Under?....The Land Of The Antipodes...hope you guys are treating the aboringes well over there..cool..well,am really humbled by your comments, mon ami...London Session is mostly where I'm at...3am EST...

[11:29:04 10/12/08] Stalion : hi fasi

[11:35:42 10/12/08] klho83 : Hi Stal

[11:49:03 10/12/08] fasi26 : stalion????

[11:49:08 10/12/08] Stalion : how was trading yesterday?

[11:51:15 10/12/08] fasi26 : i didnt trade

[11:52:11 10/12/08] Stalion : cool

[11:54:09 10/12/08] fasi26 : bcoz it's hlidays here so i m enjoying 2 days of eid

[11:54:56 10/12/08] Stalion : yesterday price got down to our 1st target on our sell stop, before going back up

[11:56:04 10/12/08] Stalion : but if your buy stop had triggered, you would have been stopped out....and a reentry today would get you to 1st target @ 1.4865 on our buy stop entry

[11:56:16 10/12/08] Stalion: Happy Sallah, fasi


[12:01:30 10/12/08] fasi26 : wht was the impact of obama's speech

[12:04:19 10/12/08] Stalion: didnt know he had a speech....what was it all about, fasi?

[12:05:16 10/12/08] fasi26 : it's about new economic plan of america

[12:05:24 10/12/08] Stalion : hi K

[12:05:36 10/12/08] fasi26 : and he still wana spend more money for the infrastructure of america

[12:09:38 10/12/08] Stalion : YEA...LIKE fdr DURING THE gREAT dEPRESSION OF THE 1930'S

[12:11:09 10/12/08] fasi26 : yes he said that more money can be spend as campared to 1950;s

[12:11:31 10/12/08] fasi26 : and economy will go down more before taking high

[12:11:55 10/12/08] Stalion : President Frank Delano Roosevelt did massive reconstruction to overcome the US Depression

[12:17:58 10/12/08] Stalion : by pumping more money into the system through effective Reconstruction, he emplys more workers...this is like the faceoff BETWEEN EMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION...FINE, TOO MUCH DOLLARS MIGHT BRING INFLATION, BUT LOW UNEMPLOYMENT RATES ENCOURAGES GOOD CONSUMER SENTIMENT, WHICH BRINGS IN HIGHER DEMAND AND PRODUCTIVITY , WHICH TRANSLATES TO

[12:19:34 10/12/08] Stalion : BEATING THE GLOBAL SLUMP...CREDIT, THOUGH LOOKING TO BE MORE REGULATED, WOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT FOR EXPANSION...

[12:46:51 10/12/08] fasi26 : hmmmmm ur right

[13:17:37 10/12/08] Stalion : hi dj

[13:19:44 10/12/08] Stalion : did you get our buy stop?

[13:23:45 10/12/08] djcarlos : yes.. thanks... but I was in the car... and now the 2 targets are hits

[13:24:25 10/12/08] djcarlos : in other trade ....

[13:26:22 10/12/08] Stalion: yep...correct...

[13:27:12 10/12/08] Stalion: hope you are going to be around when we have winning trades, dj....for that offsetts any losses we might have

[13:29:26 10/12/08] djcarlos : yes... I always have my laptop with wi-fi.... but now i dont got it with me

[21:54:53 14/12/08] Stalion : So for today Sunday the 14th, we put a sell stop on GBPUSD @ 1.4946...1st target @ 1.4923..2nd target @ 1.4905..3rd target @ 1.4884...

[22:01:53 14/12/08] Stalion : also as a hedge, we put a buy stop on GBPUSD @ 1.5005..1st target @ 1.5035...2nd target @ 1.5065...3rd target @ 1.5095..both with 50 pip stop loss away





1.5034(A)-1.4815(B)=0.0219
0.6*0.0219=0.01314
0.01314+1.4815=1.4946(60% SELL WINDOW OR SELL ENTRY)


1.4988(C) - 1.4815(B) = 0.01730
0.6*0.01730= 0.01038
1.4988-0.01038= 1.4884(3RD TARGET/60% BUY WINDOW)


GIVE THE PRICE SOME ROOM..LEAVE THE PRICE ALONE; LET THE PRICE ROAM AND TWILL FIND ITS WAY HOME..

i see eur/gbp unwind..i.e. gbp up, eur down.
comments?
bh yr down view on gbp still intact...?
creative science, seems like u change yr up view on gbp..am i right?

tks..panda eyes

gbpusd dinamic support at 1.48 wasnt break last friday.
We have to wait to possible a little downpush today but
one more upside push is very possible to 1.52
At 1.52 I expect break to down (again)

The same for eurusd. Seems that 1.36 is very possible
shortterm target now because eurusd dont want to go down

It looks like eurusd in in longterm uptrend now.

Originally Posted by BH-Eurofighter

gbpusd dinamic support at 1.48 wasnt break last friday.
We have to wait to possible a little downpush today but
one more upside push is very possible to 1.52
At 1.52 I expect break to down (again)

The same for eurusd. Seems that 1.36 is very possible
shortterm target now because eurusd dont want to go down

It looks like eurusd in in longterm uptrend now.

tks input.
but seems up down up down change everyday, sigh.
1day we see the pair gbp shd resume down last fri,
the next day the pair will go back test 15200, tough...

love panda eyes