Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

Is this the start of a new trend?

Well better US stock exchange/equities/futures market numbers was lower dollar and higher the risk currencies.... and lower US markets = higher dollar and lowe risk currencies.

However since thursday i noticed that the opposite seems to be happening especially since the bad unemployment figures which meant bad stock markets and then bad dollar index and better risk currencies.. is this is a new trend?

G

Originally Posted by asherewt

Thanks Fazi,

On the other hand, I've added the Alert feature to my Ichimoku Indicator (you've been waiting on that more than others I guess ) but I need to test it when the market opens tomorrow as I need real-time ticks to see if its doing what its supposed to do.

Will send you the latest version once I'm ready.

Cheers,
Asher

thanks Asher

Originally Posted by fazi

Ok guys - I do regret my recent short

4h chart - chikou span is firmly above price wall now. In bullish scenario I expect it to hit kijun sen next week. So 4h closing price should not exceed 1.6118 and maximum should reach top of the cloud and hit monthly pivot. Monthly S1 acted as a good resistance today, so there is a good chance for pivot testing in my opinion. I`d be very surprised with any move higher than that level - double bottom with bearish cross below cloud on dailies seems pretty unreal to me.
Bear in mind that a triangle may be in play so 1.6124 could stay safe - cloud is a reversal zone in general.

Otoh - on an early break of 1.5769 I`m short.

BTW - geppy looks almost the same - monthly pivot at 145.5 (top of the cloud also) and a retest of double top neckline seems very likely - daily kijun sen at 146.5 coincides with a neckline so nicely.

edit: one more thing - I may focus on aussie early next week - weeklies and dailies look awfully bearish and I think it has fallen from the top in clear 5 waves, but I need to count sub-waves first - this may be a very, very good shorting opportunity.

Have a good weekend everyone

Patryk

Hi, Patryk

The pivot and S/R indicators on your charts look reasonably small but clear, not like the ones I have, either too get in the way or a bit too small/crowded on higher time frames. What is the indicator that you use?

Thanks

Check your email

Originally Posted by Franosh

Hi, Patryk

The pivot and S/R indicators on your charts look reasonably small but clear, not like the ones I have, either too get in the way or a bit too small/crowded on higher time frames. What is the indicator that you use?

Thanks

positioning: fiber - short, stop above 4700, cable - flat

outlook: both pairs despite bouncing off near term lows - still showing room to slide further - i think the next 12-24 hours could possess a fairly large move

maybe going against the tide here with my bearish short term view - but can't deny what i see.....no doubt, bottom spikes from friday could signal pushes north, but i am far from convinced

i unfortunately get pretty fixated in certain congestion points that come up on my charts....and euro/usd still has yet to reach some significant spots to the south...we'll see....

good trading all!

update: all shorts closed

flat til further notice - both forming bullish signals - looks like up then down

as for shorts to come - i am not looking too high on either pair....4700 for fiber, and 6000 for pound....if short term indicators are extreme at those points, will begin to develop shorts

if price rejects and heads towards the lows - will be looking to sell rallies...

good day guys! see you in 24-36hr

The date is fell on 28 Sept. 2009

Originally Posted by Sensatus

Since my last post the price broke through the middle trendline at 10pm GMT yesterday. This resulted in switching my position to a buy at 1.5757 and making 13 pips in the process. This morning at 7:54am GMT the price hit the upper resistance trendline and I switched to a sell position at 1.6069 locking in 112 pips profit.

I am now in a sell position and will switch to a buy position if the price breaks above the resistance trendline that is currently being tested using an hourly interval trendline alert. Should this happen I will trade the Cable up to the middle longer term trendline. I've set up a 1 minute interval trendline alert to switch my position to a sell if the price falls below the middle longer term trendline.

On the flip side, if the current resistance level holds the plan is to switch to a buy position if the price rises above the steeper support trendline that it bounced off on Monday the 28th.

I'm now posting my trades and strategies in near real-time on twitter.

I spent the latter part of last week at a trade show in London so I'm a little behind in posting my trades. I decided to simply post my trades in real time on twitter /timetotrade and catch up later.

Last week was messy. I started the week making 13 pips and then 112 pips as mentioned above. I then ended up getting whipped out of two position losing 33 pips and then 70 pips, before ending up being in a sell position with the original strategy that I posted on my previous entry.

This morning at 2am GMT the price broke through the resistance trendline at 1.5932 locking in 101 pips profit. Not a bad way to start a week and put closer on last week's trades. Looking at the price movement over the last month, the GBPUSD is moving in a channel:

Attachment 38420

After breaking through the resistance line (see previous post) early this morning, it rallied and at around 7am GMT this morning it hit the longer term one month resistance trendline. If I had been up in time this morning I would have sold at around 1.6020 when the price hit longer term resistance trendline, but alas I was not. I was going to manually switch to a sell position but instead I have decided to use the intra-day support level as illustrated:

Attachment 38422

If the price breaks below the intraday support level based on a five minute interval trendline alert I will switch to a sell position. If the price falls below the longer term middle resistance trendline based on a one minute interval I will switch to a sell position.

If the price breaks through the one month middle resistance trendline I will cancel the intraday trendline alert and trade the longer term channel. Ideally the price will rally to test the upper resistance trendline, or failing that break the intraday support and pull back to test the longer term support level.

Originally Posted by steve_tts

The date is fell on 28 Sept. 2009

Hi Steve,

What is that time matrix that you use? Can you give us a brief description please?

Thanks,

Patryk

morning guys,

friday was a hard day, since then a long weekend which has taken it's toll of me. one major headache this morning and I can't see which way is up, at the moment.

currently, flat since friday close... except long term GBP/USD. waiting for some direction.

steve_tts, what is the matrix you are using. looks rather patriotic?

Daily studies have finally turned up, but weekly studies are still very oversold and with only 2 of the past 12 weeks putting in positive closes, and very marginal ones at best, we contend that the market is on the verge of a major bullish divergence. The previous weekly close is very bullish on its own with the formation of a dragonfly doji pattern. Ultimately, any setbacks in the early week should be well supported ahead of 1.8060, in favor of the onset of a material recovery rally. Look for a break back above 1.8475 to confirm and accelerate. POSITION: LONG @1.8225 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.7975.

Originally Posted by Joel Kruger

Daily studies have finally turned up, but weekly studies are still very oversold and with only 2 of the past 12 weeks putting in positive closes, and very marginal ones at best, we contend that the market is on the verge of a major bullish divergence. The previous weekly close is very bullish on its own with the formation of a dragonfly doji pattern. Ultimately, any setbacks in the early week should be well supported ahead of 1.8060, in favor of the onset of a material recovery rally. Look for a break back above 1.8475 to confirm and accelerate. POSITION: LONG @1.8225 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.7975.

Long GBPAUD??!

You gotta be kidding me, with all the speculation that RBA could raise rates and UK continue with QE?

Originally Posted by steve_tts

The Date is fell on 28 Sept. 2009.

Steve, good to have you posting with us. Welcome to the trading community.

You'll want to post your charts using the "manage attachments" button below the text box rather than placing them within the text. That will allow your post to show up and the system not to reject it.

Welcome aboard!

Any you guys think the fx trading environment is moving back towards how the market moved before mid 2008 and the global crisis?
How did you have to change your trading style since then? For those of you who have a few or more years trading fx under your belt?
It would be helpful to hear. I started trading almost to the day that Lehman Bros, collapsed. So all I know is from then.
I suppose lot sizes had to be reduced because of the volatilty and to keep sound mm? True? Did wider stops become necessary?

Originally Posted by KP FX Trader

Any you guys think the fx trading environment is moving back towards how the market moved before mid 2008 and the global crisis?
How did you have to change your trading style since then? For those of you who have a few or more years trading fx under your belt?
It would be helpful to hear. I started trading almost to the day that Lehman Bros, collapsed. So all I know is from then.
I suppose lot sizes had to be reduced because of the volatilty and to keep sound mm? True? Did wider stops become necessary?

KP, I used the ATR indicator a lot to gauge volatility...and I'd reduce my number of lots and widen my stops. My dollars at risk (% of my account at risk) were the same...but as the market got more volatile...I reduced the volatility to my own personal account that way.