Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

Time to go short

Originally Posted by BalazsHUN

I would go long cable around 1,6150/1,6200 with stop 1,6050.....first target 1,6490. What you think?

Anything is possible

On the medium term ,Cable'S MTD point must be in as price has now exceeded the last ITD high...

I think a higher frame has also come in with the MTD, & we're going above the last Major swing high of 1.70 area in a 5th wave.

Spike above the neckline offered a great short opportunity to sell with divergence on M15, MACD(3,10,16) which is my primary momentum indicators.

John, what if your seasonal rotation is inverted...?

This 1.57 area low could well be your seasonal point 17.........

I have my seasonal as inverted on this cycle hence the more long bias over the higher frames.

Thanks

( I enjoy all the delta posts)

sure was a good experience.. still intact thanks to stops and a heads up from people here.. hurt alot though.. arrgh.. never knew what hit me.. LOL!

totally lost right now, will be scouring the forums for redirection.. haha..


good luck on the next ride, wherever its headed..

Originally Posted by MrWilson

John, what if your seasonal rotation is inverted...?

This 1.57 area low could well be your seasonal point 17.........

I have my seasonal as inverted on this cycle hence the more long bias over the higher frames.

Thanks

( I enjoy all the delta posts)

Hi there

If the seasonal is inverted then agreed that count would fit - what year do you have yours inverting ?

Here's my target for GBP/USD in the short term. We may experience a pull back to support before launching higher. We'll see.

sean, what do you make of the daily trend line resistance, couple that with the head and shoulders support line crossing it?
big question, I suppose, are we still heading for that 200 day MA to have a bona fide downtrend?
we are still below the 100 MA.
Am I right in stating that the break of the 200 MA typically confirms the trend in the direction of the break?

Apparently, the well established h4 resistance line is enough to change your bias to uptrend,

On Delta (the conventional one, not Copan's Delta Matrix), ITD10 low is in, and Cable is moving up to ITD11 high. In addition, MTD2 might be a high. Current MTD cycle is in inversion window, so the picture might be unclear. Given how Cable was in the last 2 days, I have currently adjusted MTD2 as a high, which might come in with ITD11 high. Since 38.2 Fib from the 1.7 high has been taken out, the next level of resistance is 50 Fib at around 1.64

Originally Posted by KP FX Trader

sean, what do you make of the daily trend line resistance, couple that with the head and shoulders support line crossing it?
big question, I suppose, are we still heading for that 200 day MA to have a bona fide downtrend?
we are still below the 100 MA.
Am I right in stating that the break of the 200 MA typically confirms the trend in the direction of the break?

Apparently, the well established h4 resistance line is enough to change your bias to uptrend,

KP, it's immediate obstacle is the 50 SMA and the downward correction line. It's likely to overcome both, but we'll have to wait and see. I think my short term pattern targets show a break above...but we'll have to see if I'm right in that.

I think the bounce off of the 38% could mean that we will see the overall upward move resume mainly on dollar weakness.

Sean, I see a wedge continuation pattern on the daily, I suppose that favors uptrend resuming......agreed?
Wedge pattern forms with resistance line you drew and the neckline of the H&S pattern.

Isn't the gbp the weakest currency of the majors... can some one explain to me why there was such a violent spike the past 2 days, sterling is up across the board. It can't just be dollar weakness...

I'm using the "old school" 2007 roations John ...

Piphoarder, its down to Paul Fisher.........

FT.com / UK - FT interview: Paul Fisher

Originally Posted by imported_DennisC

I agree that a short is in the works but wouldn't enter just yet. The evidence is not there for a short just yet as the candles are still bullish. I would first look for a bearish pattern to emerge but certainly the RSI is showing oversold and the steepness of the rise is showing that a sharp retracement is in the works but the way this market is behaving I would await a candle confirmation first on the 60 min

Sounds like good advice which ever trend is dominant. Thanks,CB.