Thread: Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by cmellon

Attached is GBP USD SLTD chart with the last 3 cycles.
SLTD 4 has always been due near green line. The question is whether in the current cycle, SLTD 4 has been due at the question mark place (1.57 on Oct 13, 2009).

The more I look at past cycles, the more I am convinced that GBP USD is currently in a very long UP cycle (until SLTD 7).

To begin with, I think there's a good chance that SLTD 4 is due at 1.57 on Oct 13.
The length of time from SLTD 1 in Jan 2002 to SLTD 4 in Feb 2002 is 56 weeks.
The length of time from SLTD 1 in Dec 2004 to SLTD 4 in Dec 2005 is 50 weeks.

In the current cycle, if I assume 1.57 on Oct 13, 2009 is the current cycle's SLTD 4, then the length of time from SLTD 1 in Jul 2008 to SLTD 4 in Oct 2009 is 65 weeks. This is already more than the previous two cycles, and thus highly likely that SLTD 4 was already IN.

Assuming SLTD 4 is still not IN, the length of time from SLTD 1 in Jul 2008 to the current week is already 78 weeks! Compared this to 56 weeks and 50 weeks in the past two cycles, that's way too long. SLTD 4 was already due at 1.57, PEOPLE.

Now take a look at the length of time from SLTD 4 to SLTD 5 in the past two cycles. It was 52 weeks and 60 weeks! That's 1 YEAR UP CYCLE. 1 year from SLTD 4 in Oct 2009 is Oct 2010.

Please put me in to the SUPER BULLISH CAMP.

Good work!!..is the camp all ticket? or can anyone join...?

Originally Posted by forex friend

Hi C

Yes anything is possible but i feel where u have labeled 3 of C, i do feel it would be more correct to count that as i of 3 of C.

how would it fit into ur delta calculations if the low came later by say another 3-4 days

of course theres a good chance that if we are in the final stages of C and we may have a fifth wave that truncates.

JJ

Hi JJ,

MTD 6 low position at 2.1591 is not yet confirmed, therefore it's possible to have a new lows as you said. I would consider it confirmed when we could rally higher than 2.29. MTD 4 low at 2.13 on the other hand is also Long Term Low per my count in the last chart, so this should not be broken.

Hi C

Yes 2.13 line in the sand, 100% agreed.

From elliot point of view i think we could go a just a bit lower in the next few days, giving a better risk managemnet for the trade.

off course one could start to go long here with stops below 2.13.

I will post as i see the count develop.

JJ

Originally Posted by cmellon

Hi JJ,

MTD 6 low position at 2.1591 is not yet confirmed, therefore it's possible to have a new lows as you said. I would consider it confirmed when we could rally higher than 2.29. MTD 4 low at 2.13 on the other hand is also Long Term Low per my count in the last chart, so this should not be broken.

Originally Posted by cmellon

Attached is GBP USD SLTD chart with the last 3 cycles.
SLTD 4 has always been due near green line. The question is whether in the current cycle, SLTD 4 has been due at the question mark place (1.57 on Oct 13, 2009).

The more I look at past cycles, the more I am convinced that GBP USD is currently in a very long UP cycle (until SLTD 7).

To begin with, I think there's a good chance that SLTD 4 is due at 1.57 on Oct 13.
The length of time from SLTD 1 in Jan 2002 to SLTD 4 in Feb 2002 is 56 weeks.
The length of time from SLTD 1 in Dec 2004 to SLTD 4 in Dec 2005 is 50 weeks.

In the current cycle, if I assume 1.57 on Oct 13, 2009 is the current cycle's SLTD 4, then the length of time from SLTD 1 in Jul 2008 to SLTD 4 in Oct 2009 is 65 weeks. This is already more than the previous two cycles, and thus highly likely that SLTD 4 was already IN.

Assuming SLTD 4 is still not IN, the length of time from SLTD 1 in Jul 2008 to the current week is already 78 weeks! Compared this to 56 weeks and 50 weeks in the past two cycles, that's way too long. SLTD 4 was already due at 1.57, PEOPLE.

Now take a look at the length of time from SLTD 4 to SLTD 5 in the past two cycles. It was 52 weeks and 60 weeks! That's 1 YEAR UP CYCLE. 1 year from SLTD 4 in Oct 2009 is Oct 2010.

Please put me in to the SUPER BULLISH CAMP.

Hi C,

Your SLTD count looks good. There can possibly be a X wave triangle here - complete and ready to lift off.

Patryk

Hi Sean

Could u provide a update to ur post as i have a few fellow members who have emailed me regards there positions, with some concerns.

It would be good for there benefit if you could post a update to ur chart!

Thanks

JJ

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Once the "b wave" completes on GBP/USD, we may see a significant correction downward.

Let's see how it all unfolds.

Originally Posted by forex friend

Hi Sean

Could u provide a update to ur post as i have a few fellow members who have emailed me regards there positions, with some concerns.

It would be good for there benefit if you could post a update to ur chart!

Thanks

JJ

JJ, I assume you're referring to the daily chart. If so, here you go.

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

JJ, I assume you're referring to the daily chart. If so, here you go.

No Sean it was the one with elliot wave count.

JJ

Originally Posted by cmellon

Hi JJ,

You could be right. It's a little tough to count EW in a smaller time frame. The level that I am more comfortable as a support is the 2.13 (MTD 4, which is also LTD low if my count position is correct).

Take a look at the attached chart though. Is it possible for a completion?

Watch out this Wed's 4th Quarter GDP Estimate, it's certainly going to move all GBP pair. Next month's Inflation Report and Asset Purchase Target will also be extremely important.

Hi cmellon,
there's been a lot interest in GBPNZD pair lately. Please take a look at my count. Does it fit your Delta prediction? Thank you, Pacos.

everyone is guessing whether it's going up or down

this has got to be one of the funniest posts in a long time. guessing is gambling and if you gamble in forex you might as well write a check to your broker and stop right now.

Cmellon thanks again for your excellent posts and analysis as always

Originally Posted by forex friend

No Sean it was the one with elliot wave count.

JJ

I have no idea which one that would have been. You can probably get your best counts by asking the guys in the Elliott Wave forum that "eat, sleep and breathe" counts.

I've been doing all kinds of fundamental and technical analysis for about 17 years...however, Elliott Wave analysis...I'm an newer at Elliott Wave analysis and not a total pro at it yet.

So definitely look to the guys in the Elliott Wave forum the most when it comes to EW counts.

Originally Posted by forex friend

No Sean it was the one with elliot wave count.

JJ

This one may be the one you were referring to....which worked out very well but now may be finally winding down and coming to an end.

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/fibon...tml#post411541 (Fibonacci Trading)

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Once the "b wave" completes on GBP/USD, we may see a significant correction downward.

Let's see how it all unfolds.

Hi sean i think it is the post they are refering to...your post number 14020 on this thread..

my point on this is that the 1-5 could be the A wave...B wave then completed @5955 and todays rally was c wave...

At some point a drop to fill in the sunday night "gap" (6025/6050 area)...before more up is how i see it...

At this point i dont see price going too far below the gap zone tbh..before heading towards 6400 area...but ive been wrong plenty before lol

On a side note....Anyone have any rules for "gaps"..i know they usually get filled ...but i guess nothing stopping them getting filled later on in week if needs be?..as price could yet still continue this rally up to purple trendline that i showed on my previous charts..before down...

ohhh so much to think about lol...or beer?...beer wins...
laters..

EDIT..potential support levels before more up tommorow

Thanks for all ur help Sean, your a star!!

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

I have no idea which one that would have been. You can probably get your best counts by asking the guys in the Elliott Wave forum that "eat, sleep and breathe" counts.

I've been doing all kinds of fundamental and technical analysis for about 17 years...however, Elliott Wave analysis...I'm an newer at Elliott Wave analysis and not a total pro at it yet.

So definitely look to the guys in the Elliott Wave forum the most when it comes to EW counts.

Originally Posted by forex friend

Thanks for all ur help Sean, your a star!!

Thanks for the kind words. Glad to have helped out.

Hi there..
A daily close now back above the 200 MA...todays new daily candle currently wedged in between my trendline(green one) and 200MA(purple one)..ready for a big push up!?
Im looking for a big 250 pip push up tommorow to blast through the 6250 and get to the .500 retrace area..might be wrong but price looking as its coiling itself up to spring up the charts