Thread: Discuss GBP/USD - H2 2012

Originally Posted by fazi

Sloping TL has been touched and we may head towards 1.65 -1.67 area - SSI looks ugly for bears and there is still a week or so to complete the LTD13 sequence. Geppy looks likle wave C of the triangle unfolds so there is still room towards 130 or 132. Beeing a bear at heart and so close to the long term top (at last till end of the year) I still see a chance of a blow-off bull final.

edit: I hedged my short and I`m ready to dump it soon.

Patryk

thanks, I've moved my stop loss down to 1.6225.
30 min chart, price broke below 200 and retested it, so keeping my stop just above the 200 which i think is a good place. also we staying below 34 "high" so its a solid area to even short again i think.

GL.

Originally Posted by aerocom

Good to see your post. Thanks.

Good Luck.

Hi mate,

Here is what i think is going on here from timing perspective based on 12 itd x 32 lunar analysys. I`m not sure I can post Howdyys charts so I shall do it only once. Anyone interested can find them in strategies thread (GBP delta phenomenon).

ITD12 - as described in the previous post - MTD5/LTD13 top is near or in.

32 lunar - currently 2nd month - no.3 top is most likely in. no.4 bottom could be in today or will be very soon. Top of the month was in most often with no.1 and no.5. I have a gut feeling no.5 will be THE top (2nd and 5th series look the most similiar), which would suggest ITD3/MTD5/LTD13 top - shortly before the fullmoon.

As far as LTD14 bottom is concerned - well, DXY chart looks like a H&S top so this cable triangle could possibly be an X wave triangle afterall -I can hardly find a rationale behind such a move , but... - we`ll see.

Patryk

What was the BoE speech last night? The speech is 02.00 AM my time. So I was sleeping.
Where can I find the text/pdf?

Start long at 1.6225, wait and see.

Originally Posted by TAfool

.....I'm now all out of G/U and awaiting a short entry signal.

http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0917124hsmall.png

Originally Posted by TAfool

....preemptive entry on the short side, $1.6418. As price approaches that point will adjust up or down as needed. If it goes to plan, T/P around $1.2400 and current stop is $1.6560 (to be adjusted when entry hits).

As noted, all out and awaiting short entry point.

This was projected path from the triangle bust out:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0824124h.png

The path it actually took:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0917124hsmall.png

And a close up of how this (iv) is shaping up yesterday:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0919124h.png
And today:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0920124h.png

TAfool

Originally Posted by TAfool

As noted, all out and awaiting short entry point.

This was projected path from the triangle bust out:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0824124h.png

The path it actually took:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0917124hsmall.png

And a close up of how this (iv) is shaping up yesterday:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0919124h.png
And today:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0920124h.png

TAfool

16270 looks a good place to go short to scalp at least

so are we towards a bullish breakout????????
stopped out on 2 trades . another two waiting to step out at 63000

I am noticing RSI divergence on the 4 hour charts.

Starting to look like a good entry point for a short.

began cable fade, daily double top


short 1.62900 area



first target is 1.62580


mental stop

Originally Posted by divided@zero

began cable fade, daily double top


short 1.62900 area



first target is 1.62580


mental stop

I'm with you. my sell order got filled at 1.6300, a no brainer. my target will be 1.6080

my 5 positions has been stopped out both in euro n cable. everyone at +5 pips . now my short order at 63000 got triggered.

GBP/USD Weekly, Daily, 4 Hour, Hourly and 15-Minute Elliott Wave Counts

GBP/USD has just retested 2012 highs in the 1.6300 area. But how long will this hold? It seems like the pair is trapped in a huge range so range trading methodology may work; namely," sell at resistance and buy back at support."

However, the pair could stage a breakout north of the 1.6300 highs which would make the range trading method worthless as momentum traders jump in. With central banks around the globe racing to debase their currency in order to spur growth, Cable could reach higher. You can see the conflict on the various time frame Elliott Wave counts that may or may not be particularly helpful. As always, these numbers and letters are not set in stone and are subject to variability and recounts! So be careful and use stops. You may even want to dial down that leverage!


BTW,
Alejandro and I would really appreciate any contributions of trading plans, tips on creating plans, or spreadsheets that you could post in our new Trading Plan thread http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/tradi...ml#post1340755 (Trading Plans)

You can attach a PDF file or post it directly.



I hope that newbies and those who have been in the game but struggling would visit this thread. It will help you either sharpen your skills and give you a quick link that you can give a Trader who needs some help. Thanks!

Happy Pipping
Greg McLeod
DailyFX Forum Moderator/Trader

Originally Posted by divided@zero

began cable fade, daily double top


short 1.62900 area



first target is 1.62580


mental stop

first target reached, runner open towards 1.62300

Originally Posted by divided@zero

first target reached, runner open towards 1.62300

scaled in same area and add placed limit at 1.63022

Majority of traders are long US Dollar and Short Yen which is a contrarian signal that could mean more gains for Euro, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD versus dollar

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -3.30 as nearly 77% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -3.20 as 76% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 5.3% lower than yesterday and 3.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.3% lower than yesterday and 12.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.0% weaker than yesterday and 0.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.72 as nearly 63% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.57 as 61% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 7.0% lower than yesterday and 19.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.9% higher than yesterday and 9.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.5% weaker than yesterday and 4.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.45 as nearly 59% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.52 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.5% lower than yesterday and 10.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.0% lower than yesterday and 12.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.7% weaker than yesterday and 18.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 15.28 as nearly 94% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 13.98 as 93% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.8% higher than yesterday and 10.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.0% lower than yesterday and 10.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.2% stronger than yesterday and 7.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.65 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.53 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.4% higher than yesterday and 0.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.0% lower than yesterday and 3.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.5% weaker than yesterday and 2.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 3.19 as nearly 76% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.65 as 73% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.2% higher than yesterday and 7.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 13.4% lower than yesterday and 35.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.6% weaker than yesterday and 0.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.24 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.14 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.1% lower than yesterday and 19.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.2% higher than yesterday and 0.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.3% stronger than yesterday and 13.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.59 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.69 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 15.7% higher than yesterday and 31.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 9.0% higher than yesterday and 14.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 11.5% stronger than yesterday and 17.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

EURCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURCHF stands at 8.25 as nearly 89% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 8.85 as 90% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.3% lower than yesterday and 1.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.9% higher than yesterday and 8.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.5% weaker than yesterday and 24.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURCHF losses.

How do we interpret the SSI? Watch an FXCM Expo Presentation that explains the SSI.
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