Thread: Discuss GBP/USD - H2 2012

Originally Posted by TAfool

Just a simple chart with a couple of lines. Stopped at resistance, look for support on lower line.

TAfool
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0923124hsmall.png

Got the lower line hit as expected. Buy is currently under the line for an expected over/under match. Once a bottom appears to be set will get a firm upper target. For now, target is $1.6410. This should be the last up move and is the one I plan to short for a major move down. Long term (to be set once lower line breaks), is at 3761 for primary then 2151 secondary.

TAfool

http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0929124h.png

Here is my current count on the Gbp$. There are other counts here. I have 2 that are more bearish. This count is based on the hourly chart. I am still expecting a low below Fridays low after a bounce higher to complete wave 4 of (C). Based on wave a of 4, price should bounce in the area of 1.6174 before declining. I look for a minimum of .62 of 1-3 which would give a low based on anticipated high at 1.6075. But, I am looking lower to complete the H&S Pattern.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by durgesh147

GBPUSD making expanding triangle in wave 4 . looks like a good long around 1.6096 for target at above 1.6300 .

Originally Posted by aerocom

Here is my current count on the Gbp$....

Thank you both for sharing that! Those views helped me solidify my expectations for this move. For some reason I never put the expanding triangle into focus.

TAfool

**EDIT** Given these levels, that makes the 50% topside failure at 6354 and the 100% mark at 6438. Gonna watch the failure point closely. Current short entries are pegged at 6418.

http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0929121h.png

GBPUSD is about to complete its multi-year correction in wave 4. It has been coiling , coiling and coiling for quite long and now it's gonna be time for explosive move down.

I expect this upside move to end around 1.6440 to 1.65 . For all long time traders , time to start building shorts is coming soon .

I expect a big drop like 30 to 40 handles .

from the chart below it seems a short bet to the 16110 be my first target, not sure though if it will fall from 11pm uk time or uk trading hours though

This lovely setup is for all the Wolfe- wave followers out there. Its from a 15 minute chart.
Entry should be around 1.6173-75 target 1.6096 . On the 4hourly chart , this oncoming decline will complete wave E of an expanding triangle in wave 4.

Originally Posted by durgesh147

GBPUSD is about to complete its multi-year correction in wave 4. It has been coiling , coiling and coiling for quite long and now it's gonna be time for explosive move down. ......

Totally agree. Been tracking this thing for almost two years now. Downside can be HUGE! Here is long term weekly with a monthly inset. This particular count is my alternate to the one I've been pushing over the years but still results in the same outcome.

TAfool
Link for full size chart:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd092912W.png

Originally Posted by TAfool

Thank you both for sharing that! Those views helped me solidify my expectations for this move. For some reason I never put the expanding triangle into focus.

TAfool

**EDIT** Given these levels, that makes the 50% topside failure at 6354 and the 100% mark at 6438. Gonna watch the failure point closely. Current short entries are pegged at 6418.

http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0929121h.png

Hey TA,

Just a heads-up - legs of a triangle must be 3 wave moves. You're currently showing your potential 'e' leg to be a 5 wave move.

Originally Posted by apipintime

Hey TA,

Just a heads-up - legs of a triangle must be 3 wave moves. You're currently showing your potential 'e' leg to be a 5 wave move.

Thanks.

Yikes! I still had flat on the brain. Simple fix to a zig-zag.

**EDIT**
(was working on this one, http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0930121ha.png , and put the two together)

http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd0929121h.png

Placed a short on gbp at 16141 to stop at 16100 and cashed in.

Bulls vs. Bears: The Spread Betting Morning Update October 1 - 2012

Main presentation
http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/my-tr...ml#post1356923

Q&A session
http://www.livestream.com/dailyfx/vi...1-956e216f8a79
http://www.livestream.com/dailyfx/vi...0-9f6efc9ac26a

GBPNZD


GBPUSD

http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/?tz=...alse&low=falseGood Morning Traders! Welcome to the first day of trading for the month as well as the first day of the 4th Quarter. September was a wild one for the Euro as loosening of monetary policy from both Draghi and Bernanke sent the pair screaming on a sugar-high higher and the beginning of only to plummet at the end. October will prove to be just as exciting as interest rate announcements from 3 central banks will dominate price action. In addition, Friday's US Employment report will be the last before the US Presidential election and could change the political fortunes of either candidate that, in turn, could move the dollar.

Here is a list of the dates and times of each major event. You can find a complete list of major and minor economic events on the DailyFX Economic Calendar!

Happy Pipping!

Greg McLeod
DailyFX Forum Moderator/Trader

Morning Gregory been a busy day already shorting 50 pips on usd gbp

Originally Posted by sratansi

Placed a short on gbp at 16141 to stop at 16100 and cashed in.

Nice good stuff

Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI®
UK Manufacturing PMI edges lower as production and employment fall further

Key points:
􀂃 Manufacturing PMI down to 48.4 in September
􀂃 Production falls as new export orders decline
􀂃 Cost inflation spikes on oil and food price increases

Summary:
The downturn in UK manufacturing production extended into its third successive month in September, as order inflows remained lacklustre and job losses continued to mount. Cost pressures also surged higher on the back of the recent strengthening of oil, food and commodity prices.
The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Purchasing Manager’s Index® (PMI®) edged lower to 48.4 in September, from 49.6 in August, to remain below the no-change level of 50.0 for the fifth month in a row. The average PMI reading over Q3 2012 as a whole (47.7) is the lowest since Q2 2009.

Full report
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Marki....aspx?ID=10125