Thread: Discuss GBP/USD - H2 2012

Originally Posted by fazi

Yes - ITD4 top just in time. ITD5 bottom is due not until monday the 15th. That is after a newmoon in the Persian Gulf (3 CVNs soon in place) - mind the gap?

Patryk

Excuse my ignorance but what is an ITD?

Not sure what the catalyst will be but right now the market feels complacent, the VIX is too low given all the event risk globally. I am buying OTM options on stocks as I want to be long volatility and especially gamma. I know a lot of people on the board see continued USD weakness but one thing I have learnt to my cost previously is that when everything goes wrong the USD is the place to be and remains the reserve currency of choice. I've been watching the Iran situation and thought given the hyper inflation and civil unrest domestically they would probably welcome a Israeli confrontation to draw attention away from economic problems. China are doing the same thing with Japan to detract from the potential power vacuum at the top of the party and their obvious economic problems. When things go wrong a bit of nationalistic drum beating is a perfect distraction.........

London session review and outlook October 5 - 2012
Review of markets covered in today's edition of Bulls vs. Bears: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, FTSE100, S&P500, Gold, Brent Crude and WTI.




Regards

Alejandro Zambrano
Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London)

Originally Posted by fazi

Yes - ITD4 top just in time. ITD5 bottom is due not until monday the 15th. That is after a newm
moon in the Persian Gulf (3 CVNs soon in place) - mind the gap?

Patryk

Patryk thanks for the analysis. Plz tell me what do you reckon as ITD bottom. Is it 50's or 60's. Thanks.

Originally Posted by negativecarry

Excuse my ignorance but what is an ITD?

Not sure what the catalyst will be but right now the market feels complacent, the VIX is too low given all the event risk globally. I am buying OTM options on stocks as I want to be long volatility and especially gamma. I know a lot of people on the board see continued USD weakness but one thing I have learnt to my cost previously is that when everything goes wrong the USD is the place to be and remains the reserve currency of choice. I've been watching the Iran situation and thought given the hyper inflation and civil unrest domestically they would probably welcome a Israeli confrontation to draw attention away from economic problems. China are doing the same thing with Japan to detract from the potential power vacuum at the top of the party and their obvious economic problems. When things go wrong a bit of nationalistic drum beating is a perfect distraction.........

intermediate delta turnig point - all the markets move in constantly repeating cycles - every 4 or 32 lunar months depending on the count. Cable has 12 ITD points in 4 lunar month cycles.

Take a look at the chart:
1. ITD3 was due shortly before the fullmoon, but it was late - a clear indication of a down trend,
2. ITD4 top is due today,
3. Next stop is ITD5 - 11 trading days after the fullmoon, but in a down trend it should be late.
4. ITD6 top is due 8 days after the 5th - could be early or on time.
5. ITD7 bottom is due 5 trading days after the next fullmoon - as a 3rd and final in the sequence it may be early, on time or late.

maximum 3 ITDs make 1 MTD (medium term -roughly 1 lunar month long), maximum 3 MTDs make 1 LTD(long term), Maximum 3 LTDs make 1 SLTD (super long).

I will keep posting charts and explanations. 1.63 top is LTD13 and most likely SLTD1 top.

Patryk

Originally Posted by raisinghope

Patryk thanks for the analysis. Plz tell me what do you reckon as ITD bottom. Is it 50's or 60's. Thanks.

ITDs only tell you when to expect a turn. Falling back below previously broken sloping TL will probably be nasty. 1.57877 is .50 fib and previous resistance turned in to support.

However, if things get ugly in the Gulf I wouldn`t catch the knife.

Patryk

Originally Posted by fazi

intermediate delta turnig point - all the markets move in constantly repeating cycles - every 4 or 32 lunar months depending on the count. Cable has 12 ITD points in 4 lunar month cycles.

Take a look at the chart:
1. ITD3 was due shortly before the fullmoon, but it was late - a clear indication of a down trend,
2. ITD4 top is due today,
3. Next stop is ITD5 - 11 trading days after the fullmoon, but in a down trend it should be late.
4. ITD6 top is due 8 days after the 5th - could be early or on time.
5. ITD7 bottom is due 5 trading days after the next fullmoon - as a 3rd and final in the sequence it may be early, on time or late.

maximum 3 ITDs make 1 MTD (medium term -roughly 1 lunar month long), maximum 3 MTDs make 1 LTD(long term), Maximum 3 LTDs make 1 SLTD (super long).

I will keep posting charts and explanations. 1.63 top is LTD13 and most likely SLTD1 top.

Patryk

Thanks!

I assume there is some empirical evidence to show the correlation between the moon and the markets? I wonder why it exists......

From what you are saying it looks like we have a super long term top in place which would work with my long term view of cable heading back to a 1.4 handle over the next few months, I have to say I never paid attention to lunar cycles before but I'll keep an eye out now.

Originally Posted by negativecarry

Thanks!

I assume there is some empirical evidence to show the correlation between the moon and the markets? I wonder why it exists......

From what you are saying it looks like we have a super long term top in place which would work with my long term view of cable heading back to a 1.4 handle over the next few months, I have to say I never paid attention to lunar cycles before but I'll keep an eye out now.

Yes there is strong empirical evidence showing that correlation. Why does it work? Ask a psychiatrist or a neurologist what happens to their patients during the fullmoons - we`re all affected to some extend.

Cable has its own habbits - for instance it just loves to top out close to newmoons ( not in this month though).

I`m of the same view as it comes to the long term top here. LTD13 is a sure thing as we had 3 MTDs in a row. SLTD1 top hmm - last time SLTD1 top was in 2008 (2.04) and SLTD2 bottom was at 1.35.

Originally Posted by fazi

Yes - ITD4 top just in time. ITD5 bottom is due not until monday the 15th. That is after a newmoon in the Persian Gulf (3 CVNs soon in place) - mind the gap?

Patryk

Yes! The GBP$ will bottom in most cases either right on or within 3 days either side of the new moon. Where is the Gap?

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by aerocom

Where is the Gap?

Good Luck.

in the future - exhaustion/acceleration gap - if a newmoon is good for airstrikes

Originally Posted by fazi

in the future - exhaustion/acceleration gap - if a newmoon is good for airstrikes

Cover of darkness?

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Cover of darkness?

"...fly me to the moon.." darn where is it?

Originally Posted by fazi

in the future - exhaustion/acceleration gap - if a newmoon is good for airstrikes

I have copied your statements (not charts) and used along with being a frequent visitor to Chowdry's forum. I found the moon correlations before I knew what you all were talking about (ITD, MTD, etc.) I bought a copy of the Delta book. Is there any other study material available.

Also, for anyone that is interested, there is a Saturn-Ur---- opposition that occurs about every 20 years with the planets in the same location about every 40 years. We are currently in that cycle. This one would closely equate to the 60's and I think is the reason why we are seeing all the turmoil or upheaval around the world especially in the middle east.

From a market standpoint, the DOW in from 2000 is very similar to 1960 to 1975.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by aerocom

I have copied your statements (not charts) and used along with being a frequent visitor to Chowdry's forum. I found the moon correlations before I knew what you all were talking about (ITD, MTD, etc.) I bought a copy of the Delta book. Is there any other study material available.

Also, for anyone that is interested, there is a Saturn-Ur---- opposition that occurs about every 20 years with the planets in the same location about every 40 years. We are currently in that cycle. This one would closely equate to the 60's and I think is the reason why we are seeing all the turmoil or upheaval around the world especially in the middle east.

From a market standpoint, the DOW in from 2000 is very similar to 1960 to 1975.

Good Luck.

fascinating - also in terms of generations and thier charateristics.

edit: you`ve got a PM

Originally Posted by divided@zero

in a hole at the moment, should have known


holding short positions for the moment

retrace

all earlier positions out

Damn dropped 45 pips today! Was certain that going long was going to work. Oh well that's a net loss of 25 pips today. Going by the chart below it seems its going bear again. Anyone got tips for Sunday night?