Thread: Discuss GBP/USD - H2 2012

The original Delta solution from the Delta Office has cable putting in an MTD low this month. LTD in inverson time window. So huge potentials can be to both upside and down sides. Very up there there is still liquidity gap in price action speak that price will revisit one day. Weekly Ichimoku bullish, monthly neutral until Chikou span breaks to the down side. This is the ultimate catch-22.

- totally agree

edit: ultimately I`m bearish for the reminder of the year - but there is just this chance of another top

good to see you out of your cave

Originally Posted by divided@zero

state of affairs

closed all positons @ 1.60650 abouts


overall negative but not by alot, thats cable

London session review and outlook October 12 - 2012
Review of markets covered in today's edition of Bulls vs. Bears: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, FTSE100, S&P500, Gold, Brent Crude and WTI.



Regards

Alejandro Zambrano
Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London)

Originally Posted by fazi

quick delta update:

I`m flat with a miserable profit - I don`t like action from hourly delta perspective - we should still go up - stops above 1.61 could fuel some nasty spike.

ITDs - as long as 1.6215 top is intact bearish bias is favoured, but in terms of MTDs I came up with a possibility of yet another (final) top above 1.63. Given all the election effort (NFPs,jobless claims, confidence data) this might actually happen. Also geppy chart would fit better with this.

I don`t like the idea of another MTD up, as this would mean the latest had 4 ITD tops, but there was an ITD inversion . This would be the first time I see that THING.

I will post charts later (today/tomorrow) with all the details and arising questions.

take care everyone

Patryk

Patryk;

Here is a different perspective. I have a short term target at 1.6187. I had previously posted a possible target of 1.6212. It may take that out but, for now, 1.6187 is just above the top of the channel and the .618 fib level of the entire move down. The move up appears at this point to be corrective but, if it is a harmonic, a new high could be in order.

I am new to delta analysis and think it has some real potential. I was reviewing the rules last night and could not reason myself out of the location of ITD2, same as your chart. What is worrisome is that in my view ITD2 and 3 are higher. The rule in reference to ITD2 indicates the pair should go higher.

Good Luck.

do you have higher than normal volume on your charts over the last 15 mins? - eu vol is dead, aussie vol is dead

gold is having a bad evening

edit: eurgbp has also more vol than others

Patryk

Originally Posted by aerocom

Patryk;

Here is a different perspective. I have a short term target at 1.6187. I had previously posted a possible target of 1.6212. It may take that out but, for now, 1.6187 is just above the top of the channel and the .618 fib level of the entire move down. The move up appears at this point to be corrective but, if it is a harmonic, a new high could be in order.

I am new to delta analysis and think it has some real potential. I was reviewing the rules last night and could not reason myself out of the location of ITD2, same as your chart. What is worrisome is that in my view ITD2 and 3 are higher. The rule in reference to ITD2indicates the pair should go higher.

Good Luck.

thanks for your insight aerocom,

yes - ITD1/ITD2 position is a real pain for the second time this year - vide jan rally

Ok so what should I trade tonight at close of play for Sunday night Monday morning ?

Cable has been kind to me for this week. I went short on monday's opening. And i have been holding my short position for 5 days from monday to friday.

I took partial profits along the way and shifted my stop loss to breakeven. Decided to hold the trade over the weekend. The best trades are the worry-free trades. As these type of trades move immediately in my favour without going near my initial stop losses.

Originally Posted by fazi

....I don`t like the idea of another MTD up, as this would mean the latest had 4 ITD tops, but there was an ITD inversion . This would be the first time I see that THING.....

This is the problem that I have with delta. There are too many inversions with every pair except the EUR/USD. Pretty much finished modeling G/U and it comes out like most other pairs that I checked, which is too erratic for me. The only pair I use this on is the E/U since it has responded so well to it for the last 20 years (that's as far as I took it back).

Currently long with stops below $1.5970 and TP>$1.6400


TAfool

Originally Posted by TAfool

This is the problem that I have with delta. There are too many inversions with every pair except the EUR/USD. Pretty much finished modeling G/U and it comes out like most other pairs that I checked, which is too erratic for me. The only pair I use this on is the E/U since it has responded so well to it for the last 20 years (that's as far as I took it back).

Currently long with stops below $1.5970 and TP>$1.6400


TAfool

Hi is that a long term target?

Originally Posted by sratansi

Originally Posted by TAfool

.....Currently long with stops below $1.5970 and TP>$1.6400

TAfool

Hi is that a long term target?

Length is very subjective and depends on ones' outlook. For this trade, I'm looking at a few weeks max, although, by the end of this week would be ideal. Back below $1.5970 says I'm wrong.

Short is the long term (months) trade that I want to be in on this pair. Going into this multi-year consolidation G/U fell ~7000pips in about a year and I expect at least 50% of that move once it breaks down.

The big view:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/gbpusd092912W.png

TAfool

Originally Posted by TAfool

This is the problem that I have with delta. There are too many inversions with every pair except the EUR/USD. Pretty much finished modeling G/U and it comes out like most other pairs that I checked, which is too erratic for me. The only pair I use this on is the E/U since it has responded so well to it for the last 20 years (that's as far as I took it back).

Currently long with stops below $1.5970 and TP>$1.6400


TAfool

Interesting! I did the GBP$ with a12 point solution and I conclude that the pair will be down for another month. This also coincides with my long term Elliott scenario. Now, my invalidation price is 1.6216 and time is within 3-5 days of Oct 15. In other words, I am expecting a turn before Oct 20 and below 1.6216. If not, I've got more work to do.

I did close half my position. But, If I get what I expect, I will double up.


Good Luck.

MTD bearish case:

as long as 1.6215 stays intact this is my basis scenario.