Thread: Discuss GBP/USD - H2 2012

i might close at 16177 and then see if there is anything for another rise to the 16270 range..not sure of the stop level though

hourly delta and 32 lunar

Hourly delta (1h chart) points to further strenght until the end of the day (no.5 top) - then a pulback till 9.30 L time tomorrow.

32 lunar - 3rd month

no.3 top is most likely due today (2 days after the fullmoon) - no.4 bottom was 1-3 days long in previous cycyles.

1.6215 confirms bullish MTD sequence -

Patryk

Attachment 155627

Originally Posted by sratansi

i might close at 16177 and then see if there is anything for another rise to the 16270 range..not sure of the stop level though

makes sense you can always get back in later

Originally Posted by fazi

hourly delta and 32 lunar

Hourly delta (1h chart) points to further strenght until the end of the day (no.5 top) - then a pulback till 9.30 L time tomorrow.

32 lunar - 3rd month

no.3 top is most likely due today (2 days after the fullmoon) - no.4 bottom was 1-3 days long in previous cycyles.

1.6215 confirms bullish MTD sequence -

Patryk

Attachment 155627

Hi Mate!

I think its going higher today also with the strength in equities but I maybe wrong

GBP 5 min time frame is trying to turn bearish/flat as we break under 1.6161 (under MA20 now). But as you say good data should be supportive for stocks and for GBP/USD

Originally Posted by Alejandro Zambrano

GBP 5 min time frame is trying to turn bearish/flat as we break under 1.6161 (under MA20 now). But as you say good data should be supportive for stocks and for GBP/USD

Hi Mate!

Yes it's a tough call especially as it bounced of R2 but I think I will stick with it and see what this afternoon brings

Originally Posted by citytrader46

Hi Mate!

Yes it's a tough call especially as it bounced of R2 but I think I will stick with it and see what this afternoon brings

16145 I think I will add to my long now

seen the drop to 16140 area but it seems to be bouncing back up

Originally Posted by citytrader46

16145 I think I will add to my long now

Now I will close all my positions and take the profit

Originally Posted by citytrader46

Now I will close all my positions and take the profit

nice.. i lost 3 pips this afternoon (got my stop level too close without paying attention) but made a healthy 15 pips

now on another smash and grab trade looking for 10 pips

although there is a lot of resistance around 16155 area..

anyone think the bull run is going to slow down tonight or still worth the trade to be alive for it to go over 16180?

stop level is 16149 opened trade at 16165 looking to limit at 16185

London session review and outlook October 17 - 2012
Review of markets covered in today's edition of Bulls vs. Bears: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, FTSE100, S&P500, Gold, Brent Crude and WTI.



Regards

Alejandro Zambrano
Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London)

Originally Posted by sratansi

nice.. i lost 3 pips this afternoon (got my stop level too close without paying attention) but made a healthy 15 pips

now on another smash and grab trade looking for 10 pips

although there is a lot of resistance around 16170

Nice work! GL with it I'm out of everything now I'm only short oil

I've been looking at the 25 delta 1m risk reversals for GU and EU. Usually the the correlation between the levels and the spot price of GU and EU are highly correlated. That makes sense, as risk appetite weakens the USD then puts become less expensive relative to calls (though still more) as people feel less need to hedge downside. However over recent months the spot level of EU and GU has increased while the same sort of improvement (trade towards par) I'd expect in the risk reversals levels has not materialised. Simply that means people are still paying a premium for downside protection in EU and GU despite improved risk appetite. I am not saying the option market is correct here, but I do think it should serve as a warning that recent USD weakness hasn't got the buy in of all participants.

GL

With a a slight dip is the possibility of a long towards 16200 diminishing ?

Originally Posted by negativecarry

I've been looking at the 25 delta 1m risk reversals for GU and EU. Usually the the correlation between the levels and the spot price of GU and EU are highly correlated. That makes sense, as risk appetite weakens the USD then puts become less expensive relative to calls (though still more) as people feel less need to hedge downside. However over recent months the spot level of EU and GU has increased while the same sort of improvement (trade towards par) I'd expect in the risk reversals levels has not materialised. Simply that means people are still paying a premium for downside protection in EU and GU despite improved risk appetite. I am not saying the option market is correct here, but I do think it should serve as a warning that recent USD weakness hasn't got the buy in of all participants.

GL

That is not out of line - that is relevant (but you know this)

Even if GU takes out 1.6215 (which is likely given EU,EJ,GJ moves [but not confirmed]) there should be a top either by the end of the month or by mid november. I somehow find it hard to support further rally into mid nov, but perhaps Spanish bailout could come that late and keep the levtation just a little bit longer.

Patryk